BTC rides a rollercoaster, HYPE hits new highs repeatedly | Special Analysis

This week has felt like a rollercoaster ride.

This week, macro pressures were released all at once—bond market crash, rising rate hike expectations, oil prices breaking $110, and BTC dropping below $78K, currently hovering in a critical range.

Structurally, I focused on analyzing two path simulations since the February low: has a new uptrend already started, or is this a B-wave rebound within a larger monthly-level correction? This judgment is still inconclusive, but the outcome of the bulls vs. bears battle in the $78,500-$79,500 area is the most important observation window this week.

In terms of operations, I remain on the sidelines for mid-term positions. For short-term trades, I have prepared A/B two sets of plans around support and resistance levels, with position sizes controlled within 30% and strict stop-loss discipline.

Key Trading Views Summary for This Week:

• BTC Multi-timeframe Structure Analysis (Comparison of Two Subsequent Path Simulations) (Detailed in Part 1)

• BTC This Week's Price Forecast & Mid-term/Short-term Trading Strategies (Detailed in Part 2) 

• HYPE Daily Level Structure Analysis (Detailed in Part 3)

• HYPE This Week's Price Forecast & Short-term Trading Strategies (Detailed in Part 4)

Market Validation of Last Week's Trading Strategy and Core Views:

• BTC Short-term Trade Outcome: Last week, Bitcoin completed one short-term long trade (1x leverage), achieving a profit of approximately 2.02%. (See Table 1 for details)

• Market Validation of BTC Price Forecast: In last week's article, we pointed out that the market was likely to engage in a high-level wide-range consolidation around the $79,500 to $80,600 area. The current market movement has validated our previous forecast.

1. Let's First Look at the BTC Simulation

1. Structure Analysis of BTC's Move Since the February Low: Two Key Path Simulations and Bull vs. Bear Game

In previous weekly reviews, we proposed three main wave structure simulations in the analysis of Bitcoin's daily-level correction structure since the October 2025 high ($126,200). Currently, because the rebound wave D in Simulation 2 (complex five-wave correction structure) has significantly surpassed the preceding wave B in duration, overly extending the time dimension and disrupting the balance of the wave structure, its probability has substantially decreased. Therefore, the core market divergence and future direction decision will focus on the other two simulations. This content will conduct an in-depth analysis and probability comparison of these two simulation paths.

①. Path One: Correction Ended, New Uptrend Has Started (Bullish View)

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart:

Figure 1

As shown in (Figure 1), this view posits that the daily-level correction starting from the previous high of $126,200 completed an A-B-C three-wave structure. Wave C ended at $60,000 (the low on February 6th), and the market has transitioned from a downtrend to an uptrend. Currently, it is running the major Wave I (i.e., the initial launch wave). (Detailed explanations were provided in previous articles, so they won't be repeated here.)

•  Major Wave I (Initial Launch Wave): $60,000 (2026-02-06) to present, has been running for about 100 days, with a maximum gain of approximately 38.1% during this period. It is still in progress.

•  Potential Major Wave II (Correction Wave): The correction wave that will run after Major Wave I ends. Its low will not break below $60,000.

②. Path Two: Monthly-Level Correction Structure, Currently in B-Wave Rebound (Bearish View)

Bitcoin _ Monthly K-line Chart:

Figure 2

As shown in (Figure 2), this view posits that the correction starting from the previous high of $126,200 is likely to form a monthly-level a-b-c three-wave correction structure, currently running a b-wave rebound.

•  Wave a (Downward Wave): $126,200 (2025-10-06) to $60,000 (2026-02-06), lasting about 4 months (approx. 122 days), with a maximum decline of approximately 52.5%.

•  Wave b (Rebound Wave): $60,000 (2026-02-06) to present, lasting over 3 months (approx. 100 days), with a maximum gain of approximately 38.1%. It is still in progress.

•  Potential Wave c (Downward Wave): The correction wave that will run after the b-wave rebound ends. Its low may break below the $60,000 level.

