Odaily Editorial Team Tea Party (December 31)

This is an "informal" column from within the Odaily editorial team. Authors share their immediate thoughts and perspectives on industry news, data, trending events, and their peripheral details; they elaborate on investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses still under testing—these may not be direct wealth codes, but simply the problems themselves; they share observations gained from conversations with industry practitioners; and they share materials that genuinely enhance our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.

This column's content is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily's editorial team members. We do not accept any form of commercial advertising, nor do we constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is merely to broaden perspectives and supplement information sources, not to create consensus. Welcome to join the Odaily community ( Telegram group , X official account ) to exchange ideas, ask questions, and joke around.

Hao Fangzhou

Introduction: I want to do more in the future

The most worthwhile question to discuss regarding the future of prediction markets—how far they can go, how big they can become, how many narratives they can generate, and what they will ultimately replace—is—what topics will be included. Then, the product form, the extent of their derivatives, regulatory attitudes, and the power of capital (recommended reading: "Why Prediction Markets Are Really Not Gambling Platforms" ) will collectively determine their historical significance and scale boundaries.

Try inductive reasoning:

(1) First list : who will be president - polling platform, who will win the game - betting platform, price fluctuations - financial derivatives, entertainment gossip - cultural and emotional echo chamber...

• Listing is for further categorization and benchmarking against existing mature markets.

(2) Further convergence : the boundaries of publicness (e.g., what regional scope, how much impact does the election in country X have on people outside country X, the international impact of regional wars), the ethical line of the financialization of online topics (what can be "gambled on, and why can't it be gambled on"), the future (what time range, how far into the future), whether the probability of the outcome still needs to strictly conform to a definite classification method (reducing ambiguity and manipulation in rulings)...

• Convergence is about defining "what topics are worth listing" and "what topics have the operability to make accurate judgments and are inherently resistant to manipulation," establishing the current ceiling, rather than confusing future tenses or making unrealistic pronouncements.

(3) Finally, diverge : Just randomly say a direction, what's so great about predicting things that humans can decide? PM, can you predict tsunamis and earthquakes? Use the money raised from the opposing side to develop amateur science DeSci.

• Divergence is about breaking down value barriers and then imagining and predicting the ultimate state of the market.

Currently, predictions are not very large and are mostly self-evident within the boundaries of cognition because they lack externalities—the amount of money flowing into the prediction market does not spill over into the event, and the influence and amount of money are far from enough to make external parties intervene to control the outcome.

The next line of thought after "what topics to feature" is: who decides which topics to feature? This leads to → the necessity and extent of centralized intervention, and the balance that rules should strike between maintaining a stable sense of trust and flexibility. Currently, in the early stages, the optimal solution is to first let the "aesthetically-minded hegemon" decide, then iterate in small steps, seeking survival and expansion between the community and the regulators.

P.S. There are too many new assets, which dilutes both buying power and investment research. Compared to 2014, many projects in 2025 are "sell as soon as they're acquired," with investors not even knowing what the projects are for, let alone having the desire to "acquire" them.

Bcxiongdi (X: @bcxiongdi)

Introduction: Primarily engages in on-chain PvP.

Share: Last week, liquidity in the Meme sector improved compared to the previous weeks, and some gold dogs appeared on-chain. For example, Whitewhale even reached 73m, and Thenickshirley, which ignited Musk's political narrative, peaked at 9m. There was also a tweet from Musk interacting with Toly, etc. Many performed quite well. However, currently, on-chain liquidity is still generally low, and it's normal for a few gold dogs to occasionally appear. I personally choose to continue to observe.

WLFI recently launched a new vote to accelerate the use of USD1, allowing users to select relevant assets for betting.

jk (X: @0xHanzo)

Summary: A long-term player who suffered heavy losses this quarter.

Sharing: 1. New Year's resolution: I'm going to learn Vibe coding properly and then create some usable data tools by hand, such as a tool to capture price crashes so that I can quickly open short positions; the main reason for this idea is that I've seen many products on X made with codex or cursor that have actually greatly improved work efficiency.

