Unitree Robotics IPO Pricing Preview: How Much Is This Robotics Company Really Worth?

Overview

Unitree Technology's offering price will be revealed on August 6, potentially making it the most anticipated pricing moment for A-shares in 2026. According to the company's disclosed issuance plan, it plans to issue 40.4464 million new shares and raise approximately RMB 4.2 billion, implying an offering price of around RMB 104 per share and a post-issuance base valuation of approximately RMB 42 billion (about USD 6.2 billion). But almost no one expects the stock price to stay at this level. The precedent of CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) surging 466% on its STAR Market debut on July 27 has already pushed market discussions of Unitree's secondary market price to the RMB 100 billion level. On one side sits the real fundamental picture of RMB 1.708 billion in 2025 revenue and RMB 600 million in non-GAAP net profit; on the other, the rumored USD 39 billion private valuation of America's Figure AI, which has no meaningful revenue. Unitree's pricing falls precisely between these two extremes. Where the offering price lands, and where the market pushes it after listing, will mark the first time the global humanoid robotics track receives an answer written by public markets.

Key Points

Unitree Technology's preliminary inquiry takes place on August 5, with the offering price to be officially confirmed on August 6. Online and offline subscription opens simultaneously on August 10, with issuance results announced on August 14. Industry expectations place the listing around August 19, with the official date subject to announcements from the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Based on the RMB 4.2 billion fundraising target and the 40.4464 million shares to be issued, the offering price is estimated at approximately RMB 104 per share, corresponding to a post-issuance base valuation of approximately RMB 42 billion (about USD 6.2 billion). This calculation is based on the public issuance plan; the final price shall be subject to the August 6 announcement.

Based on 2025 non-GAAP net profit of RMB 600.1 million, the RMB 42 billion valuation corresponds to a P/E ratio of approximately 70x. Based on 2025 revenue of RMB 1.708 billion, it translates to a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 25x. If the secondary market pushes the valuation to RMB 100 billion as some discussions suggest, the P/E ratio would exceed 160x.

The valuation reference frame is extremely fragmented. America's Figure AI is rumored to hold a private valuation of up to USD 39 billion (approximately RMB 280 billion) despite lacking meaningful revenue, while Hong Kong-listed UBTech has remained consistently loss-making. Unitree stands as the only profitable target with meaningful shipment volume among the three.

Fundamentals are being pulled in both directions. In 2025, revenue grew 335% with a gross margin of 60.27%, and humanoid robot shipments of 5,500 units ranked first globally. However, growth slowed to approximately 40% in the first half of 2026, with non-GAAP net profit expected to decline 6% to 22% year-over-year. The average selling price of humanoid robots has already fallen from RMB 590,000 to RMB 166,400.

CXMT's 466% debut surge and the U.S. import restrictions on foreign-made robots constitute two opposing variables in the pricing environment. A free-float of only 10% will amplify volatility in the early listing period.

How the Offering Price Is Calculated

Let's first clarify what has been confirmed versus what remains undecided. According to Gasgoo's report, Unitree will issue 40.4464 million shares, representing 10% of total post-issuance share capital, all new shares. The preliminary inquiry takes place on August 5, with online and offline subscriptions opening simultaneously on August 10. CITIC Securities serves as the sponsor and lead underwriter. According to South China Morning Post's report, the offering price will be determined on August 6, the day after the inquiry, with final issuance results announced on August 14.

Dividing the fundraising target by the number of shares issued yields an implied reference point: approximately RMB 4.2 billion raised against 40.4464 million shares, or roughly RMB 104 per share. Post-issuance total share capital is approximately 404 million shares, corresponding to a base valuation of approximately RMB 42 billion. It must be emphasized that this is an arithmetic estimate based on the public issuance plan. The actual results of institutional inquiries may come in higher or lower than this level; everything is subject to the official pricing announcement on August 6. The STAR Market employs a market-oriented inquiry mechanism, with the final price determined by the distribution of quotes from offline institutional investors. Current market sentiment will likely push quotes toward the upper end of the range.

Is RMB 42 Billion Expensive? Measuring with Three Yardsticks

First Yardstick: Its Own Profitability and Growth

According to Tech Market Briefs' review of the prospectus, Unitree recorded 2025 revenue of RMB 1.708 billion, up 335% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 60.27% and non-GAAP net profit of RMB 600.1 million. At a RMB 42 billion valuation, this corresponds to approximately 70x 2025 non-GAAP P/E and approximately 25x price-to-sales. For a company that grew 335% last year, a 70x P/E is not unreasonable. The problem lies in the changing slope of growth. According to BigGo Finance's analysis, revenue growth in the first half of 2026 is expected to moderate to approximately 35.6% to 45.4%, with non-GAAP net profit expected to decline 6% to 22% year-over-year. First-quarter net profit attributable to parent company has already declined 47.69% year-over-year. Using this year's dynamic earnings, the valuation multiple would be significantly higher than 70x. If the secondary market pushes the valuation to RMB 100 billion as some discussions suggest, the 2025 static P/E would exceed 160x — a level that would require humanoid robots to deliver exponential volume growth over the coming years to be digested.

