BIT Research: Five Signals Simultaneously Flash, Has the Bitcoin Bear Market Ended?

The market is currently at a critical turning point. Multiple independent technical indicators are gradually converging towards the same conclusion: the Bitcoin bear market that began in October 2025 may be nearing its end, or may have already concluded. Unlike the prolonged and repeatedly bottom-testing bear market of 2022, the market structure in this cycle has undergone significant changes. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and a temporary easing of regulatory uncertainty have created an environment lacking "passive excessive selling pressure" during the price decline. Furthermore, historical experience shows that Bitcoin rarely enters a unilateral uptrend without experiencing consolidation; the current phase is more likely a "consolidation period following bottom confirmation."

In this context, the reference value of a single indicator is limited. However, when multiple signals begin to appear simultaneously, the conclusion they point to is becoming clearer: the market is gradually transitioning from a downward trend to a phase of inflection point confirmation.

Concentration of Technical Signals: From Bottom Formation to Trend Recovery

From a technical structure perspective, the most crucial change in this market cycle is the "signal resonance." First, the weekly Stochastic Oscillator has moved back above 20. This pattern typically emerges after the worst phase of a market and has historically corresponded more often with bottom formation rather than a continuation of the downtrend. Concurrently, a new trend signal has reappeared. Having failed to materialize on two previous occasions, its triggering this time significantly enhances its reference value.

Secondly, the Bitcoin price is gradually approaching the 21-week moving average (approximately $77,592), a level long regarded as a key reference line distinguishing between bull and bear cycles. With the current price oscillating around $75,000, a return above this range is more a matter of time. A decisive break and consolidation above it would constitute a clear trend confirmation signal.

Additionally, there is a possibility for the monthly RSI to return above its moving average. Historically, this signal has often appeared near bear market bottom zones. If it materializes again in this cycle, it would further strengthen the judgment that the market has completed its bottom formation. Overall, while these indicators hold limited significance when appearing individually, their concentrated emergence within the same time window suggests the market state has shifted from "continuation of the downtrend" to "gradual establishment of a bottom structure."

Confirmation of Key Price Ranges: From Consolidation Recovery to Uptrend Preparation

Beyond technical indicators, price action remains the most critical validation variable. The market is currently testing the crucial range of $66,000–$73,000. The high of approximately $73,084 reached in March 2024 has formed a medium-term top structure. If the price can effectively break through and stabilize above this range, it would signify a substantive reversal of the prior downtrend.

Structurally, there are some similarities between the current price action and that of a year ago: the market experienced a rapid decline due to external shocks, entered a period of narrow-range consolidation, and ultimately completed a trend shift through an upward breakout. The price has now begun testing the upper boundary of the range. If this rhythm continues, a near-term test of $88,000 or higher would not be considered aggressive. Meanwhile, the $64,972 level has become a significant support for the current phase. As long as the price remains above this level, the overall trend will gradually shift from neutral to bullish. Therefore, rather than debating whether the market has "already entered a bull market," the more critical question is: can the price complete the range breakout to confirm the trend shift?

Currently, five signals are gradually pointing in the same direction: the weekly Stochastic turning stronger, the trend signal reappearing, the price approaching the 21-week MA, the potential confirmation from the monthly RSI, and the effective break of the prior downtrend. A single signal is insufficient for a definitive conclusion, but when these signals concentrate in the same phase, the credibility of their implied conclusion increases significantly. Synthesizing these factors, the bear market that began in October 2025 may be nearing its end.

For the market, the focus is also shifting: the question is no longer whether Bitcoin will continue its recovery, but rather, once the trend shift is truly complete, how the speed and magnitude of the subsequent uptrend will unfold. In this process, the breakout of price ranges and changes in liquidity conditions will become the most critical variables to observe in the next phase.

Some of the above viewpoints are from BIT on Target. Contact us to obtain the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.