I recently saw a quote that really resonated with me: Many people say that programmers these days only use Vibe Coding and can't write C or Java anymore , what will happen? But actually, a long time ago, someone asked the same question: Young people these days only know how to write Java and don't understand assembly language or computer principles, what will happen? The truth is, the way we give instructions to the machine has been constantly evolving, from the initial assembly language to programming languages, and now to the natural language of Vibe Coding. If it works, it's good.

2. This week's work mainly focused on writing some annual summary articles: Upon reflection, 2025 was actually a very important year for institutionalization and the formalization of crypto; it wouldn't be an exaggeration to call it the first year of US crypto, but this wasn't reflected in price increases at all ; including the current pullback, we are actually experiencing a period where market capitalization is rising, but prices aren't. This has actually made my long-term holding strategy a bit shaken.

3. Recent regulatory news in the US is so boring… It's all about what Trump says, what Musk says, and the expected trend of interest rate cuts. As a journalist, I still miss last year and the year before, when the SBF trial was full of bombshells, the SEC was suing this exchange today and that exchange tomorrow, the indictments were full of highlights and points of contention, and Trump hadn't taken office yet, so there was so much to look forward to. Of course, as a retail investor, I hope those years never come back.

Asher (X: @Asher_0210)

Profile: Primarily plays interactive games and financial management, occasionally buys memes (but doesn't like to sell them), not good at contract trading but enjoys participating.

Sharing: In addition to continuing to add popular projects every week, our recent focus has been on the prediction market within the BNB Chain ecosystem , aiming to accumulate more points at the lowest possible cost, with the expectation of a major boom in the prediction market sector in the first half of 2026.

In the spot market, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index remains in a state of extreme fear, with mainstream altcoins continuing to dollar-cost average (DCA) on ETH and SOL.

Regarding contracts, PIPPIN made a sharp drop to $0.76 last week before slowly declining, suggesting the uptrend has ended. A short position has been opened at $0.50, with targets at $0.29 and $0.19.

Moni (@mich73692)

Introduction: Keep learning, keep striving.

Share: Are there arbitrage opportunities with USDT? Perhaps. The over-the-counter price of the USDT stablecoin has fallen to around 6.82 RMB, a staggering drop, while the USD price in the foreign exchange market remains at 7.01 RMB, resulting in a negative premium of 2.7%, far exceeding the -2% premium rate at the beginning of the month. As for arbitrage opportunities, "we dare not say, and we dare not ask." Huang Qifan recently signaled that the RMB exchange rate against the USD will gradually appreciate from 7.0 to around 6.0 over the next ten years; we can only speculate.

Precious metals remained a hot topic this week, with gold and silver experiencing significant corrections . Some analysts previously suggested that once precious metal prices began to reverse, market funds would likely flow to Bitcoin and Ethereum, but so far, this trend has not materialized.

Unbeknownst to many, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in negative territory for 17 consecutive days . This indicator is somewhat meaningful, suggesting that the price of Bitcoin in the US market is lower than in the global market, indicating significant selling pressure in North America and that many investors are likely selling off their holdings.

2025 witnessed the dramatic rise and fall of Bitcoin, the rapid ups and downs were truly thrilling. This year is finally coming to an end, and I will miss it.

Suzz (X: @uu01194636)

Brief introduction: Still on duty on New Year's Eve

Share: The CME "network outage" on November 29th was analyzed by the market as a result of short sellers facing liquidation pressure, causing the exchange to "crash." While the truth of the conspiracy theory is hard to discern, I did take a closer look at the analysis of data center high availability that day, unfortunately missing out on this wave of silver price increases. Going forward, I need to be more sensitive to opportunities arising from price movements.

