What is long-termism? Old Cat and his philosophy of never selling.

In the ever-changing world of crypto, some chase trends, some shout slogans, while others choose to be believers in time. Old Cat is such a legendary figure.

As one of the earliest evangelists in the industry, he has weathered four bull and bear market cycles, evolving from an early core member of an exchange to a shrewd venture capitalist, and now back to the game as a product founder. His journey is itself a condensed history of the industry's development.

In this in-depth interview with OKX's "Friends," we had the privilege of spending an hour and a half with this "veteran OG." With his characteristic clarity and candor, he shared his profound insights into market cycles, asset value, philosophy of life, and even personal health without reservation.

Why did he assert that "Bitcoin's four-year cycle is dead"? And why did he compare Bitcoin to "the English of the digital world"? What kind of decade-long journey lies behind his creation of the new product "Anchpor"? Most importantly, what kind of trading philosophy does his counterintuitive statement, "Buying Bitcoin is the only way to truly realize profits," encapsulate?

This is not just an interview, but a masterclass on investment, risk, and life. The purpose of this article is not to recount every detail, but to attempt to answer a more difficult question:

Why would someone who has experienced four bull and bear markets develop "never sell" as their worldview? And what exactly does "long-termism" mean to them?

This is part of the OKX friends interview series. This episode's guest is Lao Mao (@Imlaomao), and the interviewer is Mercy (@Mercy_okx).

I. The Core of Investing – Starting with a "Life-Threatening" Surgery

The key takeaway: "I believe in the saying 'He who does not plan for the future will have trouble in the present.' Having surgery is to mitigate long-term risks, which aligns with my long-term investment philosophy. My long-term holding strategy is essentially about filtering out potential operational errors during short-term fluctuations, which simplifies my entire investment structure."

Mercy: Hi Cat Bro, I understand you underwent a major cervical spine surgery and have been sharing more insights about life since then. Is there any connection between this discipline towards your body and life and your consistently emphasized "long-term holding" strategy?

Old Cat: The surgery was just a minor episode in my life, although it felt like a huge deal at the time.

My surgery involved cutting open all five cervical vertebrae from behind and replacing them with titanium alloy, a procedure with a risk level comparable to heart bypass surgery.

At the time, I considered many contingency plans and even made arrangements for my funeral, because life is unpredictable. But I still decided to do it, because if I didn't, my future life would be in a very fragile state, with a low quality of life and enormous mental stress, which is unacceptable for someone as optimistic as me.

I chose to accept the immediate risks of the surgery in order to avoid greater, long-term risks in the future. This aligns with my belief:

"He who does not plan for the future will have trouble in the present." Rather than facing risks head-on in the future, it's better to eliminate them in advance. This aligns perfectly with my investment philosophy.

My "long-term holding" strategy is essentially designed to filter out the risks of making mistakes due to frequent trading during short-term fluctuations. Think about it: long-term holding only requires making one right choice—choosing the right investment instrument. Short-term trading, on the other hand, requires constantly making choices. Which is simpler? I, of course, choose the simplest.

Therefore, both my decision to undergo surgery and my investment philosophy stem from my consistent core logic: simplification and a long-term perspective.

Mercy: You've gone from exchanges to venture capital, and now you're founding your own product. How did you develop this cross-disciplinary, essence-focused mindset?

Old Cat: You've set the bar a bit too high. Actually, everyone's choices are a natural progression.

There's a saying that everyone lives the life they most want to live because every choice is their own. I've always believed that success requires deep, fundamental thinking, plus a bit of luck. I'm never shy about talking about luck; I've always felt that I've been blessed with good fortune.

How can you tell if someone relies on luck? It's simple: do a thought experiment. Put yourself on a higher level. Given your current state and understanding, could you reach where you are today again?

If you feel it's uncertain, then it's mostly a matter of luck.

Of course, luck alone isn't enough; hard work is essential. During Yunbi's busiest years (2014-2017), it was common for me to work overtime until 3 or 4 AM every day. Sometimes I would finish work at 2 AM and still feel unsatisfied, wanting to write another article for the WeChat official account. Therefore, you must do what you are supposed to do, face the challenges, and then accept the rest of your fate.

