Does Maduro Really Have $60 Billion in BTC Hidden?

Original Author: Cathy, Baihua Blockchain

In the early hours of January 3, 2026, U.S. special forces arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas during a military operation codenamed "Absolute Resolve."

This event has sparked a major question in the crypto community: Did the Maduro regime truly possess the rumored "shadow reserves"?

According to reports from the investigative agency Whale Hunting and multiple intelligence sources, a startling rumor has been circulating in the market: the Maduro regime may hold between 600,000 and 660,000 Bitcoin. If true, this would be worth a staggering $60-67 billion at early 2026 market prices.

What does this mean?

MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy), the company known as a "Bitcoin whale," held over 670,000 BTC as of January 2026, valued at approximately $61.3 billion. If the Venezuela rumors are accurate, its holdings would be comparable to the world's largest corporate buyer, representing about 3% of Bitcoin's total supply (21 million).

But the question is: Does this fortune truly exist? And if it does, where is it hidden?

In the crypto world, there is an ironclad rule: "Not your keys, not your coins."

 01 How Did the Rumor Originate?

To understand where the rumor of "600,000 BTC" came from, we first need to examine the theoretical avenues through which the Maduro regime could have accumulated Bitcoin. It must be emphasized that the following analysis is based on public reports and intelligence estimates, not established facts.

Avenue One: The Petro Scam – Paving the Way for Crypto Adoption

In February 2018, under heavy pressure from U.S. sanctions, Maduro announced the launch of the world's first "state-level cryptocurrency" – the Petro. The government claimed it raised $735 million on the first day, with a total fundraising target of $6 billion.

However, multiple investigations revealed serious issues with this ICO from the very beginning.

The Petro was first claimed to be based on Ethereum, then on NEM, and ultimately seemed to run on a private chain that didn't exist. The government claimed the Petro was backed by 5.3 billion barrels of crude oil from the Ayacucho Block, but on-site investigations showed dilapidated infrastructure with no extraction activity whatsoever.

The so-called "fundraising" was likely just an internal shuffling of regime assets.

Although the Petro failed, it left behind a crucial byproduct: Sunacrip (the National Superintendency of Crypto Assets). This agency was granted the power to regulate all crypto activities, issue mining licenses, and even directly operate state-owned mining pools. It was not a regulator, but a national money laundering center.

In January 2024, Maduro officially shut down the Petro. This was not a failure, but a strategic pivot – transitioning from an "issuer" to a "holder," fully embracing Bitcoin and USDT with genuine global liquidity.

Avenue Two: The PDVSA-Crypto Scandal – $21 Billion Gone Missing

Market rumors suggest the core source of the Maduro regime's potential Bitcoin reserves may be the misappropriation of oil export revenues from the state-owned oil company PDVSA.

In 2019, the U.S. imposed comprehensive sanctions on PDVSA, cutting off its access to the global banking system. To survive, PDVSA initiated an "anti-blockade" strategy:

Dark Fleet: Using tankers with transponders turned off to ship crude oil to "teapot refineries" (small, non-state-owned refineries) in Asia.

Intermediary Network: Masking the origin of crude oil through shell companies registered in places like the UAE and Russia. These intermediaries often had no experience in oil trading; their sole qualification was personal connections to the regime's core figures.

Crypto Settlement: Unable to receive USD wire transfers, intermediaries were instructed to pay for oil in USDT (Tether).

In March 2023, Venezuela was rocked by the nationwide "PDVSA-Crypto" scandal. An internal government audit revealed that approximately $21 billion in oil export receivables were unaccounted for between 2020 and 2023.

Where did this money go? It remains a mystery to this day.

Some intelligence analysts speculate that a portion may have flowed back to regime-controlled wallets via cryptocurrency. It is alleged that Sunacrip established an automated "hop" mechanism:

• Receipt: Intermediaries send USDT to intermediate wallets controlled by Sunacrip.
• Cleaning: Obfuscate the fund trail through mixers like Tornado Cash.
• Exchange: Convert USDT to Bitcoin at OTC desks in Russia or Eastern Europe.
• Storage: Transfer Bitcoin to offline-generated cold wallets, with private keys held by the highest echelons of the regime.

