As October draws to a close, the crypto market appears to be showing some upward trends.

Over the past two months, caution has become a dominant theme in the crypto market, particularly after the October 11th crash. As the impact of that crash gradually fades, market sentiment appears to have stabilized, and instead, renewed hope has emerged.

Starting from the latter part of the month, some signs of an upward trend gradually emerged: net inflows turned positive, altcoin ETFs were approved in batches, and expectations for interest rate cuts rose.

ETF funds are returning, and institutions are back on board

The most eye-catching data in October came from ETFs.

Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows of $4.21 billion this month, reversing the $1.23 billion outflow seen in September. Assets under management have reached $178.2 billion, representing 6.8% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization. Just looking at the week of October 20-27 alone, $446 million in new funds flowed in, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for $324 million, bringing its holdings to over 800,000 BTC.

For traditional financial markets, ETF inflows are the most direct bullish indicator—more honest than social media buzz and more realistic than candlestick charts.

More importantly, this round of price increases has a real institutional flavor. Morgan Stanley has opened up BTC and ETH allocations to all wealth management clients; JPMorgan allows institutional clients to use Bitcoin as loan collateral.

According to the latest data, the average allocation of crypto assets by institutions has risen to 5%, a record high. Furthermore, 85% of institutions indicated they have already allocated or plan to allocate crypto assets.

Although the Ethereum ETF pales in comparison to the Bitcoin spot ETF, it saw a net outflow of $555 million in October, the first consecutive net outflow since April this year, primarily from ETH funds under Fidelity and BlackRock.

But this also seems to be a new signal, meaning that funds are rotating, moving from ETH to BTC and SOL, which have greater upside potential, or perhaps preparing for a new ETF.

A large number of altcoin ETFs are coming.

On October 28th, the first batch of altcoin ETFs officially launched in the United States, covering Solana, Litecoin, and Hedera. Bitwise and Grayscale launched the SOL ETF, and Canary Capital's LTC and HBAR ETFs were also approved for trading on the Nasdaq.

But this is just the beginning.

According to reports, there are currently 155 altcoin ETFs awaiting approval, covering 35 mainstream assets, with a total size expected to exceed the initial inflows of the first two rounds of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

If all of them are released, the market may experience an unprecedented "liquidity shockwave".

Historically, the launch of Bitcoin ETFs has led to cumulative inflows of over $50 billion, while Ethereum ETFs have brought in $25 billion in asset growth.

ETFs are more than just financial products; they serve as a gateway for capital to enter the market. When this gateway expands from BTC and ETH to altcoins like SOL, XRP, LINK, and AVAX, the entire market's valuation system will be revalued.

Institutional interest in crypto assets is growing stronger.

In addition, ProShares is preparing to launch the CoinDesk 20 ETF, tracking 20 assets including BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, etc.; REX-Osprey's 21-Asset ETF goes a step further, allowing holders to obtain staking income from tokens such as ADA, AVAX, NEAR, SEI, TAO, etc.

There are 23 ETFs tracking Solana alone awaiting approval. This intensive deployment is almost tantamount to a public declaration: institutional risk profiles are extending from Bitcoin to the entire DeFi ecosystem.

From a macro perspective, this potential for liquidity expansion is enormous. As of October 2025, the total market capitalization of global stablecoins approached $300 billion. Once this "liquidity reserve" is activated by ETFs, it will create a powerful multiplier effect. Taking Bitcoin ETFs as an example, every $1 flowing into an ETF will eventually be amplified to several times its market capitalization.

If the same logic is applied to altcoins, hundreds of billions of dollars in new capital could drive a renewed boom in the entire DeFi ecosystem.

The wind of interest rate cuts has once again brought new liquidity

Besides ETFs, another factor that changes market trends comes from the ever-present macroeconomic level.

On October 29th, the Federal Reserve had a 98.3% probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points. The market seemed to have already digested this expectation, with the US dollar index weakening, risk assets collectively strengthening, and Bitcoin breaking through $114,900.

What does an interest rate cut mean? It means that funds need to find new outlets.

In 2025, when traditional markets generally lack imagination, encryption became the place where "storytelling is still going strong".

What's even more interesting is that this round of positive developments comes not only from the market but also from policy.

On October 27, the White House nominated Michael Selig as Chairman of the CFTC. This former crypto lawyer has always been friendly; the SEC also updated the ETP creation mechanism, allowing crypto ETFs to be redeemed on the spot, greatly simplifying operations.

On the topic of "regulatory friendliness," the US market has not only loosened its stance but has opened its doors. The government is no longer suppressing innovation but is trying to allow the crypto industry to "exist compliantly."

