WSJ: Fake Websites, Fake Trades, Real Promotion – Polymarket's Traffic Scam

Originally published by WSJ, by Katherine Long, Caitlin Ostroff, Neil Mehta, and Brenna T. Smith

Compiled by Odaily (Qin Xiaofeng, @QinXiaofeng 888 )

Editor's Note: Recently, a Wall Street Journal investigation found that the prediction market platform Polymarket paid dozens of creators to produce fake trading and profit videos on simulated websites, using social media "bots" for viral promotion to attract US users. These videos did not disclose the paid relationship as required by federal regulations, and the "substantial returns" shown were entirely fabricated. Polymarket stated it is committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets and plans to conduct a comprehensive audit of its promotional content.

The following is the investigative article from the Wall Street Journal, compiled by Odaily. Enjoy~

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Judging from George Makihara's videos, he appears to have a lucrative side hustle betting on Polymarket.

In January, this college student posted a video showing him winning $100,000 by betting that President Trump would publicly say the word "McDonald's" that month.

According to his videos, from January to mid-May, George Makihara seemed to place 145 bets on the Polymarket site—totaling nearly $410,000.

But according to a Wall Street Journal investigation, none of these trades were real.

George Makihara jumps up when Trump says "McDonald's"; Trump never publicly said that word that month, and the video was filmed two months earlier.

Based on the Journal's analysis of over 1,100 videos, related instructional materials, and interviews with creators who have worked with the company, George Makihara is one of dozens of creators—mostly college students—paid by Polymarket to film themselves making fake trades, sometimes displaying fake profits. Makihara declined to comment.

Public data shows that on the actual Polymarket website, over 50 accounts participated in the "McDonald's" bet in January. All of these accounts lost money.

To attract users to its unregulated platform, Polymarket flooded social media with videos like Makihara's, which appear very realistic at first glance. In reality, Polymarket created near-perfect clones of its website, then instructed creators to simulate trades on these dummy sites and hide the fact that they were being paid by Polymarket.

To make videos go viral, Polymarket recruited a social media "army" to copy and reshare creator content. Although this New York-based company has been banned from offering its core crypto platform in the US since 2022, these social media creators were paid to target American users—who can still access the site via VPN.

Polymarket said in a statement, "The company is committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets. We are part of a fast-growing industry and are constantly evaluating how to improve the way we engage with and earn the trust of our audience." The company said it plans to conduct a comprehensive review of its existing promotional content.

Polymarket hired and worked closely with a marketing contractor to promote the site. In one message reviewed by the Journal, the contractor told its social media "army" to focus on resharing content from 10 Polymarket creators, including George Makihara. These creators initially did not identify themselves as paid Polymarket partners, though one included a $20 promo code in their bio. After the Journal began asking questions about the marketing operation, the creators started adding a "@polymarket partner" tag to their bios.

The Journal reviewed 1,105 videos posted between December 2025 and mid-May by the 10 creators endorsed by Polymarket's contractor. In 70% of the videos, creators placed bets; clues in the videos indicated all these bets—totaling $1.9 million—were fake. Most videos just showed the betting process, but 118 videos showed creators reacting to wins, totaling nearly $900,000 in winnings—entirely fictitious trades; if real, they would have resulted in losses exceeding $166,000. (Note: Polymarket has a data partnership with the Journal's publisher, Dow Jones. The Journal used only public data in this analysis.)

According to creators who have worked with the company, Polymarket instructed them not to disclose they were being paid. They said compensation typically ranged between $2,000 and $3,000 per month.

Investigating Fake Trades

One of the earliest videos showing signs of fake trades was posted to social media in June 2025, filmed at Polymarket's New York office. The video showed someone betting $100,000 that Powell would say "good afternoon" during a press conference, with the caption calling the bet a "valid manhood test."

The Journal investigation found over a dozen differences between the real Polymarket site and the simulation site.

The fake simulation site was called "poiymarket.com"; when the "i" is capitalized, it is indistinguishable from polymarket.com. According to a person familiar with the matter, the site was built by Polymarket. The price chart on the site credited a source as "Polymarket.com." But Polymarket's actual official website does not display any source information.

Additionally, the fake site sometimes displayed errors. For instance, buttons showed "YES" and "NIR" instead of the real site's "YES" and "NO".

Several videos reviewed by the Journal briefly flashed URLs showing the sites were test environments for Polymarket engineers. After the Journal contacted Polymarket for comment, the fake "poiymarket" site was taken down.

Federal advertising laws require brands to be truthful in their promotional content and require individuals paid to endorse products to disclose their relationship; though some gray areas exist regarding what is permissible. Commodities laws governing prediction markets also prohibit deceptive and misleading conduct.

A spokesperson for the Federal Trade Commission, which enforces advertising laws, declined to comment on the Journal's findings, citing the agency's policy of not commenting on potential investigations.

Razeen Khan, a California college student who worked as a Polymarket creator for several months until March, compared the videos to fast-food ads—where the food looks more appealing than in reality.

"We're showing what actually happens," he said. "You're still going to buy the burger."

Creators said they would send their finished videos to Polymarket for review. If a video wasn't engaging enough or showed obvious signs of faking, Polymarket would ask for a reshoot.

Haian Nguyen, one of Polymarket's top-performing creators, filmed herself trading on the platform from her bedroom in San Francisco. In a video posted to Instagram, Nguyen celebrated winning $60,000 after betting Trump would say "Olympics."

