Last week (June 17-June 23), affected by geopolitical factors and monetary policy uncertainty, market sentiment fluctuated repeatedly and BTC prices fluctuated violently. Affected by Trumps speech and the increase in the geopolitical risk index, the BTC price fluctuated downward from the intra-week high of $108,952.38 to $98,200. The market panic was obvious, and the maximum decline during the week was 9.8%. With Israel and Iran reaching a ceasefire agreement, market sentiment changed rapidly. Currently, BTC leads the rise, breaking through $106,000 in a short period of time, and rising 4.33% in 24 hours. The current price is stable around $105,291. (Binance spot, June 24, 15:30).
Market Interpretation
Risk aversion rises after geopolitical storm, gold looks at fiscal deficit in the medium and long term
In mid-June, the Middle East conflict escalated, and global risk appetite dropped sharply. The price of BTC quickly fell below $100,000, and the amount of liquidation in 24 hours reached $1.16 billion, with more than 250,000 investors forced to close their positions. High-volatility assets such as U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies were collectively under pressure, and funds flowed heavily to safe-haven assets.
With the ceasefire agreement reached, market risk sentiment quickly recovered, BTC rebounded 4.5% in 24 hours, and US stocks rebounded simultaneously, but the performance of gold was more affected by the US fiscal health and confidence in the US dollar. Bank of America predicts that the price of gold is expected to reach $4,000/ounce in the next year. The key driving factors are the continued expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the pressure on the status of the US dollar, and the increase in gold holdings by global central banks.
Currently, the proportion of gold held by global central banks to US public debt has risen to 18%, and the proportion of gold in global reserves has risen to 20%. If the US debt supply is oversupplied and the deficit is difficult to converge, the safe-haven and anti-inflation value of gold will continue to be favored by capital.
BTC rebounds above $106,000 as risk appetite rebounds as Middle East ceasefire
In mid-June, the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated, the global geopolitical risk index soared to 158, BTC fell below $100,000 and triggered a $1.16 billion liquidation across the network. On June 24, after the two sides reached a ceasefire agreement, risk sentiment quickly recovered, BTC rebounded 4.5% in 24 hours, returned to $106,000, ETH and SOL rose simultaneously by 5%-7%, and the total market value of cryptocurrencies rebounded by 3% in a single day.
As of June 23, BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of $1.3 billion in five days, indicating a rebound in institutional confidence. The derivatives funding rate turned positive, and bulls dominated the market. The ceasefire eliminated the biggest short-term uncertainty. BTC has both the characteristics of a risk asset and digital gold. The market outlook focuses on the $108,000 resistance and macro variables.
Powell hawks speak out: Tariffs become a new risk of inflation, and the Feds interest rate cut expectations are challenged again
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% this round. Chairman Powell rarely emphasized the lagged impact of tariffs on inflation at the press conference, warning Trump that new tariffs may continue to push up prices. Powell made it clear that he would not consider easing until he had sufficient confidence that inflation would fall, reinforcing the expectation that high interest rates will be maintained for a longer period of time.
Although the Feds dot plot still shows room for two rate cuts in 2025, the market generally interprets it as verbal appeasement and the real policy guidance is hawkish. Affected by this, the three major U.S. stock indexes have retreated, bond yields have become more volatile, and the markets concerns about the risk of stagflation have increased.
For the crypto market, short-term liquidity pressure and a stronger dollar have suppressed the performance of risky assets. However, in the long run, if tariffs continue to push up inflation, the digital gold attributes and safe-haven demand of crypto assets such as BTC may regain market attention. In the coming months, the Feds policies and inflation data will continue to dominate market expectations, and macro uncertainty will increase significantly.
Circles stock price rocketed, and the stablecoin regulation bill passed the Senate, boosting its listing by more than 540%
Last week, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Stablecoin Act with a high vote, becoming an important milestone in the regulatory process of the crypto industry. Driven by this positive news, the share price of Circle (CRCL), the worlds leading stablecoin issuer, rose by 34% in a single day, reaching a high of $211.87 after hours. Since its listing on June 5, the cumulative increase has exceeded 540%, and the market value has exceeded $48 billion. The market generally expects that the trading volume of CRCL will surge to 60 million shares on that day, and investors are full of expectations for regulatory dividends.
As the bill establishes compliance standards, Circle and its flagship USDC stablecoin are expected to benefit first, and the mainstream trend of stablecoins will be further accelerated. The exclusive USD account function launched by Matrixport provides global users with one-click account opening, convenient transfer and efficient settlement services, providing strong support for institutions and individuals to configure USD stablecoin assets in compliance. Faced with a new round of regulatory dividends in the stablecoin industry, how to manage USD assets in compliance and efficiency has become a new direction of global funds.
Market Hotspots
BTC options quarterly delivery is approaching, Deribit data shows the biggest pain point is $100,000
This Friday, Deribit will see the largest BTC options delivery of the quarter, worth up to $14 billion. The current put/call ratio is 0.7, indicating that the overall market sentiment is neutral to bullish. The Max Pain Point is at $100,000, which means that the overall loss for option holders at this price is minimal.
The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act with a high vote, marking substantial progress in stablecoin regulation
In mid-June, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Stablecoin Act by a vote of 68:30, establishing a clear framework for compliance supervision of dollar-pegged stablecoins. The bill has received broad bipartisan support and has been sent to the House of Representatives for deliberation. The new bill will establish strict reserve, transparency and compliance requirements for stablecoin issuers, covering mainstream dollar stablecoins such as USDC and USDT. This policy push sends a signal that the digital dollar will be officially recognized by the country, forming long-term support for BTC.
The probability of multi-asset spot crypto ETF approval has greatly increased, and market sentiment has clearly warmed up
According to the latest opinions of Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has become more positive in approving various spot cryptocurrency ETFs such as XRP, SOL, DOGE, LTC, ADA, etc. Analysts have raised the approval probability of the above mainstream asset ETFs to 90% or more, and believe that the SEC has shown a higher willingness to cooperate. The only exception is SUI, which has a 60% approval probability due to regulatory uncertainty.
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