③. Assessing the Probability of "Path Two" from a Monthly Perspective

The Bitcoin monthly chart shows: from January 1, 2017, to present (extracting only this complete segment of trading data), it can be subdivided into a 4-segment structure:

•  Segment 0-1 (Uptrend Cycle): From $751 (2017-01-01) to $69,000 (2021-11-10), lasting approximately 59 months (about 1774 days).

•  Segment 1-2 (Correction Cycle): From $69,000 (2021-11-10) to $15,476 (2022-11-21), lasting about 13 months (approx. 376 days). A deep retracement relative to the previous uptrend phase (Segment 0-1), with a maximum decline of about 77.57%.

•  Segment 2-3 (Uptrend Cycle): From $15,476 (2022-11-21) to $126,200 (2025-10-06), lasting about 35 months (1050 days). The main upward wave that created a new all-time high, with a maximum gain of approximately 715.46%.

•  Segment 3-4 (Correction Cycle): From $126,200 (2025-10-06) to present, has been running for about 7 months (approx. 223 days), with a maximum decline of 52.46%. It is still in progress. A retracement relative to the previous main upward wave (Segment 2-3).

•  From a monthly perspective, the current market is within the 3-4 correction cycle. If it follows the principles of cycle alternation and time symmetry, and exhibits a certain proportional relationship in magnitude and time with the "1-2 correction segment" and the "2-3 uptrend segment," then the probability of the correction structure described by "Path Two" increases significantly. This implies that the current rebound from the February 6th low is merely a part of a larger-scale correction.

④. Based on the simulation analysis of the two paths above, both are realistic possibilities in the current macro and technical environment. To determine their relative probability, the core lies in examining the nature of the rebound started from the February 6th low. Its time span and spatial magnitude have become key judgment criteria.

⑤. Our core view is as follows:

•  If this rebound exhausts itself and ends in the near term, the probability of the market choosing "Path Two" will increase significantly.

•  Conversely, if the rebound continues to extend in time and space, the likelihood of the market choosing "Path One" will increase substantially.

To this end, we propose an observable quantitative threshold: if the height of this rebound can break through the $90,000 to $93,100 area, it could be an important factor confirming whether the market structure has fundamentally changed.

We also believe that, regardless of which path the market chooses, by analyzing historical cycle patterns and macro liquidity expectations, a relatively reliable bottom structure is more likely to gradually form and be confirmed in the fourth quarter of this year.

2. In-depth Analysis of BTC's Hourly Level Structure: (Using 4-hour as the analysis cycle)

Bitcoin _ 4-hour K-line Chart

Figure 3

As shown in (Figure 3), from the departure segment of "Central Hub C" (26-27) to the present:

• On the 4-hour chart, it can be subdivided into a 6-segment structure: 26-27, 27-28, 28-29, 29-30, 30-31, 31-32. Because segments 27-28, 28-29, 29-30, and 30-31 overlap each other, they form Central Hub D.

 • Currently, the departure segment (31-32) is moving downwards and has broken below the support of the Central Hub D lower rail ($79,200) and the Central Hub C upper rail ($78,500). If the price subsequently confirms an effective breakdown of the $78,500 ~ $79,200 area, a daily-level correction structure may be initiated.

2. How to Operate Next

1. BTC Price Forecast for This Week:

Core View for This Week: The key to the trend lies in observing the outcome of the battle between bulls and bears over the $78,500 ~ $79,500 area. The gain or loss of this area can serve as an important basis for judging whether the price can maintain a high-level consolidation or turn downwards for a correction. 

