BIT Research: Will 2022 Repeat Itself? The World Cup Could Be the End of the Bitcoin Bear Market

The current market is in the final phase of this Bitcoin bear market. The A-B-C corrective structure proposed in early 2026 is unfolding as expected: Wave A declined to the $60,000–$69,000 range, Wave B rallied to the $80,000–$90,000 range, peaking around $83,000, and the market has now entered the Wave C decline phase.

Looking at sentiment indicators, the Fear and Greed Index has fallen to historically low levels, showing high similarity with the bottom structure of the 2022 bear market. Although the market is currently closer to a "tradable bottom," cyclical indicators have yet to signal a definitive reversal. During this process, the market's focus is shifting from short-term volatility to the conditions for forming a bottom and the macro catalysts that could trigger the next bull market.

Bear Market Enters Final Stage: $50,000–$55,000 Could Be a Key Zone

From a technical structure perspective, the top formation in 2025 is highly similar to that of 2021. Both cycles experienced rapid surges, breaks below the 21-week moving average, followed by interim bounces before weakening again. Historical experience suggests that true bottoms often form with declining volume and narrowing trading ranges, rather than sharp reversals.

Currently, the Fear and Greed Index is at historical lows, the Stochastic indicator has entered deeply oversold territory, and Bitcoin's price is approaching a level two standard deviations below the weekly moving average. The area around $61,576 may provide temporary support. However, according to the cyclical analysis framework, the final market low has not yet appeared.

Based on Elliott Wave theory, since the bear market began in October 2025, Bitcoin has been following a classic A-B-C corrective structure. With the B wave rally ending after peaking at $83,000 in mid-May, the current C wave decline is underway, with a target zone potentially near $50,000. The low is expected to occur around the FIFA World Cup period (June 11 to July 19, 2026). Overall, the $50,000–$55,000 range could form the core bottoming zone of this bear market.

Peak Inflation Could Be a Key Catalyst for the Next Bull Market

On a macro level, the current market environment shows some similarities to 2022, with inflation still being the primary factor suppressing risk assets. In the previous cycle, the peak in inflation served as a key turning point for the market, and a similar macro path may emerge again in this cycle.

Currently, Bitcoin's realized price is approximately $54,591. This metric is seen as an important reference for identifying when the market enters an undervalued zone. Historical experience shows that while price may briefly dip below this level, it typically does not stay there for long. Meanwhile, cyclical indicators have not yet confirmed a bottom, and the actual low may still require 1 to 3 months for confirmation.

If the price completes its bottoming process and reclaims the 21-week moving average, with monthly cyclical indicators showing a positive reversal, it could signal the start of a new upward cycle. Until then, the market will remain in a bottom-building phase.

Overall, this bear market is nearing its end. The A-B-C corrective structure, cyclical indicators, and the macro backdrop all point in the same direction: the $50,000–$55,000 range likely represents the value zone of this bear market, while the realized price of $54,591 serves as an important long-term reference level. Although the exact timing of the low depends on inflation trends and cyclical indicator confirmations, historical experience suggests that a true bottom often doesn't look like an obvious buying opportunity. As inflationary pressures gradually ease and cyclical signals improve, the next bull market may very well begin around the $50,000–$55,000 range.

Some of the above views are from BIT on Target. Contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: Markets are risky, invest with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.