Original author: Frank, Foresight News
2024 can be said to be a big year for the worlds top sports events, from the 2023 Asian Cup (January 12 to February 10), which is in full swing, to the European Cup, known as the Little World Cup in the middle of the year ( June 14th to July 14th), to the Paris Olympics that opened in July (July 26th to August 11th), and even the U.S. election on November 5th, major sports political events throughout the country Year.
especiallyThe European Cup and Olympic Games will follow from June to August.As a large-scale international sports event that attracts global attention, it has huge international influence and fan base, which will undoubtedly bring great attention and speculation space to related sports track tokens.
This article aims to briefly sort out the sports tokens worthy of attention, and by reviewing the price trends of related leading tokens during the 2021 European Cup and 2022 World Cup, trying to get a glimpse of the potential transactions behind this years global events. law.
Which sports category tokens are worth paying attention to?
What is rolling on the green field is not football, but gold. Tokens related to sports tracks have always been the investment targets with the strongest cyclicality and hype expectations in the crypto world.
If this is divided, it can be roughly divided into three categories:Sports public chain(Chiliz, TOPGOAL, etc.),Fan representative of team/starcoins (SANTOS, BAR, CITY, etc.), andPrediction Gambling Related Tokens(The sports NFT category is not listed in this article for the time being).
Sports public chain
Chiliz（CHZ）
The first among them is naturally Chiliz (CHZ). As a sports and entertainment blockchain financial technology provider, Chiliz has been the basic blockchain platform for many football clubs to issue fan tokens, and has launched interactive fan services for the sports and entertainment industry. and rewards app Socios.com.
On Socios.com, fans can purchase CHZ and exchange it for fan tokens of a certain club, and then vote on club affairs. They can even directly participate in management (from jersey pattern design to daily team governance voting) or interact with players. comminicate.
The current market value of token CHZ is approximately US$880 million, and it is also the absolute leader in the sports track with the highest market value.
TOPGOAL（GOAL）
Web3 Football Metaverse Platform TOPGOAL is a sports metaverse platform that allows you to trade genuine digital star cards and participate in football games. It is committed to officially authorizing cooperation with world-famous stars, clubs, etc. to create new digital virtual experiences and services for stars, clubs and fans. Entertainment consumption patterns.
At present, many well-known stars including Del Piero, Michael Owen, Guti, Rivaldo, etc. have joined, and GOAL is the governance token of TOPGOAL, with a market value of only about US$2 million as of the time of publication.
Team/star fan tokens
Secondly, there are fan tokens of each team/club issued based on blockchains such as Chiliz. Holders usually receive exclusive rights and interests, including voting privileges and exclusive rewards from the club.
As of the time of publication, Chiliz has reached cooperation with many top football clubs such as Manchester City, Arsenal, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Juventus, Roma, AC Milan, Inter Milan, Paris Saint-Germain, etc., and has issued fans corresponding to a total of 63 teams. Tokens, well-known ones include:
AC Milan Football Club fan token: AC Milan Fan Token (ACM)
British football club Tottenham Hotspur fan token: Tottenham Hotspur FC Fan Token (SPURS)
Paris Saint-Germain Football Club fan token: Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token (PSG)
Juventus Football Club fan token: Juventus Fan Token (JUV)
Barcelona Football Club fan token: FC Barcelona Fan Token (BAR)
Portugal National Team Fan Token: Portugal National Team Fan Token (POR)
Atletico de Madrid Fan Token (ATM)
Inter Milan Fan Token: Inter Milan Fan Token (INTER)
Mexican Football Club fan token: Mexican Football club (SAN)
In addition, leading exchanges have also cooperated with the worlds top teams to issue fan tokens (most of them are also issued based on Chiliz).For example, the three fan tokens LAZIO, SANTOS and PORTO issued based on BNB Chain are widely regarded as Binance-based.