The core designers of this system were Tareck El Aissami (former oil minister) and Alex Saab (the regime's "financial diplomat"). El Aissami resigned in March 2023 and was arrested in April 2024 on corruption charges, facing multiple counts including treason and money laundering. The assets he controlled were likely confiscated by the Maduro family.

Saab, however, returned to Venezuela in a December 2023 prisoner swap with the U.S., exchanged for 10 American prisoners. This demonstrated his irreplaceability in Maduro's eyes – an importance likely stemming from his control over the financial lifeline.

Avenue Three: Military Mining – "National Hashrate" from Confiscated Miners

Beyond oil revenue, another theory suggests the Venezuelan regime may have directly produced Bitcoin by controlling the "means of production."

Venezuela has some of the world's cheapest electricity, primarily from the Guri Dam. This makes Bitcoin mining highly profitable. The Maduro government monopolized this advantage through the military commercial entity – CAMIMPEG (Military Company of Mining, Petroleum, and Gas).

CAMIMPEG established "Bolivarian Army Digital Asset Production Centers." These military mining farms enjoyed privileges:

• Guaranteed Power: Priority electricity supply amidst nationwide frequent blackouts.
• Security: Heavily guarded by the National Guard.
• Near-Zero Operational Cost: With electricity effectively free (state-subsidized), marginal costs approached zero.

But where did the equipment for these military farms come from? A significant portion came from the confiscation of private miners.

Starting in 2020, Sunacrip, in conjunction with the military, launched a series of raids on private mining operations:

• 2020: The National Guard seized 315 Antminer S9 units in Bolívar State.
• 2023: Raided the headquarters of the gang "Tren de Aragua" in Tocorón Prison, seizing a large quantity of mining rigs and weapons.
• 2024: In Maracay, a single operation confiscated over 2,300 Antminer S19J Pro units.

According to intelligence source estimates, between 2020 and 2025, the government may have acquired tens of thousands of mining machines through confiscations from private farms and gang facilities. This equipment was not destroyed but redeployed to CAMIMPEG-controlled facilities.

Based on the known thousands of high-performance miners, combined with output from state-owned farms, this "zombie army" may have produced tens of thousands of Bitcoin over the past several years.

 02 Data Sources and Skepticism Regarding the "600,000 BTC" Rumor

The key question: Is this number credible?

Based on intelligence reports from Chainalysis, TRM Labs, and the investigative agency "Whale Hunting," the circulating estimate is 600,000 to 660,000 BTC. However, it must be emphasized:

This number comes solely from intelligence sources, not verifiable on-chain hard data.

There is no public on-chain evidence supporting this figure.

The Whale Hunting report explicitly states: "This estimate is derived from HUMINT (Human Intelligence) and has not been confirmed by blockchain analysis."

Nonetheless, the report provides a hypothetical breakdown:

Does this rumor hold up logically?

Supporters' arguments:

MicroStrategy Comparison: MicroStrategy (now Strategy) held over 670,000 BTC as of January 2026. A sovereign state theoretically has the capacity to reach a similar scale.

Financial Backing: PDVSA had $21 billion unaccounted for between 2020-2023. If 50% of that was converted to Bitcoin at average prices of the time, it could purchase 300,000-400,000 BTC.

Skeptics' arguments:

• Lack of On-Chain Evidence: If 600,000 BTC truly existed, traces should be found on the blockchain, but no one has been able to point to specific addresses.
• Suspiciously Round Number: The figure 600,000 seems more like an estimate than an actual count and may be significantly overstated.
• Questionable Motive: This rumor may be used for political purposes or market manipulation.

Conclusion: In the absence of concrete blockchain evidence, this remains an unverified rumor.

 03 If the Rumor is True: Who Would Hold the Private Keys?

Assuming this "shadow reserve" does exist, even Maduro's arrest would not mean the U.S. could control it.

The FBI's primary challenge would be: How to prove the existence of these Bitcoins and find the private keys?

Who might hold the private keys?