Second Yardstick: Global Peer Pricing

The fragmentation of the reference frame is rarely seen. America's Figure AI, despite lacking meaningful revenue, is rumored to hold a private valuation of up to USD 39 billion, approximately RMB 280 billion — more than six times Unitree's issuance valuation. Hong Kong-listed UBTech demonstrates the other extreme, having remained loss-making since listing as a humanoid robotics company. Unitree sits in between, being the world's only target that simultaneously possesses profitability, meaningful shipment volume (5,500 humanoid robots in 2025, with a 32.4% global share ranking first), and 60% gross margin. If the market prices Unitree according to Figure AI's logic, RMB 42 billion looks cheap. If priced according to traditional manufacturing earnings discounting, RMB 42 billion is already full. This divergence is itself the source of post-listing volatility.

Third Yardstick: STAR Market Sentiment Temperature

According to TechTimes' analysis, CXMT surged 466% on its STAR Market debut on July 27, closing at RMB 49 against an offering price of RMB 8.66, with a market cap briefly reaching approximately USD 490 billion. The ignited new-subscription sentiment is expected to flow into Unitree's subscription. With only 10% of new shares being issued, the actual free float is quite small, and sentiment's leverage on price will be further amplified. It is worth being sober-minded in comparison: CXMT's industry logic is the certainty narrative of memory supply remaining tight through 2028, whereas Unitree faces early-stage commercialization slowing and price wars. The two are not comparable.

The Business Model Question Behind Halved Average Prices

The ultimate arbiter of valuation is unit economics. The prospectus shows that Unitree's average selling price for humanoid robots has fallen from RMB 590,000 to RMB 166,400 — a decline of over 70%. This is an active strategy of trading price for volume, with the G1 humanoid robot's approximately USD 13,500 price point being the most aggressive globally. The premise for this strategy to work is that cost declines from scale expansion outpace selling price declines, thereby defending the 60% gross margin. The company attributes the first-half 2026 profit decline primarily to a significant increase in R&D and selling expenses (first-quarter R&D expenses increased by RMB 38.33 million year-over-year, alongside investments in major brand promotions including CCTV Spring Festival Gala appearances), rather than gross margin collapse — a relatively healthy signal. But once price wars are initiated by industry competition rather than the company's own initiative, the logic reverses. The combination of average selling price and gross margin in each quarterly report following listing will be the core data validating whether RMB 42 billion — or even higher — valuations can hold.

Another variable lies overseas. Two days before the issuance launch, the U.S. announced import restrictions on foreign-made humanoid and quadruped robots, effectively closing one of Unitree's largest addressable export markets. Domestic policy orders (the deployment requirement of 10,000 humanoid robots by end of 2026) can fill the gap short-term, but a hardware company with a severed major overseas market should inherently carry a geopolitical discount in its valuation. Current pricing discussions barely reflect this.

What It Means for Investors

For investors able to participate in A-share new listings, the core judgment concerns the relationship between the offering price and sentiment. If the August 6 pricing comes in significantly above the RMB 104 implied reference, it suggests institutions have already digested part of the premium in advance, compressing first-day upside. If pricing lands near the baseline, combined with the 10% small free float and the sentiment ignited by CXMT, the probability of a substantial first-day surge is not low. However, the risk of chasing highs is equally proportional to the gain.

For global investors unable to participate in the subscription, Unitree's post-listing valuation multiples will serve as the public yardstick for the entire robotics and embodied intelligence track, directly influencing pricing references for U.S. robotics concept stocks, related ETFs, and even AI and robotics-themed tokens in the crypto market. Some platforms have already introduced derivatives tools around this target. MEXC has listed USDT-settled Unitree-related futures contracts that can be used to track market expectations of its price around the listing. Such contracts are highly volatile; participants must fully understand the product mechanics and strictly control leverage before engaging.

Key Points to Watch and Potential Risks

Four Verification Points in the Pricing Chain

The August 6 offering price announcement is the first verification point — where institutional quotes sit relative to the RMB 104 implied reference represents professional capital's true vote on valuation. The August 10 subscription multiple is the second — the magnitude of oversubscription will foreshadow the degree of supply-demand imbalance on day one. The opening and closing prices on the listing day (industry expectation around August 19) constitute the third point, establishing the track's public valuation anchor. The first quarterly report after listing is the fourth — overseas revenue share, humanoid robot average selling price, and gross margin will begin testing the distance between sentiment-driven pricing and fundamentals.

