The biggest IPO in history ignites a fierce bull-bear debate: Is SpaceX worth $1.77 trillion?

Original Author: Biteye

Currently, the initial IPO pricing for SpaceX is tentatively set at $135 per share, with plans to raise approximately $75 billion, corresponding to a fully diluted valuation of about $1.77 trillion. This has essentially secured its position as the largest IPO in capital market history.

If this valuation materializes, Musk's net worth would also surge by over $220 billion, propelling him toward becoming the world's first trillionaire.

However, great power comes with great responsibility. The SpaceX IPO has garnered immense attention, not just because it could be the largest IPO ever, but also because the capital market is already divided over its valuation.

Is SpaceX really worth $1.77 trillion? Can Musk sleep soundly with an extra $220 billion in his pocket?

🌟 Bullish: Underwriters Spin a Long-Term Story with Starlink + Rocket Launches + AI

The bullish camp believes that betting on SpaceX is not just about investing in a rocket company, but about securing an early position in the future gateway to space infrastructure.

A $1.77 trillion valuation may seem high, but if Starlink, low-cost launches, and AI business continue to deliver results, the $135 price tag has a long-term narrative to support it.

Goldman Sachs @GoldmanSachs

X Followers: 1.132M | XHunt Rank: 12,015 | Global top-tier investment bank, one of the core underwriters for the SpaceX IPO.

Core View: SpaceX's valuation should not be understood through the lens of a traditional aerospace company; instead, Starlink and future AI businesses must be integrated into a long-term growth model.

Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX's 2028 revenue to be around $160 billion, exceeding $470 billion by 2030.

Among these, the AI division is considered the most aggressive component. Goldman Sachs estimates SpaceX's AI-related revenue could reach approximately $322 billion by 2030.

Morgan Stanley @MorganStanley

X Followers: 742K | XHunt Rank: 32,049 | Global top-tier investment bank, one of the core underwriters for the SpaceX IPO.

Core View: SpaceX's long-term value derives from the compounded growth of "Space + AI," with a future revenue ceiling far higher than traditional aerospace companies.

Morgan Stanley also forecasts SpaceX's 2028 revenue to be around $160 billion.

More aggressive is the long-term forecast: by 2040, Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX's revenue could reach $3.4 trillion, with adjusted EBITDA exceeding $2.7 trillion.

If you are buying into the gateway of future space infrastructure over the next decade or more, $135 might be undervalued, but it requires significant time to materialize.

Sacra

An independent research firm focused on unlisted tech companies, specializing in deep-dive company analysis and valuation breakdowns.

Core View: Bullish on the business long-term, but $135 is not a low price. It's more like buying a call option on SpaceX's transformation from an aerospace company into a space infrastructure platform.

Sacra estimates SpaceX's 2025 revenue to be around $18.7 billion, with Starlink contributing $11.4 billion, making it the company's most important profit center.

It believes SpaceX's core advantage lies in vertical integration: building its own rockets, launching them, deploying its own satellites, and controlling its own terminals and ground network. This creates a cost advantage that competitors will find difficult to replicate.

Looking solely at the current Starlink and rocket launch businesses, $135 is not cheap. The price becomes more palatable if you believe SpaceX can evolve from an aerospace company into a comprehensive platform covering satellite internet, low-cost launches, and broader space infrastructure.

ARK Invest @ARKInvest

X Followers: 816K | XHunt Rank: 1,637 | Cathie Wood's innovation-focused tech investment firm, with a long-term focus on disruptive technology assets.

Core View: While SpaceX's $1.77 trillion valuation is very high, it isn't entirely unsupported when considering the long-term potential by 2030.

ARK Invest's open-source SpaceX valuation model suggests an expected enterprise value of around $2.5 trillion for SpaceX by 2030. According to their model, the bull case is approximately $3.1 trillion, and the bear case is around $1.7 trillion.

ARK's core logic is that SpaceX's value stems not just from rocket launches, but from Starlink's global satellite internet network, low-cost launch capabilities, and future space infrastructure businesses.

Based on ARK's forecast, the IPO offering price of $135 still has some upside potential.

🌟 Bearish: Independent Institutions Believe IPO Valuation is Seriously Overstretched

The bearish camp does not deny that SpaceX is the world's most scarce commercial aerospace asset, nor does it deny Starlink's long-term value.