Another video of her dancing on a beach near the Golden Gate Bridge had the text "Polymarket funds my life" superimposed.

Haian Nguyen declined to comment and deleted all videos from her personal page after the Journal contacted her.

These promotional videos followed the same template: the creator opens Polymarket, places a bet, and calls the winnings "free money." Dozens of social media creators posted videos with nearly identical formats. According to creators who have worked with the company and a recruitment website, Polymarket provided creators with bullet-pointed talking points.

Common phrases used in Polymarket user-generated content videos are as follows:

Nearly 25% of the videos used the word "free." Common phrases included "free bread," "free money," and "it's free."

• "Bro, if this trend continues, it's free bread." — 27 videos
• "Wait, what?" — 223 videos
• Free — 278 videos
• "Isn't this free money?"
• "If I bet a thousand dollars on Canada winning, isn't that free money?" — 35 videos
• "Am I missing something?" — 237 videos
• "Bro, what?" — 166 videos
• "Wait" — 100 videos

Source: Journal analysis of 1,105 Polymarket creator videos on TikTok

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates prediction markets, has previously taken enforcement action against companies using simulated trading to promote products and make unrealistic profit promises.

The Trump administration has taken a lenient approach to regulating prediction markets. The CFTC has filed multiple lawsuits to prevent states from regulating and taxing prediction markets. Trump recently posted on Truth Social that it is "vital" for the CFTC to have exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets to allow them to flourish, calling politicians who want states to regulate prediction markets "scumbags." Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr., is an investor in Polymarket and a paid advisor to rival Kalshi.

A White House spokesperson said there was no conflict of interest and that Trump's actions are in the best interests of the American public. A CFTC spokesperson, responding to the Journal's report, said it is important to bring offshore prediction markets back to the US so regulators can oversee them more effectively.

The Hype Machine

For Polymarket, going viral is everything.

According to two people familiar with his thinking, founder Shayne Coplan told Polymarket's growth team to make the company impossible to ignore on the internet. Matthew Modabber, a close friend since high school, served as Chief Marketing Officer responsible for Polymarket's growth.

In 2024, Matthew Modabber (left) with Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan (right)

Polymarket is striving to attract more volume than its main competitor, the US-regulated prediction market Kalshi. Polymarket started ahead; for much of 2025, they grew in tandem; but in recent months, Kalshi has pulled ahead. According to data provider The Block, Kalshi's volume last month was roughly double that of Polymarket.

Monthly Trading Volume by Prediction Market, data as of end of May 2026; Source: The Block

In 2022, Polymarket settled charges of operating an unregistered options exchange, agreeing to stop offering its crypto-based trading services to US customers and formally re-domiciling in Panama. Late last year, it launched a regulated US version, available only as a mobile app. The app's volume is a fraction of the offshore crypto exchange.

According to a person familiar with the matter, Polymarket is now seeking to overturn the outcome of the 2022 settlement and bring its crypto platform back to the US.

Meanwhile, it is turning to social media to funnel Americans into Polymarket.

Polymarket's Social Media 'Army'

Polymarket's strategy leverages three groups of social media producers to generate viral attention for the platform as a source of quick, easy money.

• Streamers: Internet personalities who broadcast live on platforms like Twitch and Kick, discussing Polymarket and sometimes trading, for hours at a time.
• Creators: Social media users, mostly college students, who produce short-form videos talking about Polymarket or making trades.
• Editors (often referred to as "clippers"): People around the world—especially teenagers in Asia—who reshare streamer and creator videos.

Polymarket hired the marketing firm Virality to manage the "clipper" team. Their promotional efforts targeted Americans: according to instructional materials, as of early June, the clipper team was only paid when their audience was at least 60% US-based.

Polymarket publicly distances itself from these ads. According to the Journal's investigation of nearly 20,000 messages in Polymarket's online content creator contractor chat groups, as well as instructional documents and videos prepared for them, Virality required clipper posts to look "personal and natural."

"Guys, if your account name contains 'Polymarket,' please rename and delete it as soon as possible," a Virality employee told a group of clippers in a chat. "Continuing to use it will violate our guidelines and may lead to submissions being rejected. Even 'poly' is not allowed; change that too." Virality declined to comment.

Virality's clipping campaigns were highly effective.

A video posted by a Polymarket creator on TikTok had only 151 views by mid-May. The clipper team reshared his video using secondary accounts, but most reposts gained almost no traction, garnering very few views. However, Polymarket works with many video editors to increase the chances of a video going viral. Eventually, one video always hits.

According to data from analytics provider Tubular, Polymarket's viral clipping campaigns generated over 140 million cumulative views across TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram.

A TikTok US spokesperson said that several accounts identified by the Journal, along with other related accounts, had been restricted for violating platform rules. A YouTube spokesperson said creators and brands must comply with legal obligations, and YouTube may take action against them if they do not. A Meta spokesperson said that while the platform requires creators to disclose if they are paid to promote or endorse products, it could not confirm whether this specific content violated its policies, as it had not independently verified that these creators were paid by Polymarket.

Influencer Live Streams

Polymarket and Virality targeted dozens of videos from Adin Ross for promotion. Ross, a 25-year-old "manosphere" influencer with millions of followers, has a multi-million dollar agreement with Polymarket, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. He spends an average of half an hour per live stream browsing Polymarket and commenting on potential trades.

In at least five videos, Ross pointed out how he uses inside information to trade on the platform.