Polymarket vs. Kalshi: The Complete Timeline of the Prediction Market 'Meme War'

Original Title: Polymarket v. Kalshi: A Complete Timeline of The Prediction Market Meme Wars

Original Author: Hunter Ryerson, Pirate Wires

Original Compilation: Peggy, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: From free grocery stores to meme wars of mutual mockery, the competition between Polymarket and Kalshi has long transcended mere product and market share battles, evolving into a meticulously orchestrated war for attention. This article outlines the timeline of the rivalry between these two prediction market platforms over several years: regulatory chess games, user bans and returns, "competitive shitposting" on social media, and marketing stunts that ultimately spilled over into the real world. Behind the seemingly absurd, dramatic maneuvers lies a continuous rise in trading volume, valuation, and capital expectations.

The following is the original text:

Early morning, February 12th, Manhattan. You wake up in a $2,000-a-month apartment the size of a shoebox, crank up the heat, shuffle to the pantry to see if you can scrape together some breakfast. Then you remember: at 3 AM last night, you already heated up and ate the last packet of instant ramen.

Just as you're debating whether to dedicate another 20% of your income to DoorDash, a friend texts you about a new grocery store called "The Polymarket" on Madison Street—and everything inside is completely free. So, naturally, you put on pants, wander down to Lower Manhattan, successfully squeeze into the store, instantly switch into "Black Friday feral shopping" mode, grabbing wildly at everything in sight, hoarding anything your debt-ridden hands can clutch.

As you head home with bulging shopping bags stuffed with Sour Patch Kids and the first vegetables you've touched in weeks tucked under your arm, you pass another billboard ad: a market in the East Village is running a promotion—sponsored by a company called "Kalshi"—offering $50 in free groceries.

Am I dreaming? How am I this lucky?

Congratulations, you've been swept into the latest round of prediction market advertising warfare.

That's right. Just this week, the viral prediction market platform Polymarket announced its latest marketing stunt: opening a "completely free grocery store" in New York City, operating from February 12th to February 16th.

Not to be outdone, its competitor, another prediction market called Kalshi, preemptively launched its own "grocery-themed" marketing campaign: a one-day event at Westside Market on Third Avenue, offering everyone a $50 universal grocery subsidy.

This "tit-for-tat" imitation prompted an X user to complain: "Kalshi and Polymarket literally can't go 24 hours without copying each other on everything."

At first glance, it sounds absurd that Polymarket and Kalshi are competing on marketing with "free bananas." But this is merely the latest act in a years-long, bitter feud between the two platforms. Remember, they each handle billions of dollars in weekly trading volume. Their business model, in essence, is this: people can bet on seemingly innocuous event outcomes for potentially massive returns—like whether the US military will capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro while he's wearing athleisure pajamas. (Some anonymous internet sleuth, hopefully not Pete Hegseth, cleaned up that night.)

In any case, throughout their short five-year history, these two prediction market platforms have always been rivals, but the truly heated conflict has erupted fully only in the last two years.

Polymarket, founded in 2020 by NYU dropout Shayne Coplan, is a cryptocurrency-based platform. Bettors need to deposit USDC stablecoins, equivalent to US dollars, on the Polygon blockchain to buy "Yes" or "No" prediction shares.

In contrast, Kalshi initially operated almost entirely in US dollars, with transactions and fund transfers handled through traditional bank accounts. Since its launch in 2021, it has primarily focused on sports betting, which accounts for about 90% of its total trading volume. Polymarket leans more towards geopolitical and cultural events, like wars, conflicts, and elections, even paying American influencers to promote its political content.

From 2022 to 2025, under intense regulatory pressure (and a $1.4 million fine) from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Polymarket banned U.S. users from its platform, effectively ceding the American market to Kalshi for several years. But just a few months ago, Polymarket returned to the U.S. market, reigniting fierce conflict between the two, with friction playing out on X and across the broader internet.

For the "chronically online," the most entertaining aspect of this war has been the so-called "competitive shitposting."

In the sports realm, this strategy manifests as parodying official sports announcement cards—the kind you often see on ESPN or FOX Sports accounts announcing trades, drafts, or injuries. The two platforms use eye-catching, joke-filled headlines to "report" sports news. For example, Polymarket's "DICK IS GROWING," alluding to Toronto Raptors player Gradey Dick's weight gain; or Kalshi's "LOVES RECEIVING BALLS," referring to San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey "loving to receive balls"—you know, in the literal, football-passing sense.

But as both sides battle for "meme-worthy attention," the tactics have gotten dirtier.

In November 2024, evidence emerged that Kalshi attempted to pay influencers—like former NFL wide receiver and current X personality Antonio Brown—to post and spread negative commentary about Polymarket (see: "Kalshi Paid Influencers to Attack Polymarket CEO After FBI Raid"). In one instance, a journalist was allegedly offered $3,500 to write a hit piece against Polymarket. (Side note: If Solana offered me that much to write a hit piece, I'd have Jackie Fielder impeached by Monday.)

The influencers allegedly "taken care of" by Kalshi collectively have millions of followers. For the past few years, they've been trying to chip away at Polymarket's credibility bit by bit.

Following this incident, the Trump administration relaxed regulations on prediction markets, allowing Polymarket to make a strong comeback in the U.S. After months of preparation, the U.S. user ban was officially lifted in December. Now, Polymarket is attempting to reclaim the majority share of the on-chain prediction market (Kalshi still dominates, especially after integrating with the Solana blockchain).

One way they've found to "amplify their voice" is: making news on X. Over the past few months, the brand accounts of Polymarket and Kalshi have clashed head-on in the timeline, using punchy headlines and celebrity quotes to vie for virality—sometimes with less regard for accuracy, or any other principle. Recently, Polymarket falsely attributed a quote to Jeff Bezos and significantly exaggerated deportation data; meanwhile, Kalshi spread false claims about negotiations to acquire Greenland.

Ultimately, this feud has spilled over from online into the real world, and hopefully, it will continue to provide some positive "spillover effects" for cash-strapped average Americans like you. But the real point is: whether it's marketing stunts like "free groceries" or mutual mockery and mudslinging on X, both companies are exceptionally skilled at generating buzz and keeping people talking about them.

No matter how questionable the stunts they pull to one-up each other—whether they seem shady or bizarrely generous—we're still talking about it.

Perhaps that's exactly what they want. Kalshi and Polymarket are valued at $11 billion and $9 billion respectively, and those numbers are climbing at a staggering rate. So, as long as the dramatic antics in this crazy war attract a few hundred more bettors to log on, or pull in a few more investors, it's all worth it. For these two "duelists," it's a win-win, if you're willing to believe it.

Original Link