每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks (0606-0612)
- Core Insights: This edition compiles multi-dimensional dynamics across the macroeconomic landscape, investment markets, and the crypto industry, focusing on the potential for the AI sector to become China's next leading industry, the absence of extreme bubble levels in the US stock bull market, and Bitcoin's vulnerability amid widespread losses among short-term holders.
- Key Elements:
- Ray Dalio believes China is replicating a "tribute system" pattern, emphasizing AI-driven development, with robotics poised to become the next dominant industry akin to electric vehicles.
- J.P. Morgan's mid-year outlook suggests the AI narrative has not peaked, global top three risks are overpriced, recommending continued bets on AI and US stocks while increasing allocation to real assets as an inflation hedge.
- Goldman Sachs' assessment shows current market euphoria has reached the 86th historical percentile, nearing but not yet hitting the levels of the 2000 dot-com bubble or the 2021 bull market peak.
- The global semiconductor sector suffered a heavy blow last week, but Jensen Huang's visit to South Korea reinforced AI supply chain cooperation, prompting a market re-evaluation of whether this decline marks an AI cycle top or an unwinding of crowded trades.
- Over 95% of Bitcoin's short-term holders are in a loss position, with the proportion of profitable coins significantly below the four-year average, indicating fragile market fundamentals; institutional demand has cooled, and Bitcoin experienced massive deleveraging after breaking below key support levels.
- SpaceX has become the biggest IPO focus ever, with multiple platforms launching pre-IPO contract products. However, prices vary widely and these are not actual stocks, essentially reflecting a betting market on the final valuation expectations.
- Investor "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity has gained a massive following due to his precise "bottleneck point investment method" and ultra-high returns. However, his anonymity and influence have sparked controversy, potentially making him a negative focal point when the market turns.
The information flow is too fast, making it easy for in-depth analysis articles to be buried by hot topics. This "Weekly Editor's Pick" column sifts through the vast sea of news to find these valuable pieces, helping you filter out the noise, retain insights, and spark inspiration.
Macro Landscape
Ray Dalio: China-led "Tribute System" Re-emerges, AI Industry Will Develop Like the EV Industry
There are risks associated with currency value. The credibility of the United States as a global power willing to fight for its interests is declining. Nations acknowledge and respect China's formidable strength, but this system is not oppressive or controlling.
China focuses more on "using AI to drive development across various sectors" and is committed to finding the next area where it can achieve dominance. The robotics technology sector can essentially be seen as China's next-generation electric vehicle industry.
J.P. Morgan Mid-Year Outlook: AI Narrative Has Not Peaked, Reduce Cash, Increase Real Assets
J.P. Morgan believes that the three main global risks (fragmentation, inflation, and AI's disruptive nature) are being over-pessimistically priced by the market, and the current volatility presents a window for entry.
The overall assessment is: continue betting on the AI super-cycle and US stocks, hedge against inflation using real assets and alternative strategies, reduce cash holdings, and pay attention to emerging markets.
How Far is the Current US Stock Bull Market from Historical Bubble Peaks?
The latest assessment from Goldman Sachs' chief US equity strategist shows that current market euphoria has risen to the 86th percentile historically, approaching but not yet reaching the extreme levels seen during the 2000 dot-com bubble and the 2021 bull market peak.
For the market, this assessment implies the current bull run still has room, but risks are accumulating.
Snider explicitly stated, "We are not there yet," while warning that the market doesn't need to wait for extreme investor euphoria before a decline occurs, and historical patterns may not repeat in this cycle.
Last Friday, the global semiconductor sector suffered a heavy blow, triggering a trading halt in the Korean market on Monday, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix leading the decline.
However, over the weekend following the crash, Jensen Huang made a high-profile visit to Korea and strengthened cooperation with the Korean AI supply chain. The market is now reassessing whether this marks the peak of the AI cycle or merely a washout of overcrowded trades.
Related tickers: 000660.KS (Korea), 005930.KS (Korea), NVDA (US), MU (US), AVGO (US), EWY (Korea ETF), SOXX (US ETF).
Korea has become one of the most sensitive markets for global AI trading, with its direction largely determined by overseas variables.
