BitMart Research Weekly Macro: A Comprehensive Review of Oil, AI Tech Stocks, and the Crypto Market
- Core Viewpoint: On the macro front, US employment data shows structural divergence and is distorted by model adjustments, while AI's impact on employment has not yet manifested systematically. Crude oil inventories are supporting prices, but demand is being suppressed, with China playing a significant stabilizing role. The crypto market is seeing a modest uptick driven by a recovery in broad market risk appetite. Institutional buying is measured, and stablecoin issuance provides a model for dual-track valuation arbitrage alongside the trend of institutions building their own public chains.
- Key Elements:
- US non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000 in April, but growth was heavily reliant on the healthcare sector (adding 618,000) and was positively adjusted by approximately 391,000 due to the "Business Birth/Death Model." However, the Household Survey indicated a decrease of 226,000 in employment, raising questions about data reliability.
- Global crude oil buffer inventories have been depleted by about 300 million barrels to approximately 800 million barrels, supporting oil prices near $100. However, high prices are dampening demand. China's average daily crude oil imports fell by about 3.5 million barrels in April, and a pause in restocking has temporarily eased supply-demand tensions.
- AI tech stocks face short-term index weighting adjustment pressure from the potential IPO of SpaceX (which may trigger selling of leaders like Nvidia). The mid-term earnings season will test AI's ROI and commercialization efficiency. By year-end, the sector may face a bubble stress test due to IPOs and the election.
- In the crypto market, BTC prices rose from $77,000 to $82,000. There is strong active buying intent on the spot side (indicated by strong CVD data), while perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, suggesting persistent short selling of altcoins or ETH by some funds.
- Last week saw net ETF inflows of approximately $791 million, but institutional buying was measured: BMBMR bought around 26,000 ETH, below the expected 70,000; Strategy bought only 535 BTC at an average price of $80,000.
- Circle's self-built public chain, ARC, secured funding at a $3 billion valuation. The industry's "IPO + token/chain issuance" dual-track arbitrage model is becoming clear. Stablecoins, payment networks, and institution-built chains may represent the next phase of structural opportunities.
I. Macro Economy and Traditional Financial Markets (Macro)
1. U.S. Employment Data and AI's Impact on Jobs
Non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000 in April, on the surface beating expectations, but the market has questioned the data's quality. Job growth has been highly concentrated in the healthcare sector, which added approximately 618,000 jobs over the past year, while other sectors combined saw a decrease of about 367,000 jobs. Manufacturing employment also turned negative for the first time this year, indicating a widening structural divergence in the job market.
The relatively strong April non-farm payrolls figure was significantly influenced by the "business birth/death model." This model applied a positive adjustment of about 391,000 jobs in April, meaning that some new jobs were more a result of model estimation rather than actual survey findings. In contrast, the household survey indicated that the actual number of employed persons decreased by roughly 226,000 in April. This stark divergence has deepened market skepticism regarding the reliability of the employment data.
AI's impact on employment is starting to draw attention. Information sector positions decreased by about 30,000 in April, and have been declining consistently this year, sparking discussions about "AI replacing jobs." However, the U.S. unemployment rate remains around 4.3%, making it difficult to determine if AI has already caused a systemic shock to the overall labor market. Subsequent observation is needed to see if new demand can absorb the displaced workforce.
2. Crude Oil Market and Geopolitics
Oil prices have recently remained near $100 per barrel. Global available crude oil buffer inventory stands at approximately 800 million barrels, with about 300 million barrels consumed by the end of April, providing support for prices from the inventory side. However, high oil prices are also clearly suppressing demand, with global daily oil demand decreasing by roughly 2.8 million barrels and 4.3 million barrels in March and April, respectively.
China is playing a "ballast" role in the current oil price trend. China's current crude oil reserves are about 1.4 billion barrels. It significantly reduced crude oil imports in April, with daily imports dropping by about 3.5 million barrels to their lowest level since 2024. China's pause or slowdown in replenishing its reserves has, to some extent, alleviated the tight global crude oil supply-demand balance, also curbing further upward price movement.
