Gate Research: Under the Epic IPO Wave, Can Pre-IPO Tokens Open the Era of Retail Investors in the Primary Market?

Summary

In 2026, the global capital market is experiencing an unprecedented "IPO super cycle." Leading private tech companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are advancing their initial public offering (IPO) plans. Among them, SpaceX has a target valuation of up to $2 trillion and plans to raise $75 billion, potentially making it the largest IPO in history. Meanwhile, OpenAI and Anthropic have already surpassed or are approaching a $1 trillion valuation in the private market. This unprecedented capital bonanza will not only reshape the landscape of traditional financial markets but will also have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market.

This article delves into the multi-dimensional impact of this macro event on the crypto market. First, we analyze the potential short-term liquidity shock from the massive IPO capital absorption effect. Secondly, we focus on how the crypto market, through innovative mechanisms such as Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization and Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs), provides retail and institutional investors with on-chain access to Pre-IPO investments in top tech companies. Finally, we systematically compare the Pre-IPO product launched by Gate and project the long-term impact of this trend on the future trading landscape.

1. The Capital Market's Super Cycle

The 2026 capital market is destined to be etched in history. After years of high-interest rates and a reshaping of primary market valuations, the world's three most influential private tech enterprises—SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic—are accelerating their IPO plans. This wave of IPOs, dubbed the "super cycle," will not only break historical records in terms of fundraising scale but will also profoundly influence the pricing logic of global asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.

1.1 SpaceX: The Space Giant Challenging a $2 Trillion Valuation

SpaceX is an American commercial aerospace company founded by Elon Musk, with core businesses including reusable rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, and deep space exploration with human spaceflight. On April 1, 2026, SpaceX confidentially filed IPO registration documents with the U.S. SEC, officially initiating the listing process. Subsequently, SpaceX publicly disclosed its S-1 prospectus on May 20, 2026, further clarifying the listing progress. The market widely expects it to list on the Nasdaq as soon as June 2026, under the ticker symbol "SPCX."

SpaceX's IPO could become the largest public offering in global history. Multiple reports suggest a potential fundraising size of around $75 billion, with a valuation range between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, and some market communications even point towards a valuation above $2 trillion.

If this target is achieved, SpaceX's IPO would overwhelmingly break the $29.4 billion fundraising record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019. In comparison, SpaceX's anticipated fundraising of $75 billion would make it one of the most iconic IPOs in the history of global capital markets.

Supporting this staggering valuation is the strong growth and vertical integration of SpaceX's three core businesses:

• Starlink: SpaceX's global satellite internet business, providing high-speed broadband connectivity to users worldwide via a low-Earth orbit satellite network.

• Launch Services (Falcon Rocket / Starship): SpaceX's aerospace launch business, responsible for launching satellites, cargo, crewed spaceflights, and deep space missions, serving as one of the company's core revenue sources.

• Starshield: SpaceX's military aerospace business for government and defense clients, providing satellite communication, remote sensing, and national security-related infrastructure services.

Among these, Starlink, the world's fastest-growing satellite internet service, surpassed 10 million active users in early 2026, with projected revenue exceeding $20 billion for 2026, and achieved cash flow breakeven in 2023. In launch services, SpaceX completed 165 orbital launches in 2025, deploying approximately 85% of the world's spacecraft, with its Falcon 9 rocket reducing launch costs to below $1,000 per kilogram. Regarding core AI business, SpaceX merged with Musk's xAI in February 2026, integrating aerospace launch, global communications, and AI model infrastructure under one entity. Additionally, Musk has proposed an ambitious vision of launching 100 gigawatts of AI computing power annually.

1.2 OpenAI and Anthropic: The AI Duopoly Approaching Trillion-Dollar Valuations

While SpaceX advances its IPO, two giants in the AI field, OpenAI and Anthropic, are engaged in fierce competition in the capital market. OpenAI is an AI company focused on researching and developing Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), with core products including ChatGPT, the GPT series of models, and a multimodal AI platform. OpenAI's commercialization has been extremely rapid, with annualized revenue surging from approximately $200 million in 2022 to over $10 billion in 2025. Based on trading data of tokenized SPV assets on the Jupiter chain, OpenAI's implied valuation reached $1 trillion in April 2026, a 163% increase since October 2025. Currently, OpenAI plans to conduct its IPO as early as Q4 2026.

Anthropic is an AI company founded by former OpenAI members, focusing on developing the Claude series of large language models that emphasize safety, controllability, and long-term alignment. Anthropic's recent valuation surge has also been remarkable. In February 2026, the company achieved a post-money valuation of $380 billion in its Series G funding round. However, just three months later, according to data from secondary market platforms like Forge Global, Anthropic's valuation surged to approximately $1 trillion, surpassing OpenAI (which traded at a valuation of around $880 billion on Forge) for the first time in the secondary market. This surge is primarily attributed to the widespread adoption of its enterprise-level code tool, Claude Code, which propelled its annualized revenue from $9 billion at the end of 2025 to $30 billion in March 2026, a single-quarter increase of 233%. The market currently anticipates Anthropic could launch its IPO as early as October 2026, potentially raising over $60 billion.