Investment & Entrepreneurship
From IPO subscription campaigns launched by CEXs to Pre-IPO equity tokens and various pre-market contract products, different types of investors are vying for a ticket to SpaceX through different methods.
The increasingly diverse participation channels are offering more people a chance to join this capital feast early on.
For beginners, choosing to wait until SpaceX officially lists before deciding whether to participate is also a reasonable option.
Why is the Price Spread for SpaceX Pre-Market Contracts So Large Across Different Exchanges?
Whether it's Binance, OKX, Bitget, or Hyperliquid, the currently listed SPCX is not SpaceX's actual stock, but a derivative designed around the future IPO price.
These products will ultimately be settled based on SpaceX's post-IPO market cap and share data. Therefore, their price essentially reflects the market's expectations for SpaceX's final valuation. Since SpaceX is not yet listed, these expected prices lack a definitive anchor. This uncertainty is the source of the current price arbitrage game in the market.
Although the best arbitrage window may have passed, for ordinary investors, this price game centered around SPCX provides an excellent sample for observing the operational logic of the pre-market.
SpaceX IPO Day One Guide: Don't Trade It Like a Regular Hot Stock
SpaceX's IPO day one is for traders; long-term judgment requires waiting for the supply test. For traders, the first day might be the "Super Bowl" of order flow trading; for investors, the first day's price movements should not be over-interpreted.
In this sense, the core question of the SpaceX IPO is no longer just whether to buy on the first day, but whether participants can first determine which game they are entering: day one focuses on order flow, long-term focuses on supply absorption capacity. Confusing the two is precisely why most retail investors lose money.
BTC Sideways ≠ Industry Decline, Ansem: Bullish on These Three Underestimated Crypto Tailwinds
The problem Bitcoin faces now is the "Ponzi-ization" tendency brought by Saylor's playbook, which is temporary. Until this issue is resolved, BTC won't see a clear trending upward move.
Furthermore, concerns about quantum computing are real.
These two factors, combined with institutional exit liquidity, are why old BTC players are de-risking towards excess liquidity.
With AI models improving exponentially over the next few years, there are three underestimated crypto tailwinds: 1) Open-source AI will become more competitive with closed-source AI; 2) Small teams building successful startups using software will become easier; 3) Stablecoins and blockchains are superior infrastructure for AI agents to conduct transactions.
Leverage Washout, Absent Buyers: Bitcoin Still Trapped in Waiting for the "Final Drop"
Over 95% of short-term holders are in a losing position. The proportion of profitable supply held by short-term holders has only recovered slightly to 3.3%, significantly lower than the four-year average of 55%. Market fundamentals are fragile and highly susceptible to external shocks.
Demand from US institutions has cooled notably, the pace of Bitcoin accumulation by corporate treasuries has slowed dramatically, and two major market support forces are exiting. After Bitcoin broke below a key support level, the market experienced a large-scale deleveraging, with many leveraged long positions being liquidated, clearing out excessive speculative bets.
Market trading is primarily defensive, with the largest negative gamma exposure concentrated around the $65,000 level, which is not far from the current spot price.
Unveiling 'White-Haired Stock God' Serenity: Spiritual Comfort for Anxious Retail Investors
Serenity's investment strategy involves using the "Chokepoint Investment Method" to screen for undervalued small-cap monopolies within the AI supply chain. Since over 16 stocks he has promoted have achieved returns exceeding 100% this year, and his personal year-to-date return reportedly exceeds 3612%, combined with his background as a former AI research scientist and his rigorous analysis of the AI industry and chosen companies, Serenity has amassed a large base of loyal retail fans in the US, Europe, Japan, and Korea. His X account subscriber count surpasses that of Elon Musk, ranking first on the platform.
Serenity's anonymous identity, opaque investment returns, and perceived excessive desire for influence are fueling market controversy. Interestingly, however, all those who question him also find themselves constantly refreshing his page.
A bull market amplifies both returns and beliefs. When more and more people start making money, we inevitably look for someone who can "scientifically explain the bubble." Serenity might just be the outward projection of the sentiment in this AI bull market – mysterious, professional, successful, fitting the public's full imagination of a "stock god."
But right next to the altar is the guillotine. Because when the market turns, it will look for someone to blame for the losses, and Serenity might be the most suitable candidate then.
