Original author: Arthur Hayes

Original translation: CryptoLeo ( @LeoAndCrypto )

Recently, Arthur Hayes, known as "Little Black," was interviewed by Cointelegraph on KBW. In the interview, he talked about his views on HYPE, BTC, and the altcoin season. This interview may be instructive for many people and is worth watching. Odaily compiled it as follows (this article does not adopt the Q&A format):

For more information on Xiao Heige's previous behavior of selling while shouting, please refer to: " You kid ran away again! A review of Arthur Hayes's record of escaping the top "

(When talking about Ferrari, Xiaohei smiled very happily)

I'm optimistic about Hyperliquid's 126x potential by 2028, but now it's 2025 (hands shrug)

At the beginning of the interview, the reporter mentioned Arthur's recent reaction to the new Ferrari Testarossa. Arthur said, "I received a marketing text message from a dealer about the new Ferrari. I thought it was so cool, and I'm definitely going to buy one." He said, "I already own a Ferrari and have driven a Lamborghini before, but I prefer the feel of a Ferrari. I'm a terrible driver and only passed my driver's license on my second attempt. My current apartment has a garage, so having an extra car isn't a problem for me."

When asked, " Are you going to use the profits from HYPE to buy Ferrari? So you immediately sell HYPE after calling the order to prepare? " Arthur said:

I intend to buy while I can, even though it's not even listed yet. I think people need to understand the timing and timeline. In my Tokyo speech, I mentioned that HYPE has the potential to reach a 126x multiple by 2028. Now it's 2025, and a lot can happen in between . Although I sold HYPE, I still believe it will reach 126x by 2028.

There are some potential issues. Hyperliquid, for example, faces some serious challenges. First, there's competition from zero or low fees. They've proven themselves to be a more liquid, perp DEX platform preferred by retail investors. Hyperliquid charges a trading fee (a technical issue), but it's not the first DEX. Building a DEX isn't difficult; the challenges lie in marketing and other aspects. In fact, there hasn't been much competition for perp DEXs since 2016.

Users are very sensitive to DEX transaction fees. They want a new "hype" platform, and so do I. While HYPE is performing well, I want new, new coins that can increase 10x/100x. Therefore, they are highly motivated to seek out new platforms with lower fees, new tokens, and airdrops that can boost their portfolios by another 10x or even 100x. Therefore, user liquidity has been very difficult on Hyperliquid . I checked the DefiLlama leaderboard over the weekend and saw perpetual platforms like Lighter and Aster. Three or four days ago, I had no idea what Aster was. Now I have a general understanding. CZ may or may not support Aster. But I've been in the exchange space for a long time and have seen what happens to high-fee exchanges when competitors offer lower transaction fees. They need to do something concrete to defend their market share. It's undeniable that the overall perpetual market share will grow by 2028.

Hyperliquid may be in a very favorable position, but in the short term, HYPE has $500 million in tokens unlocked each month, facing potential selling pressure, and HYPE's buybacks rely on revenue, which is being undermined by platforms that offer zero/low fees. Then I would consider withdrawing some of my chips and wait and see how Hyperliquid performs . Can they find a way to maintain their liquidity? If they can, I will re-enter the market. I won't kill HYPE with one blow. If HYPE rises from $50 to $100, I still think it will rise to $5,000 in 2028, but $25 to $50 is my stop-loss range in the meantime. Even if HYPE returns to $25, I will still say it sees $5,000 in 2028.

(For those who follow me, I can only shrug.)

This is a precautionary approach to my investment management. I'm an investment expert, not a fool. So, after assessing the risk I'm willing to take in the current ecosystem, I'll consider making these decisions to optimize my portfolio's performance. Perhaps by 2028, the 126x prediction will come true.

BTC's $250,000 target by the end of the year may be extended, and its 4-year cycle theory will also change.

Regarding my previous prediction of Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by the end of the year, I think it's likely to hold true. However, Bitcoin is currently showing some weakness, and I think it'll be interesting to see how US Treasuries and Fed Funds are trading. If you look at the chart since September 17th, you'll see that Treasuries have rejected the Fed's rate cut, with the Fed Funds rate rising 14 basis points. I don't know the data after the rate cut, but I checked Bloomberg data. Bitcoin fell that day, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose. Gold also rose, but people aren't worried about a decline in gold. Central banks around the world are trying to move away from the US dollar system, so gold and silver have performed well.

The real concern isn't whether the 10-year Treasury will reject the Fed's rate cuts, but rather that we're at a critical juncture in the stock market. Whether Bitcoin or stocks is the right investment choice is unclear to me right now. However, I'm certain that the money printing and, as I just discussed, Trump taking over the Fed within the next 12 months will accelerate this trend, potentially leading to Bitcoin reaching $250,000 within a year.

The Fed's September rate cut is indeed bullish for Bitcoin, but what we really need is an increase in the money supply. We need to stop quantitative tightening and start quantitative easing. We need the Fed to untie the shackles on banks so they can lend again and create more credit. This is what Milan, the latest Trump-appointed board member, has been advocating for. Just yesterday, he said in an interview that he believes 2% interest rates are too high and that quantitative tightening should end, but that will take some time.

When asked if Bitcoin still follows the four-year bull-bear cycle, Arthur said:

I don't like to be constrained by a specific time frame and have to evaluate things based on actual conditions, just like I said before that HYPE would reach 126 times, but in fact I sold it, so in investing, we need to be more flexible.

I believe that money printing is structural, a reordering of the world order. Every participant wants to ensure that their citizens don't feel any pain and reduce the volatility of their own currencies. These monetary orders aren't four-year cycles; they could be decades or even longer. I believe we're at a unique macroeconomic moment. If Bitcoin's bull and bear cycles used to be four years, then from a macroeconomic perspective, the situation may be different now . I'm not saying the current bull and bear cycle will necessarily exceed four years. However, if certain indicators suggest that Bitcoin is still in a four-year cycle, I won't take profits on certain positions (I won't follow the four-year cycle theory, even if I'm wrong).

So to maintain investment flexibility, I believe the more likely scenario is that we are in an extended cycle (more than four years) that is being prolonged by aggressive money printing around the world and changes in this structural, monetary and political world order.

Copycat season is still here, but only certain people are in it

I don't think there will be an explosive altcoin season, but it depends on what you buy. For example, HYPE went from $3 to $60, and XRP also broke through $3, but XRP is garbage. However, the general rise of altcoins like in the past will not happen again. We have become more sensible in our investments. Unlike in the past, we no longer invest in projects with specific websites, white papers, and farms. If the project can only provide these, I will not buy your token. Now we need projects that can bring real returns to token holders. If the project is only VC-backed, I will not buy your token. The future altcoin season will only be suitable for certain people.