2. Key Resistance Levels:

    • First Resistance Zone: $78,500 ~ $79,500 area (Near the upper and lower rails of the two central hubs)  

    • Second Resistance Zone: $83,500 ~ $84,500 area (Previous high-volume bullish/bearish chip accumulation zone) 

3. Key Support Levels:

    • First Support Level: $73,500 ~ $75,000 area (Previous key support level)   

    • Second Support Level: $69,500 ~ $70,500 area (Previous key support level)

4. Trading Strategy for This Week (Excluding Unexpected News Impact)

①, Mid-term Strategy:

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure 4

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Figure 4), based on trading rules, the mid-term direction of the market is not yet clear. This week, we will maintain a cash-heavy, wait-and-see strategy for mid-term positions.

②, Short-term Strategy: Utilize 30% of capital, set stop-loss points, and look for "spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use 30-minute/60-minute as the operation cycle).

③, In short-term operations, to dynamically respond to complex market developments, we have prepared A/B two specific operational contingency plans.

 • Plan A: Rebound Meets Resistance, Sell High (Short).

    • Entry: When the price rebounds to the $78,500 ~ $79,500 area and meets resistance, combined with a top signal from the quantitative model, establish a short position below 30% of capital.

    • Risk Control: Initial stop-loss set above $80,600.

    • Exit: When the price adjusts near key resistance levels combined with model signals, gradually close the position to lock in profits.

• Plan B: Effective Breakdown of Support, Follow the Trend Short.

    • Entry: When the price effectively breaks below the support level of $73,500 ~ $75,000 area, combined with a top signal from the model, establish a short position below 30% of capital.

    • Risk Control: Initial stop-loss set above $76,500.

    • Exit: When the price drops near key support levels combined with model signals, gradually close the position to lock in profits.

3. After BTC, Let's Look at HYPE

BTC is still seesawing within the $78K-$82K range, with neither bulls nor bears gaining an advantage. HYPE, on the other hand, is minding its own business, hitting new highs repeatedly, rising over 10% this week.

HYPE _ Daily K-line Chart

Figure 5

1. As shown in (Figure 5), the upward trend of HYPE starting from the low of $20.46 on January 21st can be divided into nine segments on the daily chart: 0-1, 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, 4-5, 5-6, 6-7, 7-8, 8-9. Since the price recently hit a new high of $47.30 (endpoint 9) since the upward move from $20.46, the current price structure remains in a daily-level uptrend.

2. (Figure 5) shows that because segments 1-2, 2-3, and 3-4 overlap each other, they collectively form a daily-level "upward central hub."

3. If the HYPE price can consistently operate above the key level of $38.41 (upper rail of the hub), the market is expected to maintain a high-level consolidation pattern on the daily timeframe, digesting previous gains and accumulating directional momentum.

 4. HYPE Trend Judgment and Subsequent Operation Predictions  

1. HYPE Price Forecast for This Week:

Core View for HYPE This Week: Focus on observing the outcome of the battle between bulls and bears around the upper rail of the central hub ($38.41) and the previous high ($45.76).

2. HYPE Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week:

Based on the current market structure, we have optimized and formulated the following three sets of short-term operational contingency plans, centered around the battle for the "central hub upper rail ($38.41) and previous high ($45.76)."

• Plan A: Breakout Go Long (Trend Continuation)

If the price effectively breaks through and holds above the $45.76 support, combined with bottom signals triggered by the two major models, consider a small long position. Position size must be controlled below 30%, and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline.

• Plan B: Breakdown Go Short (Trend Reversal)

If the price effectively breaks below the $45.76 support, combined with top signals triggered by the two major models, consider a small short position. Position size must be controlled below 30%, and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline.

• Plan C: Support Go Long (Trend Turnaround)

If the price pulls back to around $38.41, stabilizes, and shows signs of bottoming, combined with bottom signals triggered by the two major models, consider a small long position. Position size must be controlled below 30%, and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline.

5. Finally, a Word on Results

1. Short-term Trade Review: (See Table 1)

Strictly following the operational contingency plan, based on trading signals from our proprietary spread trading model and momentum quantitative model, we completed one short-term trade (long position) last week, achieving a profit of 2.02%.

① Bitcoin Short-term Trade Detail Summary: (