We are currently tracking the IPO progress of Zhipu AI (expected January 8th). Based on Peter Lynch's investment philosophy, we have extensively utilized the GLM4.7 model. From the perspectives of product experience and cost-effectiveness, its practical application capabilities are outstanding, and considering the current market valuation, it still has potential. We plan to participate deeply when it officially launches early next year, as a core holding in the AI sector.

Dingdang (X: @XiaMiPP)

Introduction: Pure "leeks" (a metaphor for being exploited or taken advantage of).

Sharing: I've recently given up on trading and am spending more time watching and learning.

This week's surge in silver prices has been the focus of the market. Many online commentators are saying that China is changing its silver export policy from a quota system to a "one-order-one-approval" system, but it seems to be about strengthening the review process and controlling the flow of goods. The real reason for this surge is the short squeeze triggered by an options trader's sell-off.

I recently came across a post from the former head of commodities at Bridgewater Associates sharing his silver trading strategy. The gist was: We need to remain calm now. Short-term factors include tax-driven selling, a rebounding dollar, and margin pressures. However, he believes he will continue to increase holdings on pullbacks . While the talk of copper substitution is a bit alarming, he argues that it would take at least four years to replace half of the solar energy capacity, and therefore believes silver still has room for further appreciation.

Precious metals are rising in turn, but the crypto market is incredibly quiet. Looking at Bitcoin's daily chart, it feels like it's approaching a turning point. Hopefully, the market will be better for us next year.

golem(X:@web3_golem)

Introduction: Golem's ingenious ideas

Content: Recently, leading cryptocurrency exchanges have been mimicking Web2 internet products by releasing 2025 year-end reviews for their users. While these summaries are generally just for fun, some data still piqued my curiosity. For example, on Binance, my peak annual asset value was $3,363, still putting me ahead of 88% of holders. On OKX, however, having annual assets exceeding $60,000 puts you ahead of 95% of users.

The reason this sounds so shocking is that, in my previous understanding, a few thousand dollars wouldn't be much money for anyone in the crypto world. You'd have to keep that amount of assets a secret from your friends before even opening an exchange, or you'd be laughed at. Tens of thousands of dollars is certainly small change, but it's not enough to be in the top 5%.

Of course, these data may also be fake, because considering the statistical methods, the sample may include a large number of accounts that have not logged in for a long time, have zero balance, or have only opened an account but have not traded. If these "zeros" are included, the percentile of each person will be pulled up.

But what if it's true? That would mean 2025 is indeed a difficult year. We've been misled by a few top bloggers on social media, KOLs who claim to make or lose hundreds of thousands of dollars at the drop of a hat. They've created a rich illusion in the crypto world, which, when applied to individuals, creates a feeling of being the only one poor while everyone else is rich, making us even more hesitant to confront them on social media. Just like the data shows that less than 20% of accounts on Polymarket are profitable, yet social media is full of prophetic stories of people making a fortune.

Those self-proclaimed "always-profitable bloggers" and top accounts on social media are merely "typical user" samples favored by algorithms and human nature; they do not represent the majority. From an investment perspective, if we use the extreme results of a minority to measure our investments and decisions, we may make more dangerous choices in the face of market fluctuations. The unhealthy mentality of feeling like we've accomplished nothing if we don't earn A7 or A8 should have been discarded long ago.

Speaking of prediction markets, I plan to open two more Polymarket accounts in the new year, mainly to boost trading volume to obtain airdrops. Although there are no transaction fees associated with boosting trading volume on Polymarket, considering the shallow order book in prediction markets and the large bid-ask spreads in some pools, achieving zero losses seems like a complicated matter. Therefore, I think adding two accounts is already quite a hassle for now.

Azuma (X: @azuma_eth)

Introduction: Dishes, in more learning

Sharing: I've looked at the recent discussions about USDT discounts and USDC premiums, specifically the discount of USDT relative to the official USD/CNY exchange rate in the OTC market, and the premium of USDC relative to USDT.

