After making $4 million in profits, his assets vanished to zero: The mystery behind the downfall of Polymarket's "God of Sports Prediction."

Original article by Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

Author｜Wenser ( @wenser2010 )

Polymarket's prediction game has always been a feast for a few and a game for the majority. Similar to the contract market, it is also full of "black swan reversals," especially in sports upsets.

Today's story is about the downfall of Mayuravarma, a trader once hailed as the "God of Sports Prediction." This seasoned predictor, whose online persona resembled that of someone from the Indian caste system, once amplified his initial $5,000 investment to $3.8 million in just one month—a staggering 760-fold return—and briefly ranked sixth on the list of most profitable sports betting traders. However, every cloud has a silver lining, and within a week, his assets were nearly wiped out.

Mayuravarma's experience once again proves that the so-called "end-of-the-week strategy" is unreliable on Polymarket. Sports betting events and similar events often see dramatic reversals at the last minute—you're betting not just on that "certain profit," but on your entire principal.

Next, let's review the process of the collapse of this prophetic myth.

Reborn as a Nobleman from India: A Journey Through the Prediction Market Starting with League of Legends Matches

Mayuravarma began his prediction market journey with the League of Legends World Championship. According to his homepage, he placed 9 bets during the LOL Season 15 World Championship, with a record of 6 wins and 3 losses, a win rate of approximately 67%. Ultimately, his total losses from LOL betting amounted to approximately $20,000, while his profits were approximately $790,000, including:

• In the AL vs T1 match, a bet of $150,000 was placed, and $162,500 was won;
• In the KT vs. T1 finals, he bet $1.1 million and ultimately won nearly $600,000.

Personal homepage information

From esports to American professional sports leagues: Mayuravarma's path to godhood

Mayuravarma successfully earned a net profit of approximately $770,000 by leveraging the annual world-class esports event. After briefly betting on three League of Legends (LOL) matches, he embarked on his "path to becoming a sports prediction master," expanding his betting scope from LOL esports events to renowned American professional leagues and various sports events—CFB (College Football League), NHL (National Hockey League), NBA (National Basketball Association), and NFL (National Football League), among others.

Initially, Mayuravarma's betting was almost a guaranteed win: in 5 CFB games and 2 NHL games, she achieved returns of around 30% to 82% through multiple bets, with her biggest single profit reaching $360,000.

This also reveals Mayuravarma's betting style: she prefers pre-market betting, with bets ranging from thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars, and rarely sells during the trading session. This is both the reason she was able to gradually roll over her small bets to achieve big results in the early stages, and the foreshadowing of her later all-in bets in an attempt to turn the tide in an NHL game, which ultimately backfired.

Subsequently, after adding NFL betting, its winning percentage plummeted from high to low: in 5 NFL games, its winning percentage dropped from 100% when betting on CFB games to around 40%.

There are two more dramatic details worth elaborating on:

Firstly, in an early NHL game, Wild vs. Rangers, Mayuravarma bet on Rangers to win with odds of 57:43, ultimately losing $275,000. In a subsequent NHL game, she again bet on Wild's opponent, Devils, because of their higher odds of winning, turning a stake of less than $120,000 into a profit of $86,000, demonstrating the randomness of the prediction market.

Secondly, in the NHL game between Wild and Penguins on November 22, he bet $1 million on Penguins to win. Wild ultimately upset Penguins 5-0, and he lost his $1 million bet.

Subsequently, Mayuravarma began betting on NBA games. In two games, she correctly predicted the Warriors' victory over the Lakers, earning nearly $100,000 per game, with a win rate of 50%.

The subsequent betting events seemed somewhat uneventful, but the process itself was remarkably smooth for Mayuravarma. He maintained a high overall win rate in LOL, NHL, and NBA games. His betting interface also reveals another betting style: he tends to bet on teams with a higher pre-match probability of winning and stronger overall performance, rather than hoping for an upset. This reflects Mayuravarma's deep understanding and awareness of various sports events, providing a certain degree of assurance for his continued profitability, but also leaving room for potential upsets.

After all, as the saying goes in football and other sports, "the ball is round, anything can happen." It could be an own goal, a heroic solo effort, or even an unintentional mistake by the referee. In short, sports are full of possibilities, and every unexpected outcome is a high-stakes gamble for the bettors, requiring them to risk their hard-earned money.

The potential impact of predicting markets: when money becomes a paper number

With each tournament bet, Mayuravarma's betting amounts steadily increased, from an initial $2,000 to $30,000 to $50,000, and later, he would bet $100,000 at a time. In less than a month, he went from a "prediction market newbie" to a "betting whale" in the eyes of Polymarket market players.

Based on the following settlement records, Mayuravarma in this phase falls within the "normal distribution interval":

• In 24 matches, his win rate remained at 50%, with 12 matches resulting in successful bets and the rest in unsuccessful bets.
• In the 12 matches where bets failed, he invested a total of approximately $840,000, all of which he lost.
• In 12 winning bets, his cumulative profit was approximately $1.64 million, with a profit/loss ratio close to 2, meaning that the profit was approximately 1.95 times the loss.
• The two largest losses both came from NBA games, one for $102,600 and the other for $102,000;
• The biggest profit came from an NHL game between Bruins and Senators, where an investment of $992,000 yielded a profit of over $607,000.

Overall, Mayuravarma's betting results during this period were more wins than losses. Particularly noteworthy was her timely decision to cut her losses in the NBA game Jazz vs. Trail Blazers, where she invested $20,000 but only lost less than $300 before exiting the game, avoiding total financial ruin.