II. Is the Cycle Dead, and Fiat Currency Becoming Worthless? — Redefining the Macro Narrative

The key takeaway: "What drives Bitcoin's rise is not just the US dollar, but the gradual entry of various global funds, or more directly, the process of 'devaluation' of global fiat currencies. As long as its value is not disproven, the long-term upward trend is very certain."

Mercy: Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle is dead, and future cycles will be determined by dollar liquidity. What's your opinion on this?

Old Cat: I agree with the point that "the cycle theory has ended." I've also written articles arguing that this cycle will not continue.

The fundamental reason lies in the essential change in the supply and demand relationship. Why was it a four-year cycle before? Because the supply (production) of Bitcoin halves every four years, and with demand remaining constant or increasing, the price naturally rises.

But now, after multiple halvings, the daily new production of Bitcoin is negligible compared to the vast amount of global capital.

Therefore, I believe that what is driving the price of Bitcoin up now is not just the US dollar, but the gradual influx of various funds from around the world.

To put it more directly, it is the process of global fiat currencies becoming "worthless".

This process will gradually attract people seeking to preserve their assets. Of course, there will be fluctuations; smart money will come in first, make profits, and sell to less intelligent money, then Wall Street will enter...

However, as long as Bitcoin's user base and consensus continue to grow exponentially and steadily, and as long as its core value is not disproven, then I am very certain that its long-term upward trend will continue.

Mercy: You mentioned the "collapse of the fiat currency system." Do you think this will happen within ten years? What does it mean for the crypto industry?

Old Cat: Predicting the next ten years is too difficult. I don't think fiat currency will completely disappear within ten years. But "fiat currency collapse" is not a future event, but an ongoing phenomenon.

This process began when the Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1971 and has continued ever since.

If you look at the curves of currency issuance in various countries around the world, you'll see that the value of fiat currencies has been constantly depreciating. This is essentially a structural asset transfer, using inflation to move assets from ordinary people who have no concept of assets to a minority.

This process is happening in every country, only the speed at which things get worse differs.

During my years in Australia, the price of a cup of coffee doubled, rising from 3 Australian dollars to 5 or 6 Australian dollars. Therefore, my firm commitment to cryptocurrency stems from seeing it as an opportunity to hedge against fiat currency devaluation.

As for when fiat currency will "completely" collapse, we can't control that; we just need to know that it's happening.

Mercy: A basic question: Why can cryptocurrencies (such as Bitcoin) fight inflation and not depreciate like fiat currencies?

Old Cat: This is a very complicated question, and I will only give a brief answer here.

First of all, it is incorrect to say that “cryptocurrencies” do not depreciate. Apart from Bitcoin, the issuance of thousands of other cryptocurrencies is itself a form of inflation.

However, Bitcoin, due to its fixed total supply and deflationary model designed by Satoshi Ben, as well as the strong consensus formed over more than a decade, has the ability to combat fiat currency inflation.

This may have started as a utopian idea, but it has now become a reality.

If I were to deposit $10 million in a bank right now, I would panic, because I know that its actual purchasing power might only be worth $9.5 million next year, and $9 million the year after, even though the numbers haven't changed.

However, when I switch to Bitcoin, its inherent appreciation becomes an effective way to hedge against fiat currency devaluation. Therefore, it's not that cryptocurrencies won't depreciate, but rather that Bitcoin, as an asset with the strongest consensus, possesses a powerful function in combating inflation.

III. Bitcoin: The "English" of the Digital World

Key takeaway: "Bitcoin is the English word for digital currency. The likelihood of it being replaced will only decrease over time. Therefore, I will not hold a large position in other assets."

Mercy: Compared to traditional assets such as real estate and stocks, how do Bitcoin differ in its nature, performance, and risks?

Old Cat: If you look at the data from the past ten years, the answer is obvious. Bitcoin's growth has been phenomenal, surpassing almost all other asset classes that we have access to. Of course, this isn't fair to other assets, because I'm a HODLer who has held them for over ten years.

Bitcoin’s biggest risk is precisely its biggest characteristic – volatility.

It is this enormous volatility that wipes out countless people who tried to get rich quick by leveraging, even those with low leverage of two or three times.

Many of the early Bitcoin holders I know who held four-figure sums in the early days are now unable to withdraw any of their Bitcoin because of leveraged trading.

There is another hidden risk, which I call the "risk of being restless" .