The concurrent listing of these three giants means that assets totaling nearly $4 trillion will gradually enter the public market. The capital diversion effect will inevitably impact various risk assets, including the crypto market.

2. Profound Impact on Crypto Market Liquidity and Trading Landscape

When hard-tech assets with high certainty and growth potential like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic enter the public market, they inevitably trigger a reallocation of capital—bringing short-term capital outflow pressure in the near term, while providing new catalysts for the pricing logic and infrastructure integration of crypto assets in the long term.

2.1 Short-Term Capital Absorption Effect and Transmission Mechanism

Regarding the short-term capital absorption effect, during the subscription period and initial listing phase of these giant IPOs (expected in H2 2026), institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals often need to raise significant cash to secure allocated shares. This liquidity demand may cause some capital to flow out of high-risk assets like the crypto market. Specifically, crypto funds and family offices that have profited handsomely from the previous bull run might choose to take profits on some crypto assets to invest in these once-in-a-century tech unicorns.

However, to determine the potential magnitude of this specific siphoning effect, one must first anchor the fundraising volumes of the three major IPOs. Based on current secondary market valuations: SpaceX's latest funding round corresponds to a valuation of about $2 trillion, OpenAI about $1 trillion, and Anthropic about $1 trillion. Even if all three adopt a conservative public float ratio of 10–15%, the total new share issuance could reach between $400 billion and $600 billion. When combined with potential stake sales by major shareholders, the actual capital demand would be further amplified.

The process for institutional investors participating in large IPOs isn't simply using idle cash; it involves a systematic liquidity management logic. First, the subscription and allocation system requires institutions to pay deposits or full funds to the underwriters during the subscription period, with a capital lock-up window typically from T-5 to T+1. Second, for highly sought-after IPOs with a high probability of oversubscription, institutions tend to over-subscribe, further amplifying short-term cash needs. Third, family offices and hedge funds commonly use risk assets (including crypto assets) as liquidity reserves; when cash demands surge, these assets are often the first to be reduced. This transmission chain can be simplified as: Surge in IPO subscription demand → Institutions raise cash → Net selling of crypto assets → Increase in fiat withdrawals from exchanges, stablecoin market cap under pressure → Unidirectional capital flow towards the stock market.

While historical samples of this magnitude are scarce, some partial cases offer reference points. For instance, on the day of Coinbase's listing in April 2021, Bitcoin hit an all-time high near $64,000 before immediately correcting over 50%. Some analysts considered this a classic case of "buy the rumor, sell the news," where institutions tend to collectively take profits after the event rather than continue buying. Similarly, during Alibaba's IPO in 2014, global emerging market funds experienced a noticeable, temporary outflow. Before Facebook's IPO in 2012, the Nasdaq index, represented by tech growth stocks, saw a structural correction of about 5% in the two weeks before the subscription window, attributed to institutions rebalancing portfolios to free up cash.

2.2 Long-Term Wealth Effect and Sector Divergence within Crypto

The long-term wealth effect and spillover effect are precisely the opposite of the short-term liquidity pressure. The listing of SpaceX and AI giants will convert illiquid equity held by early investors, founding teams, and employees into readily realizable wealth. Historically, this large-scale wealth realization after the lock-up period often produces a significant spillover effect. Some of this capital will seek new high-growth targets, and blue-chip assets, AI infrastructure tokens, and high-performance networks within the crypto market are poised to become beneficiaries.

Taking SpaceX as an example, it has over 13,000 employees. According to public information, employee stock options and Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) account for about 8–10% of the total shares. Based on a $2 trillion valuation, the market value of employee-held shares alone exceeds $160–200 billion. After the lock-up period (typically 180 days post-listing), this wealth transforms from illiquid assets into readily deployable cash. Combined with partial divestment by early institutional investors (Founders Fund, Google, Fidelity, etc.), the total anticipated wealth realization could amount to hundreds of billions of dollars. Historical precedent shows that the wealth effect from Google's 2004 IPO directly spurred an angel investing boom in the San Francisco Bay Area. After Facebook's lock-up expired in 2012, venture capital deal volume in Silicon Valley increased by over 40% year-over-year within the following twelve months.

However, not all crypto assets will benefit proportionally from this wealth spillover. Capital flows typically follow the principle of cognitive anchoring. For example, investors who have just profited from the AI sector tend to deploy new wealth into areas they are familiar with and which have a similar narrative. Therefore, crypto assets can be categorized into three groups:

• Alpha: AI infrastructure tokens directly tied to the large model computing narrative have the strongest cognitive migration path. High-performance L1 blockchains, hosting numerous AI applications and DePIN projects, will be included in portfolios for their infrastructure premium. Decentralized storage benefits from the AI data infrastructure narrative.