The first one is easier to explain. Essentially, the demand for USDT has weakened along the USDT-CNY path. This is due to two reasons: first, the native crypto market is weak, leading to a decrease in demand for USDT; second, the CNY is appreciating, and most Chinese users lack the capability to execute the USDT-USD-CNY route, relying instead on CEX OTC to directly sell USDT, thus creating a relative discount.

The second point, which I'm currently considering, is related to the different application scenarios for USDT and USDC. For a long time, everyone has been familiar with the positive premium of USDT over USDC. This is because USDT is the primary medium for market transactions, while USDC is more geared towards DeFi and wealth management, and is relatively more stable in terms of investment returns. During strong economic cycles, trading demand is high, naturally leading to higher demand for USDT. However, in the current market environment, most users are simply looking for investment returns higher than government bonds, so ultimately, the market determines the market. Whether the difference between the USDT-USD and USDC-USD conversion paths will have an impact remains to be seen; further discussion is welcome.

Wenser (@wenser2010)

Profile: Tea-adding boy, encrypted soy sauce party member, media observer.

Sharing: 1. My personal annual investment summary: I lost approximately 80%, the worst year since I entered the investment world, even surpassing my previous experience with NFTs. The main reasons for the losses were high-leverage contracts (Binance account crashed, OKX -50%), buying low but not selling high with Meme coin, and by the time I sold, it had already fallen below my cost price, forcing me to either cut my losses or lose everything. Besides these, I also dabbled in prediction markets and US stock tokenization this year (invitation link: https://msx.com/?code=Wszm85 ) Overall, I broke even, barely breaking even. The losses were due to always hoping for a dramatic reversal and letting subjective emotions cloud my judgment, causing me to lose sight of the objective reality of the betting events. The lessons learned from the October 11th crash were extremely painful, compounded by the fact that I was probably infected with H1N1 at the time, making it a double blow to my physical and mental health. 2025 will be a mainstream year for the crypto industry, but for me personally, it will be a very marginal year. There will be very few new investors/new entrants. Those who remain will either engage in a speculative frenzy and suffer losses, or be exploited and become the exit liquidity for project teams/unregulated players. Of course, the biggest lesson is still about action. There will be many great opportunities this year, but they won't be the kind of universally celebrated, all-encompassing opportunities. Instead, you'll need to be prepared (such as sufficient capital, quick reflexes, KYC, multiple accounts, etc.). I suggest everyone reasonably assess the ROI before looking for their own opportunities.

2. My goals for 2026 are as follows: 1) Increase the frequency of trading in US stock tokenization, aiming to double the capital size of this position; 2) Participate deeply in market prediction, especially in industry changes. I've written a lot about this before, and I still maintain my judgment that the market size of prediction has the potential to reach trillions in 5-8 years (or even earlier), representing 8-10 times the current size; 3) Use contracts moderately, avoid getting carried away with all-in trades, and implement timely stop-loss and take-profit orders to avoid situations like "buying low - not selling high - cutting losses and leaving the market"; 4) Posting is essential. Aside from the token airdrops from project teams, posting is the best way to expand one's network and influence through high-quality content, bar none. I posted too few tweets in 2025; I aim to post 200 in 2026.

3. The recent acquisition of Manus by Meta for $2 billion (some reports say $2.5 billion) has been big news in the AI world. I shared my thoughts on this on social media. However, considering many AI product startups on platforms like Jike, I think the common challenge for AI startups and crypto startups is ensuring their products/solutions/services generate revenue (cash flow) from day one. This requires precise target audience positioning, functional positioning, and pricing, as well as serving real needs. Therefore, I believe crypto payments (PayFi) are a good fit. Coupled with the profitability opportunities of DeFi, 2026 will be a big year for payments, especially with Trip.com, the overseas version of Ctrip, also opening up stablecoin payments, which is a clear signal. I look forward to its development next year.

I'd also like to recommend my year-end book , "2026, Survive: A Bear Market Survival and Counterattack Handbook for Crypto Enthusiasts." By the way, it seems I've always written bear market survival guides; I feel completely lost in bull markets.