BIT Research: If It Kept Pace with Nasdaq, Bitcoin Should Be Close to $140,000
- Core Thesis: The market is undergoing a macro adjustment driven by inflation repricing. Due to its high sensitivity to interest rate paths and lack of a structural mechanism to benefit from inflation, Bitcoin has underperformed Nasdaq. Its core support — expectations of liquidity easing — is weakening.
- Key Factors:
- Rebound in Inflation Data: US CPI rose from 2.4% to 3.8%, and PPI increased from 2.9% to 6.0%, reversing market expectations for the 2026 rate cut path.
- Escalating Energy Shock: The situation in Iran has driven oil prices up by approximately 40% since late February 2026, intensifying inflation concerns.
- Divergence Between Bitcoin and Tech Stocks: The divergence has widened since October 2025, with the gap between theoretical pricing (based on Nasdaq trends) and the current price reaching roughly $140,000.
- Differences in Asset Characteristics: Bitcoin, as a long-duration asset, is sensitive to interest rates, but unlike stocks, it does not directly benefit from inflation through nominal income or debt dilution.
- Future Inflation Path: The BIT model predicts CPI could rise to 6.0%, and the increased energy demand from AI infrastructure expansion may prolong the period of high inflation.
- Expected Decline in Oil Prices: The market expects oil prices to gradually drop from $101 to $89 by September 2026 and $73 by January 2028, though short-term supply bottlenecks persist.
The current market is in a phase of macro adjustment dominated by the repricing of inflation. If Bitcoin were to consistently track the Nasdaq, its current price should theoretically be close to $140,000. However, since October 2025, the divergence between the two has started to widen significantly. The core reason behind this is the resurgence of inflation in the United States, which has begun to reverse market expectations regarding the path of interest rate cuts.
The latest data shows that the US CPI has rebounded from 2.4% to 3.8%, while the PPI has risen from 2.9% to 6.0%. Concurrently, interest rate markets are gradually pricing out some expectations for rate cuts in 2026. For Bitcoin, the liquidity easing expectations that previously supported its rally are beginning to weaken. At the same time, escalating tensions in Iran have pushed oil prices up by approximately 40% since late February 2026, with rising energy costs further strengthening market concerns about inflation.
Based on current pricing, the market still tends to view this round of inflation as a temporary pressure disturbance. However, as the correlation between energy, interest rates, and risk appetite strengthens, the market is also starting to reassess the risk that the high-interest-rate environment could persist for longer. In this process, Bitcoin's performance has begun to notably lag behind tech stocks, which can benefit from nominal inflation.
Inflation Repricing: Why Bitcoin Struggles to Benefit from a High-Inflation Environment
Many investors often equate "monetary expansion" with "inflation," but the two actually correspond to entirely different market phases. Over the past few years, a key driver of Bitcoin's rise was essentially loose liquidity and expectations of rate cuts, rather than inflation itself. In December 2022, the BIT model was the first to indicate a clear easing of price pressures and predicted that central bank policies would subsequently pivot towards signaling rate cuts. This became an important starting point for the rally in tech stocks and Bitcoin from 2023 to 2025.
The issue, however, is that when inflation truly starts to re-emerge, the market logic shifts. Even without actual rate hikes materializing, mere expectations that "rates will stay higher for longer" are sufficient to drive a repricing of Bitcoin. As a typical long-duration asset, Bitcoin is highly sensitive to the interest rate path. Once expectations for rate cuts are withdrawn, its valuation tends to come under pressure.
Furthermore, unlike stocks, Bitcoin does not derive structural benefits from a certain level of inflation. Stocks can benefit not only from the rise in nominal corporate revenues but also potentially reduce the real burden of their debt to some extent. Bitcoin, however, has no debt to be diluted by inflation, nor does it possess cash flows that can expand with it. Therefore, it finds it difficult to benefit directly from this resurgence of inflation. This also explains the clear divergence recently observed between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin.
From Energy Shock to Interest Rate Constraints: The Market Begins to Reassess the Liquidity Path
The real issue the market is currently focusing on is no longer just "whether inflation is rising," but whether high inflation will force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for a longer period. The BIT model predicts that US CPI could even rise further to 6.0% in the future. If this scenario materializes, Bitcoin could face periodic pullbacks around each release of CPI and PPI data.
Meanwhile, although the crude oil futures curve suggests that oil prices will eventually decline gradually, it will be difficult for them to return to pre-conflict levels of around $63 in the short term. The market has already priced in roughly a 15% long-term premium into oil prices, reflecting real supply bottlenecks. Starting from the current price of about $101, the market expects oil prices to fall to $89 by September 2026, $80 by January 2027, and further down to $73 by January 2028.
Beyond geopolitical and energy factors, the expansion of AI infrastructure may also be changing the inflation trajectory the market was previously accustomed to. Data center construction, electricity demand, and infrastructure capital expenditure are continuously driving up energy pressures. This suggests that inflation could stay above target levels for longer than the market previously anticipated. In this environment, tech stocks can benefit from order growth and improved earnings expectations, while Bitcoin is more susceptible to the drag of a high-interest-rate environment.
Overall, the core of this market shift is not the destruction of Bitcoin's long-term thesis, but rather the market's reassessment of the path for interest rates and liquidity following the resurgence of inflation. In the short term, the high-inflation environment is likely to continue suppressing Bitcoin's performance, causing it to periodically underperform the Nasdaq. However, this does not signal a shift to a bearish outlook; more accurately, it merely slows down Bitcoin's upward momentum. As the market eventually begins to price in expectations of liquidity easing again, Bitcoin could still regain support.
The above contains some viewpoints from BIT on Target. Contact us to receive the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be undertaken with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of individual circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