Risks That Need to Be Priced In

Valuation risk ranks first. If day one replicates CXMT's surge, the stock will trade at levels requiring years of high growth to digest, while the company itself has flagged that growth may slow. Second is competition and pricing risk — the 70% decline in average selling price indicates industry price wars have begun, and any gross margin deterioration would directly impact valuation models. Third is geopolitical risk — the actual impact of U.S. import restrictions will manifest in subsequent order data. Fourth is liquidity structure risk — the 10% free float will equally amplify downside when sentiment reverses. Two-way extreme volatility is the norm for such new listings, not the exception.

James Mitchell's Exclusive View

What truly matters about this pricing is that it will for the first time pull humanoid robotics valuation from narrative back to arithmetic. RMB 42 billion corresponds to 70x 2025 non-GAAP P/E and 25x price-to-sales. These numbers themselves are not extreme. What is extreme are the reference points on both sides: Figure AI's revenue-free private valuation of approximately RMB 280 billion on one side, and UBTech's persistent losses on the other. Unitree's public pricing will force the entire track to answer a question that could previously be avoided: should the reasonable multiple for a humanoid robotics company be anchored to a software platform or high-end manufacturing? My judgment is that the market will price it according to the former in the short term and converge toward the latter over the long term. This convergence process is the source of volatility.

There are two places where the market may misread. First, treating the RMB 104 implied reference price as the official offering price. It is merely the arithmetic result of dividing the fundraising target by the number of shares issued. The actual outcome of institutional inquiries on August 6 may deviate significantly. Treating an estimate as a commitment is the most common mistake in new listing analysis. Second, treating "profitability" as a safety cushion. Unitree is indeed a rare profitable company in the track, but the guidance of 6% to 22% year-over-year decline in first-half 2026 non-GAAP net profit indicates that the direction of profitability is diverging from the direction of valuation. Buying a company with declining profits at 70x P/E is a completely different risk exposure from buying a company with doubling profits.

The chain of three numbers investors should watch most closely is: the premium of the August 6 offering price relative to RMB 104, the August 10 subscription multiple, and the turnover structure on the first day of listing. From a quantitative perspective, the first two jointly determine the degree of supply-demand imbalance on day one, while first-day turnover reveals the realization pace of subscription capital. Together, these three numbers can better predict the path one month after listing than any valuation model.

The takeaway for cross-asset investors is that Unitree's pricing process serves as a real-time sample of how "narrative assets get repriced by public markets" — a process highly isomorphic with the crypto market. When an asset that only has primary market pricing (whether pre-IPO equity or early-stage tokens) transitions to continuous public pricing, the recurring pattern is volatility rising first and then falling, with valuation converging toward cash flow. Understanding Unitree's price discovery process over the coming weeks has direct methodological value for judging any asset moving from private narrative to public validation, including AI and robotics-themed projects in the crypto space. Before the anchor is established, respecting volatility and controlling position size matters more than predicting price levels.

FAQ

What is Unitree Technology's IPO offering price?

The offering price has not been officially confirmed and will be announced on August 6 after the preliminary inquiry (August 5) is completed. Based on the company's disclosed fundraising target of approximately RMB 4.2 billion and the 40.4464 million shares to be issued, the implied reference price is approximately RMB 104 per share, corresponding to a post-issuance base valuation of approximately RMB 42 billion. It must be emphasized that this is only an arithmetic estimate based on the public issuance plan. The STAR Market employs a market-oriented inquiry mechanism, and the final price is determined by institutional quotes. Everything is subject to the official pricing announcement.

What multiples does the RMB 42 billion valuation correspond to?

Based on 2025 non-GAAP net profit of RMB 600.1 million, the RMB 42 billion valuation corresponds to approximately 70x static P/E. Based on 2025 revenue of RMB 1.708 billion, it translates to approximately 25x price-to-sales. If the secondary market pushes the valuation to RMB 100 billion as some discussions suggest, the 2025 static P/E would exceed 160x. Considering that first-half 2026 non-GAAP net profit is expected to decline 6% to 22% year-over-year, the multiple calculated on dynamic earnings would be even higher. Valuation digestion depends on humanoid robot volume growth materializing over the coming years.

Is Unitree or Figure AI worth more?

The two represent different valuation logics. Figure AI, despite lacking meaningful revenue, is rumored to hold a private valuation of up to USD 39 billion (approximately RMB 280 billion), with its pricing based on long-term narrative. Unitree's issuance valuation is approximately RMB 42 billion, but it possesses RMB 1.708 billion in 2025 revenue, RMB 600 million in non-GAAP net profit, 5,500 humanoid robot shipments, and a 60.27% gross margin. Unitree's public listing will provide the first benchmark continuously priced by the market. The enormous gap between the two valuations itself demonstrates that pricing systems in this track have yet to converge.

Why is the human