Odaily Editorial Team Tea Party (December 24)

This is an "informal" column from within the Odaily editorial team. Authors share their immediate thoughts and perspectives on industry news, data, trending events, and their peripheral details; they elaborate on investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses still under testing—these may not be direct wealth codes, but simply the problems themselves; they share observations gained from conversations with industry practitioners; and they share materials that genuinely enhance our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.

This column's content is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily's editorial team members. We do not accept any form of commercial advertising, nor do we constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is merely to broaden perspectives and supplement information sources, not to create consensus. Welcome to join the Odaily community ( Telegram group , X official account ) to exchange ideas, ask questions, and joke around.

Nan Zhi (X: @Assassin_Malvo)

Synopsis: Meme Diamond Hand, reborn after suffering a major setback.

content:

1. Still focused on market prediction, Polymarket's copy trading showed no growth after two weeks;
2. The "Smart Money vs. Powerful Social Media AI" benchmark by Nanzhi is now online ( https://www.omnioracle.fun/human-vs-ai-table ). Grok has demonstrated exceptional predictive capabilities with an accuracy rate of 85%—hitting 11 out of 13 questions correctly.
3. In reality, the accuracy rate of "smart money" is not low (77%), but the final net asset value curve is still declining, indicating that there is some problem with the way the funds are placed. This is still under investigation.
4. I created an Opinion & Polymarket arbitrage dashboard ( https://www.omnioracle.fun/opinion-arbitrage ) and found that 99% of the Opinion arbitrage is manipulated. The top 20 trading volume questions are basically questions that no one in other prediction markets asks, which seems to facilitate manipulation by accounts that control the market and inflate their trading volume.

ark

Summary: Recently, a new high-consumption scenario has emerged, slightly increasing my desire to make money.

Content: Let's talk about Web3 in Hong Kong.

Last Wednesday, I went to HashKey for its IPO (my 7th trip to Hong Kong this year). I intended to find a BTC ATM in Central to make video footage for my colleague, but I was completely misled by expired information on Google Maps and Xiaohongshu. This made me increasingly skeptical of the concept. BTC + ATM—just listen to those two words! It's like a fish leaving a bicycle, or Northeast China losing Jerusalem. All the hard-won evolutionary carriers of value and the mobilization of products and services have been reduced to a primitive state.

I chatted with some local friends about their cryptocurrency buying preferences—in terms of convenience and security, brokerages are the best; compliant CEXs have high account opening thresholds and significant operational friction (this is also the case with traditional financial services in Hong Kong), so they use them less; money changers and other OTC channels have been squeezed out by compliance, resulting in high risk and poor exchange rates (even worse than the two-way spread in foreign exchange settlement). Furthermore, aside from a very small number of "qualified investors" and professional investors, they basically don't consider BTC or ETH (a preference for investing in Central but not Cyberport); they don't engage much in leverage (the gambling nature and internet penetration of the C-end market are still far behind other Asian markets); and they generally don't engage in operations other than spot trading, such as on-chain interactions, prediction markets, and other Web3 native behaviors.

Other industry professionals have quite a few complaints about Hong Kong compliance firms, ranging from user experience and recruitment to internal work environment and external relations. Surprisingly, one of their few redeeming qualities is customer service – and I must say, their answers are incredibly professional.

As for policies, they're mostly all talk and no action. After all, people are needed to settle down, but Hong Kong's supply of highly skilled workers is already saturated and overflowing, with local jobs being absorbed by local workers themselves. In practice, for those who have moved to Hong Kong, "for their children" is often more important than personal growth, and educational arbitrage is the biggest motivation for going to Hong Kong.

Overall, it seems difficult; we haven't seen any triggers for the development of Web3 in Hong Kong yet.

P.S. Research reports should stop calling market predictions "collective intelligence." Throughout human history, groups have never been intelligent; they are simply more efficient and reflexive financial behaviors.

Azuma (X: @azuma_eth)

Introduction: Dishes, in more learning

Content: This week I've been focusing on two things: the prediction market, which currently seems to have the greatest wealth effect, and the controversies surrounding the Aave incident.

First, let's talk about prediction markets. Various second- and third-tier platforms are constantly emerging, but frankly, I'm not optimistic about them. The core reason is the construction of liquidity . The market-making method in prediction markets is completely different from DEXs and Perp DEXs. Due to the different nature of the assets (yes or no, one side will always go to zero), the different price fluctuation methods (instantaneous extreme fluctuations), and the different trading counterparties (all insiders), market makers are naturally at a disadvantage, and retail investors entering the market are basically wasting their time .

