Data Review: How Much Did Prediction Markets Gain from a World Cup?

Original by Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

The 2026 World Cup has concluded, and the prediction markets now face a stage-by-stage evaluation.

Over the past six weeks, many users participated in trading match outcomes, advancement scenarios, and championship winners through prediction markets, adding another layer of real-time interaction to the viewing experience. Now that the tournament is over, Odaily will review the performance of leading prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket, and predict.fun before, during, and after the World Cup from three dimensions: trading volume, fee revenue, and TVL.

World Cup Pushes Prediction Market Volume to New Highs, but Momentum Fails to Sustain

Kalshi Maintains Lead, Polymarket Narrows Gap, predict.fun Breaks Out Thanks to World Cup

In terms of total platform trading volume during the World Cup period, Kalshi still held a clear lead. During the same period, Kalshi's total trading volume reached $543.38 billion, while Polymarket stood at $209.88 billion, making Kalshi about 2.6 times larger. However, looking only at World Cup-related events, the gap narrowed significantly. Kalshi's related trading volume was $135.91 billion, and Polymarket reached $103.56 billion, with Kalshi only about 1.3 times Polymarket's volume.(Note: The trading volume discussed in this article refers to notional volume.)

Previously, Polymarket's representative markets were more concentrated on the US election, cryptocurrencies, and geopolitical events. The World Cup elevated the importance of sports markets on the platform, moving them from a supplementary category to a core trading segment. Kalshi's advantage lies in its more diversified trading structure, where besides the World Cup, other sports events, political, and macroeconomic markets continue to contribute volume, providing more scenarios to absorb activity after the tournament ends.

predict.fun's total platform trading volume during the World Cup reached $1.092 billion, with World Cup-related markets contributing $886 million. Although its overall scale still lags significantly behind Kalshi and Polymarket, for a platform that has been online for just over six months, generating nearly $900 million in trading volume from this World Cup has already established predict.fun as one of the most prominent new platforms to benefit from this event.

Daily Average Trading Volume Changes on Three Prediction Market Platforms Before, During, and After the World Cup

Kalshi saw the most significant increase in trading volume during the World Cup. Its average daily notional volume in May was $580 million, which rose to $1.393 billion during the tournament, an increase of about 140%. On July 22, trading volume dropped back to $494.4 million, already below the May daily average.

Polymarket's change was similar to Kalshi. Its average daily notional volume in May was $228 million, rising to $538 million during the World Cup, an increase of about 136%. On July 22, volume fell to $180.9 million, also lower than pre-tournament levels.

predict.fun had a lower base, but the boost from the World Cup was still clear. Its average daily notional volume in May was $14.7 million, rising to $28 million during the tournament, nearly doubling. On July 22, volume was $13.2 million, essentially returning to pre-tournament levels.

Comparing just the one-day post-World Cup trading volumes, the growth from the World Cup appears more like a concentrated release of event-driven traffic, rather than a lasting elevation of the platforms' daily trading volumes. Whether they can rebound depends on whether other sports events and non-sports markets can absorb the trading demand left after the World Cup ends.

How Much Fee Revenue Did the World Cup Generate for the Three Prediction Market Platforms?

Kalshi's Fee Revenue Continuously Rose with the Tournament's Progress, Exceeding $100 Million in a Single Week in Week Four

Kalshi's fee revenue curve showed a strong overall upward trend. Revenue for the opening phase (four days) was $41.4 million, rising to $64.5 million in the first week, further increasing to $82.7 million in the second week, reaching $91.3 million in the third week, and hitting a new high in the fourth week with a single-week revenue of $102.3 million, the highest point during the entire World Cup. It slightly declined to $91 million in the final week. During the entire World Cup period, Kalshi's cumulative fee revenue reached $473.2 million.

The boost from the World Cup for Kalshi wasn't just about generating initial attention; more importantly, it sustained trading activity deep into the tournament's second half. The single-week revenue exceeding $100 million means that Kalshi not only captured the World Cup dividend in terms of trading volume but also effectively converted this traffic into revenue on the monetization front.

Polymarket's Fee Revenue Was More Stable, but Did Not See an Acceleration in the Second Half Like Kalshi

Polymarket's fee revenue trend was noticeably flatter. Revenue for the opening phase (four days) was $6.9 million, rising to $19.7 million in the first week. Subsequently, the second, third, fourth, and final weeks saw revenues of $21.3 million, $21.4 million, $20.7 million, and $21.4 million, respectively. During the entire World Cup period, Polymarket's cumulative fee revenue reached $111.4 million.