• Blue Chips: Major coins (BTC, ETH) may receive passive allocation from new wealth, serving as a "gateway" for capital entering the crypto market.

• Impaired or Unrelated Sectors: Tokens unrelated to the AI and hard-tech narrative may actually face pressure due to liquidity migration during the capital reallocation process.

If the above sector divergence leads to price increases, it will further strengthen the market narrative, attracting retail investors and forming a positive reflexive cycle. For instance, AI tokens have already shown an empirical high correlation with tech stocks. If OpenAI and Anthropic's listings reignite market enthusiasm for the AI computing cycle, the premium on related tokens could significantly surpass levels sustainable by fundamentals.

Synthesizing the two phases: Short-term (approximately 4-6 weeks around the subscription period), there is net outflow pressure, putting the overall crypto market under strain, though sector divergence begins to emerge. Medium-term (before the lock-up expiry, roughly 3-6 months post-IPO), a digestion period occurs as the market seeks new narrative anchors. Long-term (post lock-up expiry), the wealth spillover effect dominates, bringing structural incremental capital to AI-related crypto assets. This temporal structure provides investors with a clear strategic window: avoid short-term liquidity shocks, use pullbacks to accumulate high-conviction AI infrastructure tokens, and build positions before the lock-up expiration wave arrives for optimal results.

3. Cryptocurrency and Pre-IPO Mechanisms Reshape Retail Investment Barriers

Traditionally, pre-IPO investment opportunities in super unicorns like SpaceX and OpenAI were almost exclusively monopolized by top-tier Venture Capital (VC) firms, sovereign wealth funds, and a handful of ultra-high-net-worth individuals. Ordinary investors and retail participants could only buy shares in the secondary market at a potentially high premium after the company went public. However, in 2026, the crypto market is completely breaking down this barrier through Pre-IPO tokenization. For example, Gate's SpaceX token has a minimum investment threshold of just $0.01, whereas traditional Pre-IPO investment via VC/PE institutions typically requires a minimum subscription of at least $1 million.

3.1 The Explosion of the RWA Tokenization Track

The rise of Pre-IPO tokens is a natural outcome of the maturation of the broader RWA tokenization infrastructure. According to a Chainalysis research report from April 2026, excluding stablecoins, the on-chain RWA market size grew approximately 30% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, nearing a total size of $30 billion. Pre-IPO tokens are the fastest-growing and most narrative-driven segment within this current growth cycle.

Institutional-grade assets, such as asset-backed credit and tokenized U.S. Treasuries, are the main drivers of growth, but Pre-IPO equity tokenization is becoming one of the fastest-growing sub-sectors. The Chainalysis study also found that the time for institutional-grade RWA assets to go from their first on-chain issuance to a market cap of $1 billion is just 6.1 months, significantly faster than the 36.2 months for retail-oriented commodity assets. This indicates that large financial institutions are incorporating RWA tokenization into their asset allocation frameworks at an unprecedented pace.

For retail investors, reducing the investment threshold from a traditional $1 million to just $100, while enabling 24/7 global instant settlement, offers an advantage that the traditional financial system cannot match.

3.2 Operational Mechanism: Combining SPVs and Tokenization

Pre-IPO tokens are blockchain-based digital assets designed to provide retail investors with economic exposure to a private company's valuation before its IPO. The core operational mechanism typically includes the following steps:

1. Asset Acquisition: The platform acquires genuine equity in the target company (e.g., SpaceX) through the private secondary market or from existing shareholders.

2. Establishing an SPV: These shares are deposited into a regulated Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), which holds them on behalf of token holders.

3. On-Chain Minting: The platform mints tokens on a blockchain (typically Solana or an Ethereum L2) representing shares of the SPV on a 1:1 basis.

4. Exchange Trading: Investors can buy and sell these tokens on the exchange.

It is crucial to emphasize that these tokens do not grant holders actual ownership, voting rights, or dividend rights in the company. They are purely economic instruments tracking the company's valuation changes.

With the rapid development of the market, four main Pre-IPO participation models have evolved within the industry, each with its unique risk-return profile:

4. Evolution of the Trading Landscape: A New Battlefield for Crypto Exchanges

In the battle to capture the dividends of the "IPO super cycle," major global cryptocurrency exchanges are making it a core battleground to attract incremental traditional capital and retail users.

4.1 Industry Exploration of Pre-IPO Products and the Gate Pre-IPOs Path

Since April 2026, Pre-IPO assets have gradually moved from niche concepts towards productized exploration by trading platforms and Web3 gateways. Several models have emerged in the market: some package equity exposure in high-profile private companies like SpaceX into tradable assets via compliant investment platforms, structured notes, or SPV structures; others lower the technical barrier for ordinary users to participate in Pre-IPO asset trading through on-chain tokens or wallet aggregation gateways.

Within this trend, Gate's Pre-IPOs offers another, more trading-oriented and efficiency-focused participation path. Its underlying mechanism differs from asset-backed tokens and perpetual futures. Through a "subscription