Previous reports indicated that Polymarket and Kalshi had poured tens of millions of dollars into liquidity incentives. This is a core advantage of established players who have already captured user mindshare and completed massive funding rounds. How much resources do new platforms have to compete with them? While some new platforms may have powerful backers and generate massive amounts of cryptocurrency, it's clear that not every one of them does.

Let me reorganize my thoughts, and I will write a more detailed article on this topic later.

Then there's the controversy between Aave Labs and the DAO. The current situation is somewhat awkward. Aave Labs, having accumulated a considerable amount of cryptocurrency over the years, likely wants more revenue streams and is therefore taking a hard line. The DAO, on the other hand, doesn't want to lose money, but it can't afford to push Aave Labs too far, as it still relies on them for its operations. What started as a private dispute is now escalating to the point where neighbors and relatives, for whatever reason, are all getting involved. If no one backs down, things will get complicated. The vote results will be available in the next couple of days; let's see how it develops.

Moni (X: @mich73692)

Introduction: Keep learning, keep striving.

Content: Earlier this week, Bitcoin's "dead cat bounce" briefly broke through $90,000, but the upward trend failed to hold and prices quickly fell again. During the market downturn in November, investors bought approximately 976,000 Bitcoins between $84,000 and $85,600, so the key support level in the near term may be around $84,000 . My personal judgment is that Bitcoin (or the entire crypto market) will remain sluggish for most of 2026, until the end of 2026, because Trump will be running for the midterm elections next November, at which time he may take some measures to boost the market and gain support.

There's been a lot of discussion and analysis about market predictions lately, so I won't go into detail. Here's a brief overview of some hot prediction events for 2026: the World Cup, the Super Bowl, the NBA All-Star Game, Dota 2, the Asian Games, the Winter Olympics, and the Federal Reserve Chairman. Finally, I wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year in advance! Here's a little bonus: the Epstein case photos on the U.S. Department of Justice website are publicly available, containing more information than what's been disclosed by the media, and are available for download. However, please do not distribute them, not even to close friends (Odaily note: sending obscene messages to friends will be illegal starting January 1st next year ).

golem(X:@web3_golem):

Introduction: Golem's ingenious ideas

Content: I recently had a brilliant idea about how to use Polymarket, and I hope to discuss it with everyone.

While polymarkets can predict the truth to some extent, the human brain actually analyzes the event and makes judgments on the probabilities of various outcomes as soon as the event occurs. Polymarkets simply do not have this reaction speed. This is due to factors such as the time it takes for a polymarket to create and review a new predicted event, the time for group reaction, and operational delays.

This resulted in a period where the probability of an event's outcome on Polymarket was lower than the probability of the group's judgment; I call this a pricing error phase .

For example, suppose the event is to predict "the highest-grossing US-listed internet company in 2025," and the result is based on the financial reports of listed companies. The result might include dozens of companies such as Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Netflix. However, it's clear that the ultimate winner will likely be among Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft; we don't even need to look at the data to know that their probability is significantly higher than other companies. We can profit simply by placing bets on these companies when the prediction is incorrectly priced on Polymarket and selling when the price is correct, without waiting for the final result.

Based on the above explanation, you can see that the key to this strategy is timely monitoring and transaction speed , and it seems to be profitable at present.

Wenser (@wenser2010)

Profile: Tea-adding boy, encrypted soy sauce party member, media observer.

Content: 1. Continuing from the previous discussion about "crypto traders profiting from the stock market," the recent hacking of Kuaishou livestreaming is a prime example. Those in the crypto world who follow the internet industry could easily use the "News Trading" approach to short Kuaishou's US stock at high leverage on MSX.com and xStocks . For example, if a crypto project experiences a technical vulnerability, such as a compromised website front-end or even a compromised swap function, and the corresponding token is shorted, I personally believe that the emergence of stock tokenization is actually beneficial to crypto enthusiasts, rather than, as Alliance DAO founder Qwqiao previously stated, that the stock market, including US stocks, is superior to cryptocurrencies. I recommend reading "Cryptocurrency and Stock Market Compass."

2. Prediction markets have become another hot trend, but the majority of liquidity remains on Polymarket (Kalshi's KYC has impacted user growth, hence its slightly lower valuation compared to PM), similar to the L1, L2, GameFi, NFT, and AI concepts of the past. However, unlike before, the FDV betting events on Polymarket for crypto projects have gradually become a way for project teams or market makers to hedge risks. Retail investors should either participate or stay away.

3. Strategy is gradually entering the batting zone. If you don't trade US stocks, you can buy some low-leverage long positions on MSX.com. For those who haven't tried stock tokenization before, you can use my link ( https://msx.com/?code=Wszm85 ). Recommended reading: "MSTR: Buy the Dip or Wait and See?"