Is China’s lithography machine entering its DeepSeek era? Is the U.S. stock market about to face selling pressure again?

Last night, the US semiconductor sector once again faced a severe sell-off.

SanDisk closed down 11%, SK Hynix fell over 7%, with its stock price officially breaking below the IPO issue price of $149. Even the typically stable leader, Nvidia, dropped by 5%.

This morning, the panic spread across the Pacific — South Korea's stock market triggered a circuit breaker again. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both plummeted on the Korean exchange, dragging the KOSPI index sharply downward.

All of this traces back to a single variable: the rise of China's related chip industry is fundamentally shaking the pricing logic of the global memory market.

1. CXMT Tops the A-Share Market, Domestic DUV Equipment Nears Delivery

Yesterday, CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) was officially listed on the A-share market.

On its debut day, its market capitalization directly topped the A-share rankings — a milestone sufficient to shake the global semiconductor industry. It's important to note that, for a considerable period prior, the high-end memory chip market (HBM, DRAM, NAND) was almost firmly monopolized by Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung. CXMT's rise to the top signifies that this once "ironclad" structure is beginning to crack.

A more critical piece of news followed: according to industry sources, the first batch of domestic DUV lithography equipment is planned for delivery to domestic chip manufacturers including SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and CXMT. Among these, CXMT, as a representative of China's DRAM industry, is expected to become a key application scenario for advanced domestic semiconductor equipment.

It needs to be clarified that this does not mean China has achieved a technological breakthrough in EUV or HBM. The delivery of domestic DUV equipment still has a long way to go before truly altering the global lithography machine landscape. However, the market's pricing logic has never been equivalent to reality — the market trades on "expectations," not the "current state."

2. The "Scarcity Premium" is Being Dismantled

The combination of CXMT's listing and the delivery of domestic equipment impacts the market not on a technological level, but on a valuation level.

In the past, the ability of Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung to enjoy ultra-high valuation premiums largely depended on a core narrative: the global supply of high-end memory chips was controlled by a very small number of manufacturers, and this scarcity granted them immense pricing power. When AI demand surged, they could raise prices on the spot; when capacity was tight, they could pick and choose their clients.

But the rise of CXMT is dismantling this narrative.

Once CXMT secures stable domestic expansion tools, DRAM supply will inevitably increase. The impact on Samsung and Hynix won't be just next quarter's profit figures; it will be the long-term premium supporting their market capitalization — the combination of "scarcity and pricing power."

When the market realizes that "monopoly positions are not eternal," valuation restructuring happens rapidly.

3. The Fate of US Chip Stocks Now Depends on Others

The stock price trend of SK Hynix is showing an interesting characteristic: US stocks decline first, followed by Korean stocks.

This indicates that global capital is re-evaluating the long-term logic of the memory industry in advance through the US stock market, which offers the best liquidity pricing window. After SK Hynix's US shares fell below the $149 issue price, arbitrage pressure and sentiment contagion quickly spread to the domestic Korean market. Coupled with the high weighting of Samsung and Hynix in the KOSPI index, deleveraging at the individual stock level was amplified into an index-level panic.

This time, the fate of US semiconductor stocks is no longer solely in their own hands.

Going forward, the market won't just focus on whether SK Hynix's earnings report on July 29th can sustain HBM4 orders and cash flow, but also on a deeper variable: whether the domestic DUV equipment can pass market validation, enabling CXMT to substantially expand production, thereby intensifying global memory price competition.

4. Signal for Sector Rotation: Why Did Apple and Google Buck the Trend?

Amid the chaos in chip stocks, a contrasting picture emerged in the US market last night.

The stock prices of Apple and Google not only did not fall but actually rebounded slightly. Against the backdrop of a broad Nasdaq decline, the resilience of these two giants appeared particularly stark.

The reason behind this might be their strategy regarding AI capital expenditure, which is quite different from those manufacturers frantically building their own infrastructure.

Apple and Google tend to prefer leasing computing power rather than building massive data centers in-house. Although Google's capital expenditure is also high, a significant portion is invested in its self-developed TPU chips (Frozen v2), which constitutes "differentiated investment" rather than "follow-the-leader arms race." Apple, on the other hand, has always remained extremely cautious with AI spending, largely staying out of the large model training race, focusing instead on on-device AI and device integration.

When the market begins to question the returns of "unrestrained cash burning," players who spend the least, or spend the smartest, become safe havens. This style shift could be an important clue for capital reallocation in the coming period.

5. Final Thoughts: Insure Your Positions, or Switch Tracks

The current market landscape is highly complex. The long-term demand logic for chip stocks (AI-driven) still exists, but the medium-term supply landscape (the rise of China) is undergoing structural changes. The intertwining of these two logic lines makes directional judgment exceedingly difficult.

In this environment, there are two relatively rational responses:

First, insure your existing holdings.

BIT Brokerage's options functionality has been officially launched. If you hold underlying chip stocks like SK Hynix, Micron, or SanDisk, you can hedge downside risk by buying put options — if stock prices continue to be pressured by the China competition narrative, the gains from options can offset losses in the underlying stocks; if they rebound, the maximum loss is only the option premium paid.

Second, consider switching tracks.

If you believe the "scarcity premium" of memory chips has been irreversibly eroded, consider turning your attention to targets with more restrained AI spending and more stable valuations — such as Apple, Google, etc. On the BIT platform, you can directly trade these real US stocks listed on Nasdaq, allowing for timely portfolio adjustments.

The fate of chip stocks is shifting from "self-sufficiency" to "depending on others." What investors need to do is assess the situation and insure themselves appropriately.

Risk Disclaimer: Trading options and US stocks involves the risk of loss of principal. The maximum loss for buying put options is the premium paid, and option prices fluctuate with changes in implied volatility and remaining time to expiration. Option premiums purchased after panic periods often already embed high volatility premiums. Stock prices of underlying US stocks are affected by exchange rates, industry cycles, and individual company fundamentals; historical performance does not guarantee future results. The above content is solely market observations and product feature introductions, and does not constitute specific investment advice. Please make independent judgments based on your own risk tolerance.