Starting from the first week, Polymarket's weekly fee revenue stabilized around $20 million. While the World Cup did lift Polymarket's fee revenue to a higher level, from the second week onward, the platform did not amplify further as the tournament progressed like Kalshi did, but instead operated within a relatively stable range.

predict.fun's Fee Revenue Gradually Increased with the Tournament, Accumulating $3.48 Million over Six Settlement Weeks

predict.fun's fee revenue is calculated based on the platform's settlement weeks, which switch cycles every Tuesday at 10 PM. Therefore, it does not perfectly align with the World Cup's natural schedule from June 11 to July 19. The first settlement week was June 9 to June 16, including two days of pre-tournament data; the last settlement week was July 14 to July 21, also including two days of post-tournament data.

Looking at the revenue trend, predict.fun's fee revenue in the first settlement week was $326,200, followed by three consecutive weeks of growth, peaking at $755,300 during the period from June 30 to July 7, the highest single-week value within the World Cup cycle. The following two weeks recorded $677,800 and $730,200, respectively. While not breaking the record, these figures were still significantly higher than at the start of the tournament. The cumulative fee revenue over the six settlement weeks during the World Cup reached $3.4813 million.

In the settlement week before the World Cup, June 2 to June 9, predict.fun's fee revenue was only $159,400. After entering the World Cup cycle, the first week's revenue rose to $326,200, an increase of about 105%, and most subsequent settlement weeks saw revenues climb above $500,000. Even though the first and last cycles partially included pre- and post-tournament data, the boost from the World Cup on predict.fun's fee revenue was still significant.

After the World Cup Ended, Fee Revenue Generally Declined Across the Three Platforms, with Kalshi Experiencing the Smallest Drop

Kalshi's average daily fee revenue during the World Cup was $12.13 million. On July 22, it fell to $11 million, a decline of 9.3%. Among the three platforms, Kalshi had the smallest post-tournament decline, with fee revenue remaining close to its World Cup daily average level despite the drop from the peak during the event.

Polymarket's decline was more pronounced. Its average daily fee revenue during the World Cup was $2.86 million. On July 22, it fell to $1.7 million, a drop of 40.5%. The incremental revenue the World Cup brought to Polymarket was relatively concentrated, and it quickly dissipated as the event ended.

predict.fun's average daily fee revenue during the World Cup was approximately $83,000. On July 22, it fell to $53,000, a decline of 36.1%, a similar magnitude to Polymarket's. Although the calculation method differs slightly from the first two, the post-tournament trend is still clear: the World Cup significantly boosted predict.fun's fee revenue, which also declined rapidly after the event ended.

The World Cup Did Not Boost Polymarket's TVL, While predict.fun Saw Inflows in the Second Half of the Tournament

Polymarket's TVL did not rise in tandem with trading volume during the World Cup. In early May, the platform's TVL was around $410 million, and it subsequently remained mostly within the $440 million to $480 million range. After the World Cup began, TVL continued to fluctuate around this level. Although it briefly spiked in late June and early July, no sustained upward trend formed.

After mid-July, TVL began to decline noticeably, falling to around $400 million by the end of the World Cup, and has since further decreased to approximately $340 million. While trading volume expanded significantly during the tournament, the capital locked on the platform actually decreased post-event, indicating that the World Cup primarily generated high-frequency trading demand without concurrently translating into long-term capital retention.

predict.fun's trend was more stage-specific. In early May, its TVL was around $20 million, briefly dropping to around $10 million in mid-May, before stabilizing around $15 million until mid-June. At the start of the World Cup, TVL did not rise immediately. It only began to recover quickly in early July, climbing to the $20 million to $25 million range in the second half of the tournament, reaching a cyclical peak around the end of the World Cup.

After the event, TVL gradually declined and currently sits around $17 million, still higher than the late June low. Compared with Polymarket, predict.fun's capital changes were more closely tied to the World Cup's progress, with more obvious capital inflows appearing, particularly during the knockout stage.

(Note: As Kalshi's TVL data is not available on-chain, this section only discusses Polymarket and predict.fun.)

Summary

The World Cup did bring substantial trading volume and fee revenue to prediction markets, but the post-tournament data also indicates that this growth did not naturally sustain itself. The average daily trading volume and fee revenue of all three platforms declined after the event, and Polymarket's TVL continued to fall. Mega-events can concentrate and amplify trading demand in the short term, but they may not directly elevate a platform's long-term activity levels.

However, the World Cup dividend isn't solely reflected in short-term data. It at least validated that sports events can consistently provide high-frequency, short-cycle trading scenarios for prediction markets, and allowed many users to form repeated trading habits through consecutive matches.

The World Cup has ended, but the competition surrounding user retention, market supply, and regular trading has only just begun.