VC Cost Bargain Hunting Guide: Finding Investment Opportunities from the Perspective of "Market Value-Valuation"
Original author: Bugsbunny—e/acc, crypto KOL
VC Cost Bottom-picking Guide 1.1 (Revised Chinese Version)
I would like to provide you with a reference for bottom-picking from the perspective of "market value-valuation", which may be the only one in the entire Twitter.
1. Let me explain the meaning of "market value is 1-2 times the valuation" in this table
If VCs cannot bring more than 2 times of returns, they would rather buy BTC directly (little knowledge: BTC has rebounded by nearly 80% this year).
When the coin price is at 1-2 times the valuation, the project party is just like buying back the coins in the hands of VC.
(The biggest selling pressure on altcoins comes from unlocked coins) There is nothing left to sell at this point, and market makers can inject liquidity at this time.
2. Why not look at the seed round valuation?
VCs may only win one out of 50 seed-round projects, so they deserve to make the money.
Moreover, the seed round valuation and unlocking date are confusing and unpredictable.
3. Why look at Market Cap instead of FDV?
Most blockchain projects find it difficult to sustain operations for more than 2 years, while FDV can easily start from 5 years.
If calculated by FDV, this table will have little meaning.
4. How to use this guide?
Green is the price of the coin with a market value of 1-2 times the valuation;
The blue one is the coin price in the 2-3 times valuation;
The uncolored ones are the coins with prices higher than three times the valuation;
Red means the coin price has fallen below the valuation;
In theory, market makers need to maintain their market value in the range of 1-3 times the valuation, because there is no room for further decline (this is not the only indicator to measure but an indicator that cannot be ignored).
Then coins that maintain strong price, such as coins with 2x valuation or above (blue mark or no mark), mean that market makers are of better quality.
5. Some projects do not have valuations. How do you get the valuations?
Data sources: @CoinMarketCap@RootDataLabs, token unlocks. Thanks to these three service providers for their data support.
Some projects do not have PR valuation, so I can only boldly try to do valuation. I hope everyone will be gentle with their criticism.
6. Note: Please note that the yellow part is the coins to be unlocked in May and June, which will bring additional selling pressure to the market.
After the table is unlocked, the relevant data will be updated.