Many people keep their Bitcoin in cold wallets, but they can't stand the "loneliness" and always want to use it as collateral to earn some interest or participate in some financial project.

The result was a complete loss, followed by appearances in various rights protection groups. You already hold the asset with the largest increase over the past decade, why take these unnecessary risks?

Therefore, for ordinary traders, there are two real risks: first, you choose a bunch of crypto assets but ultimately don't choose Bitcoin; second, you never hold Bitcoin at all. Everything else is irrelevant in the long run.

Mercy: You are known as a "Bitcoin maximalist," how do you define the value of Bitcoin?

Old Cat: I dare not wear this hat lightly, because I also went around in circles. I was very optimistic about blockchain technology, but I was "educated" by reality many times and paid a lot of tuition fees before finally giving up those "nonsense".

It's difficult for me to offer any new insights into the value of Bitcoin now, because there are more people who can talk and write about it than I can.

But I have a somewhat inappropriate analogy in mind that I'd like to share: English is currently the world's primary language of communication, right? This is an extremely strong consensus. You can hardly imagine any other language replacing it in the coming decades. Bitcoin is the "English" of digital currencies.

The likelihood of it being replaced by other varieties will only decrease over time, not increase. This is the fundamental logic behind why I don't hold large positions in other varieties.

IV. Altcoins and DeFi: An "Experiment"

Key takeaway: "What is the value of altcoins? They're already altcoins. You can still wear alt shoes, but what can altcoins do? Apart from Bitcoin and stablecoins, if all the others disappeared overnight, the world would still function normally, without any problems."

Mercy: What are your thoughts on the recent sharp market fluctuations and the claim that "altcoins have gone to zero value"?

Old Cat: I think that statement is very true. Market makers aren't in this market to do charity; they're in to make money. Once a one-sided market trend emerges, they can shut down their bots and run away to avoid their own risks—there's no moral issue involved. A market that relies on market makers to maintain liquidity is inherently unhealthy. This crash is essentially the market squeezing out a bubble.

The sole purpose of altcoins is to allow skilled individuals to profit from their extreme volatility, then convert their earnings into stablecoins, fiat currency, or Bitcoin to grow their wealth. But what is their core value? It's called "altcoin" after all. I have a wallet from years ago where I participated in various projects; when I opened it, it contained a bunch of coins I didn't recognize, and my assets were essentially worthless.

Therefore, Occam's razor principle applies here as well: entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily. Aside from Bitcoin and stablecoins, if other crypto assets disappeared overnight, there would be no real-world problem.

Mercy: Do you consider DeFi to be a form of financial innovation?

Old Cat: I think these are still considered "experiments" so far. They are essentially replicating existing practices in the traditional financial world, such as asset collateralization and lending with interest, on the blockchain through code and relationships.

However, the problem is that many underlying assets in the DeFi world are tokens that are artificially created and lack solid value support, which makes its foundation far less stable than that of traditional finance.

Therefore, we see the DeFi space constantly plagued by problems: projects running away with investors' money, protocols being attacked, and liquidations occurring. Everyone's having a blast, and smart people can even make money. It's like a grand opening sale at a shopping mall; early birds get the eggs, latecomers get the laundry detergent, but most people ultimately just end up spending money. Personally, I won't participate; I'll continue to observe.

V. Anque: A product I've been thinking about for ten years, a trustworthy investment.

The key takeaway: "I already have some assets, but I can't even imagine the consequences if I can't take care of my family at times. I hope for a reasonably priced tool that can truly help me solve this problem in case of emergency."

Mercy: I'm curious, why did you create 'Anchpor'?

Old Cat: I had this idea ten years ago.

At that time, I had just started to accumulate some assets, but I was extremely busy with work, flying more than 50 times a year. Every time a plane took off, I thought to myself, what if, just by the slightest chance, my assets would be lost to my family?

I am someone who desires absolute independence in managing my assets and doesn't want my family to interfere too early. However, on the other hand, I absolutely cannot accept the consequences if my accident causes them to fall into financial hardship.

At the time, I wondered if there was a mechanism that could resolve this contradiction. High-end family trusts were an option, but the threshold was too high, often requiring hundreds of millions of US dollars, and they were extremely expensive.

I needed a tool that was reasonably priced, accessible to ordinary people, and could effectively address this "what if" problem. That was my original intention in creating "Anque".

