From Maduro's Arrest to the US-Iran Ceasefire, the Insider Network Around Trump

"Insiders" are likely figures that stock investors both love and hate. Love, because following their lead is akin to having the answer sheet in advance; hate, because the cards they hold are forever hidden from view.

However, even the most well-connected insiders have their limitations in the stock market. You might know the US is going to strike Iran, but variables like how much the strongly correlated defense stocks will rise, when they will rise, or whether they might be temporarily depressed by broader market sentiment are all uncontrollable.

The five insiders we discuss today, however, managed to profit $1.3 million from information asymmetry with just a few trades, without needing to consider the underlying asset, entry timing, or even worry about exposing their identities. Among them, one was trading just half an hour before the US-Israel-Iran conflict began, while another achieved a 20x return through compound interest from two trades.

Their "cash-out channel" is Polymarket, a prediction market platform built on the anonymity features of blockchain. Unlike trading stocks or commodities, prediction markets trade on the question of "whether an event will happen."

When you know for certain that "Trump will negotiate peace with Iran next week," the lowest-risk way to profit is to bet against others predicting that "the US and Iran will definitely negotiate peace next week."

Today, we will delve into the data of these five accounts to see why their profiles fit the characteristics of "insiders."

Twenty Thousand Capital, Two Trades, Twenty-Fold Compound Interest

Since 2026, three geopolitical trading events on Polymarket have gained significant traction: the arrest of Maduro, the joint US-Israel strike on Iran, and the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. These three events collectively contributed $860 million in trading volume to the platform.

The five accounts we mention today profited handsomely in an extremely short time by consecutively "betting correctly" on these world-shocking geopolitical events. For example, after successfully predicting the timing of the US-Israel-Iran conflict with $20,000, Account 1 went all-in, principal and profit, on "betting" the US-Iran ceasefire, earning $400,000 and achieving a 20x return.

What's even more peculiar is that these accounts were registered in December 2025 and February of this year, respectively: one before Maduro's arrest and the other on the eve of the current US-Israel-Iran conflict. Furthermore, their total participation in markets on this platform is remarkably low, as if their sole purpose was to participate in the specific bets they knew they would win.

If registration timing, low trade count, and high profitability are still insufficient to prove their insider profile, the truly suspicious aspects are the following two things.

"Small Bets for Fun, Big Bets Because I Know I Can't Lose"

One of the biggest differences between a gambler and an insider is that the insider knows the outcome of the bet, thus daring to place heavy stakes on opportunities with certainty. The characteristics displayed by these five accounts in this regard perfectly illustrate their distinction from gamblers.

By calculating the proportion of each account's investment in these three events relative to their total investment, we can see that although the investment amounts of these five accounts vary, their proportion data is highly consistent. Even Account 2, with the most dispersed behavior, had 93% of its funds placed in related markets.

This level of concentration is statistically abnormal. Even analytical speculators focused on geopolitics typically spread their positions across dozens of markets to manage uncertainty. The choice of these five accounts seems more like: identifying a few targets, putting almost all their chips in, while other markets are unimportant.

Predicting "War is Coming" in the Market 21 Minutes Before the Strike

If fund concentration outlines the profile, then the timing of position building is the most direct evidence.

Around 14:20 Beijing time on February 28, explosions were heard in Tehran, Iran's capital, and Israel announced the attack on Iran. Simultaneously, the probability for the market "Will the US strike Iran before February 28?" surged from 20% to 99% in a short time, followed by settlement.

Among the three accounts participating in this market, two bet "Yes" on the day of the strike, with Account 3 placing its first bet 21 minutes before the strike. This bet quadrupled in value half an hour later.

The plot of the market "Will the US × Iran ceasefire before April 15?" is even more astonishing. The three accounts participating in this market bought the "Yes" option half a month before the ceasefire, and their positions shrank by over 80% in the following two weeks as the situation grew increasingly tense.

In early April, when most macro analysts and think tanks were proclaiming "the conflict is about to escalate into ground warfare," these three accounts were investing more funds, convinced that a ceasefire would materialize within the next two weeks.

At 06:32 Beijing time on April 8, Trump announced the ceasefire on Truth Social, sending the probability from 20% straight to 100%. These three accounts profited nearly $750,000 from this ceasefire.

Losses, Ironically, Further Confirm the Insider Profile

These five accounts are not flawless—Account 3 and Account 4 both lost money in the market "Will Maduro step down within 2025?" At first glance, this loss seems sufficient to clear them of insider suspicion.

However, if we consider Trump's media interview the day after Maduro's capture, this loss actually solidifies their insider profile.

On January 4, 2026, Trump revealed in an interview with Fox News that the US military originally planned to execute the Venezuela operation on December 29, 2025, but waited several days due to unsuitable weather conditions, finally carrying it out on January 3.

In other words, if the weather had cooperated, Maduro would have been arrested within 2025, "Will Maduro step down within 2025?" would have settled as "Yes," and the $12,000 loss for these two accounts would have transformed into over $400,000 in profit.

They lost because of the weather, not because they misjudged the event itself. Knowing Maduro's fate was still sealed, both continued to bet on "Will Maduro step down before January 31, 2026?" ultimately profiting nearly $300,000.

Precedent Exists: Someone Was Arrested for This

This is not the first time someone has brought military insider information to Polymarket for arbitrage.

In June 2025, Israel launched a 12-day military operation against Iran. Subsequently, Israeli authorities investigated and charged two men: an Israeli Air Force reserve major and his civilian accomplice.

According to the indictment, as Israeli fighter jets were taking off to strike Iran, the major notified his accomplice, who then bought into the relevant market on Polymarket, profiting approximately $163,000 from this bet.

The recent US-Venezuela event also caught the attention of US law enforcement. According to Fortune, multiple suspicious account trades appearing during the US-Venezuela event drew the attention of the Southern District of New York's law enforcement, which later met with Polymarket representatives to discuss "potential misconduct."

Congressman Ritchie Torres subsequently proposed legislation to restrict government employees from trading contracts related to political events. There is no public prosecution result yet, but the mere fact of federal investigation indicates this is not an isolated coincidence.

The Israeli arrest case has already confirmed one thing: people indeed bring military insider information to Polymarket, and people indeed face prosecution for it. The five accounts analyzed in this article present a more systematic version—new accounts, highly concentrated funds, abnormally precise entry timing, and a clean exit after event settlement.

Beyond discussing the legal risks these insiders might face, for observers, this situation also presents another layer of potential opportunity: when insider capital flows into prediction markets, the market price itself becomes a signal, allowing us to glimpse the outline of the future before events even unfold.