However, they believe the $1.77 trillion IPO valuation has already priced in too much future growth prematurely, especially with the AI business still facing significant uncertainty.

Morningstar @MorningstarInc

X Followers: 238K | XHunt Rank: 98,209 | Globally renowned independent investment research firm, commonly using fundamental analysis and DCF models for company valuation.

Core View: SpaceX is a great company, but the IPO valuation appears significantly overpriced.

Morningstar's DCF model yields a fair value for SpaceX of approximately $780 billion, only about 45% of the IPO target valuation of $1.77 trillion.

In Morningstar's sum-of-the-parts valuation, SpaceX's core launch business plus Starlink is valued at around $611 billion, while the probability-weighted value of xAI/AI-related businesses is approximately $170 billion.

Morningstar also highlights two risks: Musk is a key person for SpaceX, and there's a noticeable 'Musk premium' in the valuation. Post-IPO, as lock-up periods expire, early shareholders and employees could create selling pressure.

Morningstar believes the $135 price is significantly expensive, not suitable for a quick IPO flip, and there might be better entry points after the IPO.

PitchBook @PitchBook

X Followers: 48K | XHunt Rank: 49,174 | Global data platform for private equity, venture capital, and unlisted companies, covering extensive valuation and funding information on private firms.

Core View: A valuation around $1.5 trillion is acceptable, $1.75 trillion is expensive, but not entirely irrational.

Using a Sum-of-the-Parts model, PitchBook estimates SpaceX's fair value range is approximately between $1.1 trillion and $1.7 trillion, primarily focusing on launch and Starlink businesses, not wholly dependent on the xAI narrative.

The $135 price is already near or slightly above the upper end of PitchBook's valuation range. It's not cheap, but given the long-term potential of Starship and Starlink, it's not completely outlandish either.

New Constructs @NewConstructs

X Followers: 5,675 | XHunt Rank: - | Independent stock research firm focused on financial quality, valuation risk, and reverse DCF analysis.

Core View: SpaceX is not worth participating in at a $1.75 trillion valuation; they advise investors to avoid the IPO.

New Constructs gives SpaceX an Unattractive rating. They argue that the implied future growth and profit requirements for a $1.75 trillion valuation are excessively high. To justify this price, SpaceX would need to become one of the highest revenue and profit-generating companies in the U.S. stock market simultaneously.

Concerns include insufficient internal accounting controls at SpaceX, virtually no voting rights for public investors, a significant portion of IPO proceeds potentially used for debt repayment, potentially misleading non-GAAP metrics, and related-party transaction risks.

To support a $1.75 trillion valuation, SpaceX might need revenue to reach $1.1 trillion by 2035, implying roughly 50% average annual growth over the next decade. Fortune notes that this growth rate has few historical precedents.

New Constructs' judgment is the most direct: at this price, the risk-reward is unfavorable, and they advise against participating in the IPO.

Trefis @Trefis

X Followers: 2,661 | XHunt Rank: - | Independent U.S. stock valuation platform, deriving target prices by breaking down business models.

Core View: SpaceX is a very rare company, but the $135 offering price is clearly expensive.

Trefis acknowledges SpaceX's long-term advantages in commercial aerospace, Starlink satellite internet, and low-cost launches, but believes these advantages do not mean investors should ignore the price.

Trefis sets a target price for SpaceX of about $79 per share, significantly below the $135 IPO price.

🌟 Final Thoughts

Both the bullish and bearish camps largely acknowledge that SpaceX is one of the world's most scarce commercial aerospace companies.

The real point of contention remains the $135 price: does it offer a margin of safety?

📈 The bullish camp believes that buying SpaceX means buying into the long-term story of Starlink, low-cost launches, AI, and future space infrastructure.

📉 The bearish camp believes that $135 has already priced in all future expectations upfront.

Currently, the IPO subscription multiple for $SPCX has reached 4 times, indicating that despite valuation controversy, capital enthusiasm for SpaceX remains very high.

🙋 So here is the question: Will you participate in the $SPCX IPO subscription? Do you think Musk will rest easy with his $220 billion windfall, or will it keep him up at night?