Mercy: How does "Anque" solve this problem? Who are its target users?

Old Cat: Its core is a "smart delivery of important clues" function. Users can set an interaction period with the software (such as 30 days). If there is no interaction for a long time, our platform will contact you via SMS, email, or even phone to check your status.

Once all efforts have been made and it is still confirmed that you are out of contact, the system will send an encrypted clue package that you have prepared in advance to the recipient after your preset cooling-off period (such as 180 days).

The most ingenious part is that the password for this clue package can be in the form of a "zero-knowledge proof." For example, you can tell the recipient that the password is "the last four digits of your mother's passport" plus "the name of your pet." This information is known only to you and the recipient; our platform has no way of knowing it. This perfectly strikes a balance between independent asset management and ultimate protection for family members.

Its target users are people like me: ordinary investors who have certain assets, want to manage them independently, but have a strong sense of responsibility to their families and are willing to spend $100 a year to provide their families with an "invisible insurance".

VI. The Final Judgment of Assets: A Person Who Never Sells

The key quote: "I've always had this obsession: if I'm sure that money in the real world is no longer useful, then the moment I buy Bitcoin is when I truly 'take profits'—I profit from the real world and buy Bitcoin to close the deal. I haven't learned how to sell; I really don't know how."

Mercy: MicroStrategy's strategy is "buy only, never sell," which is similar to yours. Have you considered selling Bitcoin to "take profits"?

Old Cat: He really came much later than me. What I'm about to say might sound unnatural to newcomers, but I have to tell you the truth: I've never considered the so-called "profit-taking." For me, that concept doesn't exist.

I did sell some Bitcoin to buy a house and to cover my family's living expenses in different places.

But right now, I don't have a single USDT of stablecoins in the crypto world.

I've always held this belief: only when I feel I have nowhere to spend my fiat currency in the real world, and I use it to buy Bitcoin, can I truly say I've "closed the deal." It's about making a profit in the real world and using Bitcoin to settle the transaction.

People say I'm greedy, holding onto such cheap tokens and not selling. I don't care. I still think Bitcoin is too cheap right now. I gave up volatility, leverage, and the thrill of buying low and selling high because I truly understand that the collapse of the fiat currency world will continue indefinitely.

So, I really haven't learned how to sell, and I don't know how. As long as I have enough fiat currency, I won't sell.

VII. The Next Decade: Two Tracks, One Principle

Mercy: If you were to look ahead 5-10 years, which sector would you choose to invest in?

Old Cat: I've chosen two tracks: AI and Crypto. And my choices are very simple: in AI, I'll only invest in Tesla, and in Crypto, I'll only invest in Bitcoin.

Both of these are stocks I'll hold for over ten years. Tesla is the only company that seamlessly integrates AI with the real world and possesses powerful industrial production capabilities; its vision is unmatched. The Tesla I drive was a free gift with Tesla stock (laughs).

Mercy: What advice do you have for young people?

Old Cat: My advice to young people is only one, because I've been through it myself: Please make sure you understand that the crypto industry is actually in a process of constant falsification.

Many things may seem correct now, but they may be proven false after a period of time, rendering them worthless. There are opportunities in this process, but the risks are even greater.

Therefore, never bet everything on one thing, and always give yourself a chance to start over.

The reason I've gotten to where I am today is because I've always been deliberately conservative and extremely restrained of my desires.

8. About OKX: A Steady Long-Term Perspective

Mercy: What's your general impression of OKX? What kind of company do you think OKX is?

Old Cat: I had previously raised some concerns on Twitter about minor issues, but I later discovered that OKX had genuinely taken significant steps to resolve those problems. I think OKX is a company that leans towards a stable and technology-driven approach. You're working on compliance, and have even obtained licenses in many areas; you're a long-term-oriented company.

Disclaimer:

This article is for informational purposes only. The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not represent the position of OKX. This article is not intended to provide (i) investment advice or recommendations; (ii) an offer or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold digital assets; or (iii) financial, accounting, legal, or tax advice. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of such information. Holding digital assets (including stablecoins and NFTs) involves high risk and may result in significant volatility. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you based on your financial situation. Consult your legal/tax/investment professional regarding your specific circumstances. You are solely responsible for understanding and complying with applicable local laws and regulations.