Regarding U.S.-Iran relations, the probability of both parties reaching a phased memorandum of understanding this month is relatively high. The core focus is likely on maintaining the openness of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing conflict risks, and curbing oil prices. Maintaining short-term controllability of the situation and avoiding runaway oil prices serves the interests of both sides.
3. Short-to-Medium-to-Long Term Outlook for AI Tech Stocks
In the short term, signals for AI tech stocks are mixed. Positive factors include the potential marginal easing of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations, and a possible improved market risk appetite if the U.S. and Iran reach a phased agreement. Negative factors stem from potential index weight adjustment pressures. If SpaceX lists in June and is included in the Nasdaq 100 index, passive funds might need to sell top-five weighted tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft to free up weight, creating temporary liquidity pressure on AI leaders. However, lower-ranked constituent stocks like Micron (MU) could benefit.
In the medium term, the mid-July earnings season will serve as a crucial verification point for AI tech stocks. The market's valuation framework for AI stocks is entering the "second half," shifting from thematic narrative-driven to placing greater emphasis on AI investment ROI, commercialization efficiency per unit cost, and actual profitability.
In the long term, year-end could become a significant test phase for the AI bubble. The U.S. elections might bring policy disruptions. If trillion-dollar valuation AI application companies like OpenAI or Anthropic initiate IPOs, it could also drain liquidity from the secondary market. Furthermore, if corporate capital expenditures consistently exceed their own cash flow and rely on debt financing, AI stocks could enter the late-stage of a bubble, facing a stress test similar to the late-stage internet bubble.
II. Crypto Market Trends and Ecosystem
1. Market Snapshot and Trading Data
The crypto market has recently been primarily driven by the repair of general market risk appetite, showing a generally mild bullish trend. BTC price has risen from approximately $77,000 last week to about $82,000. Spot trading volume has rebounded somewhat but remains at relatively low levels; the CVD indicator has performed strongly, suggesting clear active buying intent on the spot side, with buying power dominating.
On the derivatives side, open interest has increased alongside the price rise, but the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative, indicating that some capital in the market continues to short, primarily concentrated in altcoins or ETH. In the options market, investors' willingness to buy Puts as downside protection has decreased; bearish demand has receded, while bullish sentiment has spread. The overall structure suggests that this rally may have moved from its early phase into the middle stage, but attention is still needed to see if subsequent trading volume can pick up.
Regarding large capital flows, ETFs continued to see net inflows last week, totaling approximately $791 million. BMBMR bought about 26,000 ETH, below the market's previously expected floor of 70,000. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) made a small purchase of 535 BTC at an average buy price near $80,000. Overall, institutional buying is still present, but it is relatively moderate compared to expectations.
2. Stablecoins and the Trend of Institutions Launching Their Own Chains
Circle's recent financial report showed revenues that fell short of expectations, but its stock price performance was relatively resilient, indicating that the market still recognizes its long-term narrative. Simultaneously, Circle's self-built public chain, ARC, achieved a valuation of approximately $3 billion in financing. The trend of stablecoin issuers extending into underlying infrastructure is becoming clearer.
A dual-track arbitrage model of "public listing + coin/chain issuance" is emerging within the industry. On one hand, projects gain compliance status, capital from traditional capital markets, and credibility through the public listing of a traditional entity. On the other hand, they build a public chain and issue tokens through another entity to capture crypto market liquidity, benefiting from the dual premium of equity valuation and token valuation.
Circle has already provided a clear demonstration effect. Other projects with established user bases, payment scenarios, or social ecosystems may follow similar paths. For instance, the likelihood of projects like the Telegram ecosystem and PM capturing on-chain liquidity through launching a chain or token is increasing. Stablecoins, payment networks, and institution-built chains could become significant structural opportunities for the crypto market in the next phase.
This article is solely a market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk management before trading.
