Odaily Editorial Tea Chat (July 1st)

This is an "unofficial" column from inside the Odaily editorial department. Here, the author shares immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their finer details; explores investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses still under verification — which may not be direct "wealth passwords" but could just as well be the problems themselves; shares observations gained from exchanges with industry professionals; and presents materials that have genuinely enhanced our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.

The content of this column is based on the real investment and observational experiences of Odaily editorial members. It does not accept any form of commercial advertising, nor does it constitute investment advice (after all, we are also quite experienced in losing money). Its sole purpose is to broaden perspectives and supplement information sources, not to manufacture consensus. You are welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram Discussion Group, X Official Account) to discuss, question, and joke around with us.

Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng888)

Bio: Options enthusiast, Meme bag holder

Sharing: In terms of operations, I bought into Spacex (SpaceX?) around 150 last Friday. The logic was its inclusion in the Russell Index and the Nasdaq 100. The latter's effective date is July 6th, and I plan to sell before the deadline.

Also, Circle (CRCL), the leading stablecoin stock, suffered a wave of FUD last night. The Open Standard, backed by 140 companies, launched aggressively, planning to issue OUSD to capture a share of the stablecoin market, causing CRCL to plummet 17%. In my view, OUSD won't pose a major threat to USDC, and CRCL is worth buying on the dip: First, the model OUSD champions, where stablecoin reserve yields belong to partners, has been tried before by Paxos. Their USDG, launched in 2024, has a cumulative issuance of less than 3 billion, only 4% of USDC's market cap. The future prospects of OUSD are currently overstated. Second, USDC's compliance moat gives it a full cycle lead over competitors. Even if rivals retrace the same path and replicate the business model, it would take them over 5 years to truly go public successfully. Until then, CRCL remains the only stablecoin concept stock to buy.

Wenser (@wenser2010)

Bio: Tea-pouring junior, crypto sidelines player, media observer

Sharing: 1. Circle (CRCL) was hit hard by Open USD, with the stock price breaking below recent lows. But personally, I think OUSD, despite seemingly rallying 140+ institutions, won't necessarily win the large-scale application war in stablecoins. More institutions often mean more difficulty in coordination and integration. In the short term, it's highly dependent on inter-institutional cooperation. As for how well institutions cooperate, just think about the processes in traditional banks. So, I lean towards picking up some around 56~60, waiting for a rebound to 85~90. Although current performance is poor, CRCL's long-term target remains 150, mainly depending on the passage timeline of the Clarity Act.

2. Previously, Jukan from Citrini mentioned that memory is more important than GPU chips. I personally agree with this view. Therefore, Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix, and Samsung still hold monopolistic positions in the industry, including Changxin which IPO'd this month. Looking at the current 20%-25% correction from the highs, it's getting close to a stage for bottom-fishing and betting on a rebound.

3. Strategy announced a $1.25 billion stock sale plan. Suddenly, it feels like STRC (Strategy) might find an anchor again. When the forced selling reaches a certain point and market sentiment bottoms out, there's no more meat to cut. Coupled with subsequent dividend payments progressing, it could recover somewhat. It could be viewed as a financial management play, testing the waters with a small position. Not investment advice, just personal reference.

Azuma (@azuma_eth)

Bio: A novice, still learning

Sharing: My focus recently has mainly been on US stocks.

1. Semiconductors remain the world's main narrative. The benefits to the entire upstream equipment supply chain from the semiconductor capacity expansion cycle are the core of this narrative. Lithography oligopoly ASML, etching leader LRCX, deposition giant AMAT, and inspection powerhouse KLAC all hit new all-time highs collectively last night. Expensive, yes, but for good reasons, and the positive outlook is highly certain. Hundreds of billions of dollars in upcoming expansion orders will flow to these equipment suppliers (referencing South Korea's 800 trillion won expansion plan).

2. SK Hynix is about to list in the US. Its recent performance somewhat suggests an attempt to suppress the valuation (for a better post-IPO performance), but this also presents a decent bottom-fishing opportunity. I'm not considering Micron (MU) for now. After SK Hynix lists in the US, Micron's scarcity premium as the sole HBM pure play in the US market will be diluted. It's not that it won't rise, but its cost-effectiveness will be less than SK Hynix's.

3. I scooped up a small amount of Rocket Lab (RKLB) around 80-85. I wanted to buy more, but the stock rocketed after the news of the Iridium acquisition broke. RKLB is currently in a CEO-approved stock selling window. If there's another pullback, I'll continue to add to my position.

4. Continuing to hold Robinhood (HOOD). Nothing much to say. In June, it took only 3.5 weeks to hit an all-time high in stock trading volume. Prediction market revenue is also soaring. Performance support is strong enough; just need to give time for the price to break out.

5. I'm not so bullish on Circle (CRCL) for now. The Open USD launch is too aggressive. On the payment track, Stripe was already an obstacle for Circle. This time, Open USD clearly bears Stripe's fingerprints (the CEO of the issuing company behind Open USD is the founder of Bridge, a Stripe portfolio company). It's essentially Stripe choosing to challenge Circle head-on. Circle seemed caught off guard last night, with the CEO rambling. Let's see what defensive measures they take next.

Asher (@Asher_0210)

Bio: Regular schedule, long-term investor

Sharing: 1. Not taking significant positions in US stocks, patiently waiting for the crypto market bottom. My recent US stock trades have just been small experiments with the group, but since I didn't buy much, the gains or losses don't really matter. Personally, I feel the US stock market shows late-cycle characteristics, so I don't plan to increase positions now, skipping the final feast. For crypto, it's the same as before: patiently waiting for the bottom. I'll start dollar-cost averaging when BTC breaks below $50,000 and ETH breaks below $1,400. Simultaneously, I'll DCA into altcoins with high real revenue, such as HYPE, PUMP, etc.

2. My main focus remains on prediction markets. Lately, I'm obsessed with copy trading for predictions. As an airdrop farmer for early projects, my focus for the latter half of this year remains on prediction markets. Predict.fun is the main track; its value, tied so deeply to Binance, needs no elaboration. On Polymarket, I'm using the copy trading tool PPP to try and profit (recommended reading on using PPP: From Signal Monitoring to Strategy Copy Trading: How PPP Lowers the Barrier to Polymarket Trading? Link: https://www.odaily.news/zh-CN/post/5211528). For now, it's profitable one day, losing the next. The copy trading strategy is still being optimized. In other words, predict.fun trading is solely for airdrop hunting; Polymarket trading is solely for making a profit.