CARDS Surges 5x in 2 Months: Is On-Chain TCG the Next Big Narrative After HYPE?

Since mid-April this year, the token $CARDS of Collector Cards, a TCG card marketplace/card pack opening platform on Solana, has surged over 5 times. Currently, the circulating market cap of $CARDS is approximately $60 million, with an FDV of about $468 million.

Achieving such market performance in a year when the crypto market lacks narratives and prices are sluggish is undoubtedly remarkable. Let's first analyze why Collector Cards has managed to buck the trend and show strong performance, then take a broader look at the current on-chain TCG card track.

Reasons for Collector Cards' Rise: Genuinely Profitable

It might come as a surprise, but Collector Cards is currently almost the second most profitable dApp on Solana, trailing only pump.fun.

According to DefiLlama data, whether looking at the past 7 days or the past 30 days, Collector Cards' revenue firmly holds the 2nd position among Solana dApps. Over the past 7 days, Collector Cards generated $3.86 million in revenue, and over the past 30 days, $9.48 million.

This revenue figure surpasses well-known Solana dApps like Axiom, Phantom Wallet, Jupiter, and Meteora.

Furthermore, this revenue performance is highly competitive even across the entire cryptocurrency landscape. In the past 7 days, Collector Cards ranked 7th in revenue among crypto projects, and 10th over the past 30 days. Excluding stablecoin projects like Tether and Circle, and Polymarket, Collector Cards is arguably the next best crypto-native "money printer" after Hyperliquid and pump.fun.

The revenue composition of Collector Cards is straightforward: one part comes from card pack openings, and the other from trading fees on the card marketplace. These two revenue streams are highly imbalanced. For example, in May, the total volume of card pack sales was approximately $194.7 million, while the total trading volume on the marketplace was only about $205,000.

Although card pack sales are incredibly popular, this system functions like a "Gacha-style lottery machine." Many players, upon opening packs and finding their cards are not valuable, immediately sell them back to the platform at a discount. The repurchase price ratio varies between different packs. Generally, for lower-priced, high-volume packs like the $25 or $50 draw packs, the platform repurchases at 85% of the value. For higher-priced packs like the $2500 draw, the repurchase rate is 93%.

While the total volume of card pack sales is substantial, a large number of players immediately sell their common, low-value cards back to the platform. After accounting for this, the remaining profit aligns with the revenue figures presented at the beginning of this section.

One might wonder, are there really this many people coming on-chain to engage in this soft gambling-style card pack opening?

Let's not jump to conclusions and look at the data. To date, Collector Cards has had 23,733 unique users participate in card pack openings, with an average spending of $26,843.71 per wallet on packs. The total number of pack openings exceeds 4.87 million, averaging over 205 openings per unique user.

Nearly 60% of users have spent over $250 on card pack openings, and 109 users have spent over $1 million.

While these figures are impressive, it's essential to consider that the points accumulated by players through pack openings are the core metric determining their quarterly $CARDS airdrop allocation. The project has explicitly stated that points earned in the current quarter are more important than the total accumulated points.

So far, $CARDS has completed three quarterly airdrops, distributing 0.75% of the total token supply to platform players each time. This mirrors the situation during the NFT boom where many people endured trading losses to accumulate Blur points.

Thus, while Collector Cards is genuinely profitable, this revenue level is undoubtedly amplified by the potential for future token airdrop rewards. However, this "amplification" is not meant as a criticism or a long-term bearish view; rather, it confirms the success of its flywheel effect.

Leveraging this successful token incentive strategy, Collector Cards has dethroned its former rival in the same track, Courtyard on Polygon. Its market share in card pack openings has stabilized above 50%, even reaching 83.6% in the most recent week.

Looking at revenue data, Courtyard generated $1.14 million in the past 7 days and $6.99 million over the past 30 days. Given that Courtyard has not issued a token or implemented token incentives, its revenue data actually proves that the demand for on-chain card pack opening is genuine. The competitive advantage amplified by tokens, if executed with good timing and sustained over a long period, can also be beneficial for long-term user retention.

Returning to the discussion on $CARDS' strong price performance. Besides the project's intrinsic profitability, it is currently the only investable token in its track. Collector Cards' cumulative total transaction volume has exceeded $1 billion. Other projects in the same track, like Courtyard, have a cumulative total volume exceeding $1.1 billion, Phygitals over $336 million, and Beeize on Base surpassed $100 million within just four months.