The numbers on the blockchain are also confirming all of this.

Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi grew by 3.48% in October, reaching $157.5 billion. Ethereum's TVL reached $88.6 billion, a 4% increase; Solana rose 7%; and BSC saw an even greater increase of 15%. This represents not just a "return of funds," but also a return of trust.

In addition, total open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts has risen to $53.7 billion, and the funding rate is positive, indicating that bulls are dominating the market. Whale wallets are also increasing their holdings, with one large investor purchasing $350 million worth of BTC in just five hours. In the secondary market, Uniswap's monthly trading volume exceeded $161 billion, and Raydium's exceeded $20 billion, demonstrating a continued rise in ecosystem activity.

These on-chain metrics constitute the most compelling evidence of a bullish trend: funds are moving, positions are increasing, and trading is booming.

Why are top analysts bullish?

Arthur Hayes: The four-year cycle is dead, the liquidity cycle is immortal.

In a blog post titled "Long Live the King" published on Thursday, Arthur Hayes wrote that while some cryptocurrency traders expect Bitcoin to soon reach the peak of its cycle and crash next year, he believes this time will be different.

His core argument is that Bitcoin's "four-year cycle" has become invalid because what truly determines market trends is never the "halving," but rather the global liquidity cycle—especially the resonance between the monetary policies of the US dollar and the RMB.

The past three bull and bear market cycles seem to have followed a pattern of "bull market after halving, a four-year cycle," but that's just the surface. Hayes believes this pattern holds true because each cycle occurred precisely during a period of significant balance sheet expansion in the US dollar or RMB, extremely low interest rates, and global credit easing. For example:

2009–2013: The Federal Reserve's unlimited quantitative easing and China's massive lending;

2013–2017: RMB credit expansion fueled the ICO boom;

2017–2021: The “helicopter money” of the Trump and Biden era led to a flood of liquidity.

When the credit expansion of these two currencies slows down, Bitcoin's bull market also comes to an end. In other words, Bitcoin is merely a barometer of global monetary easing.

By 2025, this "halving-driven" logic will have completely collapsed. This is because the monetary policies of the US and China have entered a new normal—political pressure demands continued easing, and liquidity will no longer tighten cyclically.

The US needs to "heat up its economy" to dilute its debt, with Trump pressuring for interest rate cuts and fiscal expansion; China is also releasing credit to combat deflation. Both countries are injecting funds into the market.

Therefore, Hayes concludes: "The four-year cycle is dead. The real cycle is the liquidity cycle. As long as the US and China continue printing money, Bitcoin will continue to rise."

This means that the future crypto market will no longer be dictated by the "halving" timeline, but rather by the "direction of the US dollar and the Chinese yuan." He concluded with the statement: "The king is dead, long live the king"—the old cycle has ended, but a new, liquidity-driven Bitcoin cycle has just begun.

Raoul Pal: A 5.4-year cycle replaces the traditional 4-year cycle

Raoul Pal's 5-year cycle theory represents a fundamental reconstruction of the traditional 4-year Bitcoin halving cycle. He argues that the traditional 4-year cycle is not driven by the Bitcoin protocol itself, but rather by the fact that the past three cycles (2009-2013, 2013-2017, and 2017-2021) coincided with the global debt refinancing cycle.

The end of these cycles was due to monetary tightening policies, not the halving event itself.

The key to this theoretical shift lies in the structural change in the average maturity of U.S. debt during 2021-2022. In a near-zero interest rate environment, the U.S. Treasury extended the average weighted maturity of debt from approximately 4 years to 5.4 years.

This extension not only affects the timeline for debt refinancing, but more importantly, it changes the pace of global liquidity release, thus postponing Bitcoin's cyclical peak from the traditional fourth quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, which also indicates that the fourth quarter of 2025 will be a recovery period.

According to Raoul Pal, global debt has reached approximately $300 trillion, with about $10 trillion maturing soon (mainly US Treasury bonds and corporate bonds), requiring a massive liquidity injection to prevent yields from soaring. Each trillion dollars of increased liquidity is correlated with 5-10% returns on stocks and cryptocurrencies. For cryptocurrencies, a $10 trillion refinancing could inject $2-3 trillion into risk assets, pushing BTC from its 2024 low of $60,000 to over $200,000 by 2026.

Therefore, Pal's model predicts that the second quarter of 2026 will witness an unprecedented liquidity peak. When the ISM breaks through 60, it will trigger Bitcoin to enter the "banana zone," with a target price of $200,000 to $450,000.

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