BitMart Research Weekly Highlights: Macro and Crypto Markets Amid Geopolitical Risks and Stagflation Game

Recently, the global financial markets have been in a sensitive phase intertwined with multiple variables. The ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, weakening U.S. economic data, and renewed inflation expectations have led to intense competition between "stagflation trading" and "soft landing trading" at the macro level. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market has shown independent performance, with BTC leading the rebound ahead of U.S. stocks. A clear divergence in holdings between institutions and retail investors is evident, and the market's short-term direction is gradually becoming clearer. BitMart Research combines core variables from both the macro and crypto markets to provide the latest insights and outlook.

1. Macro Economy: Middle East Disrupts Energy Supply, U.S. Stagflation Risk Rises

1.1 Geopolitics Triggers Energy Supply Shock

The current global market focus is centered on the Middle East situation. Conflicts involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran directly threaten the security of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran may disrupt oil tanker traffic through means such as drones, leading to a halt in shipping insurance and vessels avoiding the route. This poses a significant risk of supply shock for global crude oil and natural gas. If the situation escalates further, major oil-producing countries in the Gulf could face forced production shutdowns within weeks to a month. International oil prices have already experienced sharp fluctuations, once approaching $120 per barrel.

1.2 U.S. Employment Data Shows Broad Weakness

Although overshadowed by geopolitical news, the latest U.S. employment data reveals weakness. Core sectors such as manufacturing, real estate, services, IT, healthcare, and education have all seen layoffs or slowing growth. Simultaneously, the decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate and the concurrent rise in the unemployment rate indicate that the actual employment situation is more severe than the surface data suggests, with increasing economic downward pressure.

1.3 Inflation Rebound Limits Fed's Rate Cut Room

Rising oil prices, combined with adjustments to the CPI calculation method (interpolation method), will drive a noticeable rebound in U.S. CPI over the coming months. Consequently, market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026 have been significantly revised downward. The current mainstream expectation is now only two rate cuts, with a consensus forming around a delayed and weaker easing cycle.

1.4 U.S. Stocks Weak and Volatile, Asset Allocation Shifts Defensive

U.S. stocks are highly likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term, with indices potentially moving within the 6700–7000 point range. The probability of breaking below 6700 points is increasing. If the Middle East situation suddenly eases, the market could see a rapid rebound due to short covering. The current market is oscillating between "stagflation trading" and "soft landing trading." If energy supply shocks continue to drag on the economy, stagflation trading will become the dominant theme.

At the allocation level, a hedging approach is recommended: position in the oil and gas sector and fertilizer companies benefiting from the Europe-U.S. natural gas price spread. Simultaneously, be vigilant about debt default risks in the AI industry chain and software companies driven by private equity funds, guarding against potential phased liquidity shocks.

2. Crypto Market: BTC Shows Independent Strength, Institutional and Retail Sentiment Diverges

2.1 BTC Leads Rebound, Short-term Test of $80K Likely

BTC staged a strong rebound after market panic, touching a high of $74,000. It is currently oscillating within the $60,000–$74,000 range, once again demonstrating the classic cyclical characteristic of falling before U.S. stocks and rebounding before them. In the short term, BTC still possesses rebound momentum and is highly likely to challenge the $80,000 level. Subsequently, it may enter a consolidation phase alongside U.S. stocks.

2.2 Derivatives Signals: Leverage Rises, Hedging Demand Heats Up

The spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) remains negative, indicating slightly dominant active selling pressure. However, during the price pullback, futures Open Interest has continued to rise, suggesting a gradual increase in market leverage levels. The perpetual swap funding rate briefly turned negative (longs paying shorts), which typically corresponds to a phased bottoming area. In the options market, put option premiums have risen sharply, indicating a significant increase in investors' willingness to hedge against downside risks.

2.3 Institutions Continue Accumulation, Retail and Whale Holdings Diverge

Bitcoin ETFs saw small net inflows last week. MicroStrategy spent approximately $1.2 billion in a single week (buying about 17,000 BTC), setting a new historical record for weekly accumulation. Crypto-related U.S. stocks like Coinbase and MSTR rose strongly, indicating that some capital is positioning ahead of potential policy and regulatory tailwinds.

On-chain and DEX data show that small wallets (retail investors) have a long position ratio exceeding 60%, while quantitative funds and whales lean bearish, highlighting a clear divergence in sentiment between institutions and retail.

2.4 Altcoins Remain Lackluster, Capital Focuses on Top Assets

The altcoin sector currently lacks a dominant narrative and capital inflows. Apart from a few popular Meme coins, most tokens are performing sluggishly. Market attention remains concentrated on BTC and a handful of top-tier assets.

3. Summary and Outlook

At the macro level, Middle East geopolitical risks and energy supply shocks are the biggest short-term variables. The stagflation narrative is gradually strengthening, putting pressure on U.S. stocks and favoring defensive and hedging assets. The crypto market, however, is showing relatively independent performance, with BTC's resilience standing out. Continued institutional accumulation supports mid-term prices, and a short-term rebound window still exists. However, vigilance is needed against potential spillover pressure from a U.S. stock market correction.

BitMart Research reminds investors to closely monitor developments in the Middle East situation, U.S. inflation data, and Fed communications. In this high-volatility environment, control position sizes, implement risk hedging strategies, and prioritize attention on top-tier assets with ample liquidity and sectors with genuine demand.