If this asset exists, intelligence analysts speculate it is unlikely managed by a single account. A multisignature (Multisig) or private key sharding scheme is more probable.

Theoretical private key holders might include:

• Alex Saab: As the regime's financial architect, Saab not only understands the full picture of fund flows but likely holds the crucial seed phrases or knows the physical locations of hardware wallets required for wallet recovery. His return to Venezuela in the December 2023 prisoner swap, exchanged for 10 American prisoners, demonstrates his irreplaceability within the regime.
• Nicolasito (Maduro's son): Named in indictments, he was deeply involved in illegal gold mining and the regime's daily operations, possibly holding a backup of the family's portion of the private keys.
• Cilia Flores (First Lady): Known as the "First Combatant," she holds a high position within the regime's inner circle. She may control physical access to some cold wallets.
• Technocrat Layer: Former Sunacrip technical staff may have been responsible for maintaining the multisig technical infrastructure. While they might not know the complete private keys, their cooperation would be crucial for reconstructing wallet access.

Speculated Crypto Architecture

The most likely architecture is an M-of-N signature scheme (e.g., 3/5 or 5/7). This means signatures from 3 out of 5 core individuals would be required to move the funds.

If Maduro, Flores, and Saab were all under U.S. control, theoretically the U.S. could compel their cooperation to unlock the funds. But reality is far more complex:

• Geographic Dispersion: Cold wallets might be stored in bunkers in Caracas, safes in Russia, or safe houses in Cuba.
• Dead Man's Switch: The possibility of an automatic trigger mechanism cannot be ruled out. If specific actions are not performed for an extended period (e.g., Maduro goes missing), funds might automatically transfer to an irrecoverable address or be sent to other allies.
• Ideological Resistance: Even facing life imprisonment, core individuals holding keys might refuse to cooperate. For them, this is not just wealth, but the final weapon against "American imperialism."

 04 Market Impact: The Rumor Itself is Uncertainty

Even if unverified, this rumor has become a "Sword of Damocles" hanging over the crypto market. 600,000 Bitcoin represents about 3% of BTC's total supply. If real, the impact would be massive.

Three Possible Scenarios

Scenario One: Rumor is False

If thorough investigation by the FBI and blockchain analysis firms ultimately proves this "shadow reserve" does not exist or is severely overestimated, the market might breathe a sigh of relief. This means no potential selling pressure, which is neutral or slightly bullish for price.

Scenario Two: Rumor is True and FBI Gains Control

If this asset exists and the U.S. successfully seizes it, following standard procedure, these Bitcoins would enter judicial freezing, potentially immobilized for years. This effectively locks up a massive supply, reducing circulating volume, which is bullish for price.

This is similar to the 2013 FBI seizure of Silk Road Bitcoins. Approximately 170,000 BTC were frozen and eventually auctioned in batches. However, during the freeze, these coins were effectively removed from circulation, objectively reducing market sell pressure.

Scenario Three: Rumor is True but Private Keys are Lost

This is the most dangerous scenario. If the asset exists but private keys are not under U.S. control, fleeing regime remnants might attempt to sell Bitcoin on OTC markets to fund their escape, triggering panic selling.

When the German government sold just 50,000 BTC in 2024, it caused short-term market volatility. The selling pressure from 600,000 would be catastrophic.

 05 Summary

Maduro's arrest has indeed revealed a glimpse of how the Venezuelan regime used cryptocurrency to evade sanctions.

From the failed Petro experiment to the $21 billion PDVSA-Crypto scandal, to the militarized mining facilities – these are all confirmed facts. However, the rumor of a "600,000 BTC shadow reserve" still lacks concrete evidence.

What we can confirm: Venezuela did use crypto to evade sanctions, PDVSA did have $21 billion go missing, and the regime did confiscate a large number of mining rigs.

What we cannot confirm: Whether it truly accumulated 600,000 BTC, (if it exists) who holds the private keys, and whether these Bitcoins will enter the market.

This indeed raises a pointed question: When decentralized technology is used to evade sanctions, how do we find a balance between freedom and order?

But until more evidence surfaces, the "$60 billion shadow reserve" remains just an unverified rumor.