The market for Pokémon cards is immense, sufficient to support the scale of these on-chain card pack opening platforms. Over the past year, according to pokeca-soken data, the market price for individual Pokémon cards has shown a continuous upward trend.

As of March 2025, over 75 billion Pokémon cards have been produced cumulatively, sold in more than 90 countries. In the fiscal year 2024-2025, sales reached ¥410.9 billion, a 38.1% increase year-over-year. Its digital product, Pokémon TCG Pocket, generated over $1.3 billion in revenue within its first year of launch.

Especially after the launch of "Pokémon Trading Card Game Pocket" in the fall of 2024, demand for physical cards surged, leading to widespread shortages and scalping. The Pokémon Company is constructing a new printing facility spanning 1.27 million square feet, expected to begin production by the end of 2028.

In February 2026, famous YouTuber and WWE star Logan Paul privately purchased the only PSA GEM MT 10 perfect-condition Pokémon card in 2021 for approximately $5.275 million. It was later auctioned at Goldin Auctions, ultimately selling for around $16.5 million.

Opening card packs on-chain eliminates the need to buy physical packs offline. Players can immediately sell unwanted common cards back to the platform or claim the physical cards for desired ones. This convenience undoubtedly appeals to many dedicated Pokémon card fans. Viewing the platform's growth solely through the lens of "gambling" overlooks the vast young market and genuine demand for Pokémon cards themselves.

Furthermore, a buyback program for $CARDS is already underway. However, the project team has stated they need to wait for the CLARITY Act to be enacted before disclosing further details.

Other Types of TCG Card Projects

After analyzing $CARDS, it's clear that card pack opening is the most profitable business in the current on-chain TCG card market. However, this isn't the only model; other directions exist as well.

Card Fractionalization

This direction differs from the earlier NFT fractionalization trend that focused mainly on on-chain DeFi or speculation. The premise is that rare and expensive cards are genuinely difficult to collect and invest in, yet they have long-term, real market demand and price support. However, this also means the demand scale is not as vast as card pack opening. It targets more hardcore collectors and investors who prefer investing in rare cards for potentially outsized returns rather than relying on luck.

Recently, projects in this category gaining more attention include Grail on Base and $SV151 on Solana, jointly launched by Sunrise and Meteora. A token representing a Cristiano Ronaldo card on Grail surged nearly 100-fold from its price on May 5th, while a Kylian Mbappé card token surged nearly 300-fold from its price on the same date.

Meanwhile, $SV151 tokenized the out-of-print SV151 set, featuring the original 151 Pokémon, and its market cap briefly exceeded $3 million.

The biggest problem for these projects is the limited narrative potential. Their token market cap is tied to the actual storage value of the underlying cards, making it difficult to convince on-chain players to generate significant speculative premiums. Both fractionalized card tokens on Grail and $SV151 have experienced rapid declines after initial hype, settling at price ranges corresponding to the actual card values. For instance, $SV151 announced purchasing approximately $185,000 worth of equivalent card assets, yet its market cap hovers around $600,000 – representing a several-fold premium logically.

Card Pack Lottery

If card pack opening is seen as gambling, this type of token adds another layer of gambling on top.

The most typical example is $GACHA. Transaction fees are used to open card packs. Every hour, a lucky holder is selected to receive all the cards opened during that period. Alternatively, users deposit USD via credit card, which is used to open packs. The total prize pool is awarded to one player based on the proportional share of USD contributed by different participants.

Meme Collection Vaults

This category mainly consists of two types.

One example is $PIKA, which specializes in opening Pikachu-themed card packs across various on-chain platforms. It has accumulated approximately $85,000 worth of Pikachu cards and related collectibles, functioning somewhat like a "Pikachu Cultural Fund."

Another example is $KABUTO. This token experienced speculative hype late last year. It originated from a collector frantically buying up first-edition Kabuto (Pokémon's "Kabuto") cards. A meme coin was then created, with all creator fees used to purchase more Kabuto cards.

Card Perpetual Contracts

This direction suffered a blow to user confidence due to Trove's rug pull earlier this year. However, some smaller projects are still being developed, such as $POKE on Solana.

Overall, aside from the card pack opening model, other directions within the on-chain TCG card space have seen little progress. However, if the profitability of the on-chain TCG card track gains more recognition as a core narrative, new opportunities might emerge in these other areas.