Also recommended: "Is Apple AI Any Good? The Most Worth-Watching US Stock Mapping Chain from WWDC26", "From Calling $150 to Liquidating HYPE in Just Three Days, How Much Credibility Does Arthur Hayes Have Left?", "a16z Partner: Standing in the Flow of Capital is the True Moat".
Web3 & AI
When LPs Use 'Doubao' to Teach Me Investing: A Private Equity GP's Career Change Story
Raising funds for small private equity funds is already difficult. Add in the proliferation of AI, and many LPs would rather let AI-assisted stock trading apps guide them than entrust their capital to GPs. As AI tools become ubiquitous, the information processing and research capabilities that once heavily relied on professional institutions are being rapidly democratized.
Apart from the final capital allocation and trade execution steps, a significant portion of the traditional GP's workflow is beginning to be replaced by AI at a lower cost and higher efficiency.
One interviewed GP believes: AI is always neutral and accessible to everyone; it is a lever. GPs can use AI to refine their own knowledge systems and investment strategies, creating more value for LPs. However, AI also increases friction between GPs and LPs.
Prediction Markets
On June 10th, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a proposed rule aimed at adjusting the review process for event contracts. The CFTC is attempting to establish a framework to evaluate, contract by contract, which events can be financialized and which should be kept out of the market. Sports-related prediction events are expected to be preserved with clearer boundaries. The real target of this regulatory effort is the risk of insider trading and market manipulation.
Also recommended: "World Cup Prediction Battle Begins: How Are Major Exchanges Competing for This Wave of Event Traffic?".
CeFi & DeFi
Saylor Bought 1,550 BTC, But It Might Be Strategy's Worst Trade Recently
This trade shows that Strategy chose to sacrifice MSTR's core metric – Bitcoin holdings per share – for the development of STRC. This is essentially a gamble.
If sacrificing MSTR leads to a recovery in market sentiment, stabilization of STRC's price, and a return of the adjusted net asset value to a reasonable range, then the company can continue to raise funds through timely secondary offerings of MSTR and STRC stock, keeping the whole system running smoothly.
However, if market sentiment fails to improve, the situation could deteriorate rapidly. Strategy might then be forced to continue sacrificing MSTR's interests to survive. The worst-case scenario would follow, forcing the company to either delay STRC dividend payments or gradually decline amid persistent internal strife.
If Hyperliquid is the New Nasdaq, Which Projects are Acting as Brokerages?
If the hypothesis that Hyperliquid becomes the next-generation Nasdaq holds, then applications built on Hyperliquid that directly interface with users and optimize the trading experience would no longer be simple front-ends. Instead, their role would be more akin to "brokerages" in the traditional financial system.
Analogous to the traditional stock market, retail investors don't trade directly on the Nasdaq or NYSE. The platforms that build relationships with users are often brokerages like Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, or Charles Schwab. The exchange provides the underlying market, liquidity, and matching engine; the brokerage handles the user interface, product design, and experience optimization.
Currently, the most direct revenue source for these "brokerage" projects remains fee-splitting and appreciation expectations for HYPE.
Representative projects include: Trade.xyz, which brings US stocks, commodities, and indices onto Hyperliquid; Dreamcash, capturing mobile traffic; Ventuals, a pioneer in the Pre-IPO market; Based, a future "super app"; and Minara AI, which is preparing for a future where "Agents become users".
The open combinability and increasingly strong network effects form Hyperliquid's strongest moat.
Airdrop Opportunities & Interaction Guides
Meme
Binance 'Life' Reaches New Highs, But the Meme Frenzy is a Thing of the Past
Bitcoin
BIP-110 Controversy Intensifies: Bitcoin May Face Its Most Divisive Hard Fork in Years
Bitcoin's block height is approaching 961,632, where the BIP-110 proposal could restrict non-financial data within transactions.
Supporters argue the adjustment will allow Bitcoin to return to its core settlement function, alleviating network strain caused by inscriptions and other data-heavy applications. Critics warn that the proposal's low miner voting threshold and accompanying enforcement mechanism could easily lead to a chain split, forcing major exchanges and node operators to take defensive measures.