Mayuravarma betting event results log (time from earliest to latest, from bottom to top)

In subsequent betting rounds, Mayuravarma seemed to have rediscovered the knack for market prediction, returning to his "unbeatable" form: out of 12 bets, he lost only 3, winning the rest. It was during this phase that he reached his peak.

In the CFB match between Houston and UCF, with a betting amount of $745,000, he ultimately won a profit of $687,200, a profit rate of 92.25%, which is also the largest profit in his account to date, ranking first in 108 betting actions.

However, just like the crypto market where "a pullback is inevitable after a new high", Mayuravarma, who had experienced a personal high, ushered in his darkest moment: in the next 10 games (11 games in total including the previous one), it was as if his good luck had run out, and he suffered a painful "10-game losing streak", accumulating a loss of up to $2.05 million.

Most of Mayuravarma's losses during this period (8 out of 11) were in NHL hockey games, which have an upset rate of about 30%, the highest among the four major professional leagues in the United States, far exceeding those of the NBA, MLB, and NFL. This may have laid the groundwork for his eventual "one wrong move, and the whole game is lost" outcome.

"The devastating 11-game losing streak"

How a gambler is made: When bettors are no longer satisfied with small bets

Perhaps just like fengdubiying who only bet on LOL esports events and eventually made millions of dollars through skill and luck, after experiencing a painful losing streak, LOL esports events also became Mayuravarma's "lucky charm".

After making a profit of $600,000 by betting correctly that "T1 will win the LOL S15 World Championship", Mayuravarma has found his "lucky streak" again, and his overall performance has finally shaken off his bad luck and started to have both wins and losses.

But by this time, he had probably already gotten used to betting "like numbers," and his betting funds were no longer limited to the previous $100,000 level. Instead, they increased to $300,000 to $500,000, and he even dared to bet $1 million with a profit rate of around 30%.

When a trader known for his "prudent and conservative approach, only betting on strong teams" changes his previously cautious trading attitude, he is undoubtedly influenced to some extent by the complex market environment and his obsession with "only wanting to win," and the outcome is obvious.

Transaction records (in top order from morning to night)

Mayuravarma's "Royal Path" Ends in One Month: A Month of Ascension, a Week of Fall.

On November 14, thanks to a month of skillful maneuvering, Mayuravarma's personal earnings skyrocketed from an initial $7,000 to nearly $3.9 million.

Mayuravarma account peak profit data

Just a week later, Mayuravarma suffered consecutive heavy defeats in NHL and CFB games, bringing her earnings close to zero.

• In the CFB match between Texas State and Southern Miss, he wagered a whopping $1.2 million on Southern Miss to win, ultimately losing all of his stake.
• In the NHL game between Capitals and Canadarens, he went all in again, betting $1.2 million on Canadarens, who had a higher pre-match winning percentage. However, he failed to cut his losses in time and lost all of the $1.2 million. Within a week, his personal profit and loss data showed a turnaround from profit to loss of $3.8 million.

It was also on Saturday, November 22, that Mayuravarma, after experiencing a rollercoaster of emotions—"making a fortune of over 3.8 million followed by a profit wipeout"—deleted her X platform account in a fit of anger.

Subsequently, perhaps unwilling to become a laughing stock on Polymarket, Mayuravarma transferred another $1 million to her personal account and bet on various sports events again, but the final result was still more losses than wins.

As of the time of writing (November 26), Mayuravarma's personal account on Polymarket showed a cumulative loss of $885,000, with current open positions of approximately $278,500. This means that she has not only given back all her previous betting profits, but has also lost hundreds of thousands of dollars of her principal.

To some extent, in sports betting on the outcome of a match, the "one wins, the other loses" prediction market isn't much different from the "either rise or fall" futures market. With limited choices, the prediction market, seemingly offering fewer options, can be more brutal than the leveraged futures market. Many people struggle to implement timely stop-loss orders in futures trading, instead choosing to wait for the outcome or hoping for a surprise upset as the event nears its end. In the end, players lose not only their high hopes but also their hard-earned capital.

Under the automatic settlement mechanism at the end of the event, the "winner-takes-all" dynamic in the prediction market appears even more brutal.

Does ID determine destiny? From fengdubiying to "Creator of the Peacock Dynasty"

Perhaps market prediction always carries a touch of mysticism—even a trader's ID seems like a mysterious spell, subtly influencing their profit and loss trajectory. Like fengdubiying, whom we interviewed, the ID Mayuravarma itself is a story. (Recommended reading : Odaily Interview with "Polymarket's First Person in the Chinese Region": A 25-Day Journey to 225x Returns )

In Sanskrit, the prototype of Mayura is "मयूर" (Mayūra), meaning "peacock," which symbolizes holiness and beauty in Indian culture. Varma is common in South Asian surnames, derived from the Sanskrit "वर्मन्" (Varman), meaning "protector" or "armor," and is often associated with the nobility or warrior class. In addition, the suffix Varma is common in the noble surnames of Kerala, India, implying the role of protector in the caste system.

Furthermore, as mentioned in the profile of Mayuravarma Polymarket, this ID is associated with Mayurasharma, the founder of the Kadamba dynasty in India, which used the peacock as its symbol and ruled over what is now the state of Karnataka in India. The latter's name means "protector of the peacock." South Indian inscriptions indicate that his name reflects a combination of Kshatriya (warrior class) and nature worship.

Just like the "Mauryan Empire" that disappeared into the annals of history, Mayuravarma is merely a "trading footnote" amidst the booming development of the prediction market.

It is foreseeable that legendary figures like him, who suddenly become rich, are still eager to make their mark in Polymarket's betting market, while there are many traders like him who have fallen from grace and lost everything. Like "Brother Machi" Huang Licheng, who is currently experiencing repeated failures in the futures market, Mayuravarma is not the first, nor will he be the last.