However, judging from the overall statistical caliber, as of the time of publication, Binance has launched a total of 10 fan tokens, including (team category, the same below):
Brazilian Serie A football club Santos fan token: Santos FC Fan Token (SANTOS)
Serie A Football Club Lazio: SS Lazio (LAZIO)
Porto Football Club fan token: FC Porto Fan Token (PORTO)
Barcelona Football Club fan token: FC Barcelona Fan Token (BAR)
Manchester Football Club fan token: Manchester City Fan Token (CITY)
Paris Saint-Germain Football Club fan token: Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token (PSG)
Juventus Football Club fan token: Juventus Fan Token (JUV)
AC Milan Football Club fan token: AC Milan Fan Token (ACM)
Atletico de Madrid Fan Token (ATM)
AS Roma Fan Token (ASR)
There are a total of 6 fan tokens listed on OKX, including:
Argentine Football Association Fan Token: Argentine Football Association Fan Token (ARG)
Portugal National Team Fan Token: Portugal National Team Fan Token (POR)
Rio de Janeiro Flamengo Sports Club fan token: Flamengo Fan Token (MENGO)
Turkish Trabzonspor Football Club fan token: Trabzonspor Fan Token (TRA)
Manchester Football Club fan token: Manchester City Fan Token (CITY)
Istanbul Professional Football Club fan token: Galatasaray Fan Token (GALFT)
Forecasting Betting
In addition, forecasting and betting demand often experience a surge in demand during major sports and political events, especially global events such as the World Cup, European Cup, and the U.S. presidential election.
Take Polymarket, the leader in prediction markets, as an example. In the past January, its trading volume exceeded US$50 million, setting a monthly record high.
Among them, the most high-profile boosting factors include the prediction of the ended El Salvador presidential election, whether the spot Bitcoin ETF will pass, as well as the ongoing prediction of the winning team of the 2024 European Cup, the prediction of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and the 2024 U.S. Different betting markets such as Democratic candidates for the presidential election.
However, Polymarket currently does not issue tokens, and other prediction markets such as Aver and BetDEX have extremely shallow betting pools and have not issued tokens.
However, with the European Cup, Olympic Games and US election approaching in the second half of the year, participating in the corresponding betting pools on various events may not be a bad opportunity to enrich investment options.
The historical law of first rises sharply, then plummets?
If you look back at the historical market, you will find that previous sports events such as the European Cup are approaching, the related tokens in the pan-sports sector generally follow the historical pattern of first skyrocketing, then plummeting.As for how long in advance the market will change, and what kind of trajectory it will take, the specific situation needs to be analyzed in detail.
Since most of these sports events are held every four years, and the development span of the crypto market is relatively large, in this article we only take the 2021 European Cup and the 2022 Qatar World Cup, which are the most recent time nodes, as examples, and combine them with the leading generation of sports public chains. Let’s conduct a simple review using the currency CHZ and the fan tokens SANTOS and PSG on Binance as examples.
Euro 2021
From June 12 to July 12, 2021, the 2020 European Cup kicked off (Foresight News note, originally scheduled for 2020, postponed by one year due to the impact of the epidemic).
Taking CHZ, the leading token in the sports sector, as an example, if we review the secondary market price performance four months before the start of this European Cup and throughout the event cycle, we will find that it can be roughly divided into three stages:
4 months before the event, early increase:Around February 12, CHZ began to gradually strengthen. In just one month, it rose from 0.3 USDT on February 12 to a maximum of 0.9449 USDT on March 12, a 30-day increase of more than 214%;
Two months before the event, out of the double top:But within a month or so from March 12 to April 16, CHZ first fell to a minimum of 0.36 USDT, a drop of more than 60% from the highest point, and then rose back to a maximum of 0.84 on April 16, breaking out of the double top. Then it continued to fall from the high point;
Throughout the tournament, there were shocks and falls:In the week before the opening day on June 12, CHZ was relatively strong, but it closed sharply down by more than 7% on the opening day, and then fluctuated all the way down, falling as low as $0.178, which was a drop of more than 80% from the high point four months ago;
In addition, Paris Saint-Germain Football Club fan token PSG follows a general trend trajectory——It started to change 3 months before the event, and quickly completed an upward cycle within more than a month. Then it began to decline continuously, and it continued to decline after the opening of the event:
3 months before the event, early increase:Around March 10, PSG surged by 52% that day. Within the next month and a half, it rose from the lowest of 10.862 USDT to the highest of 59 USDT on April 27, with an increase of over 443% in 47 days;
Two months before the event, the price peaked and fell:Then, in the nearly two months from April 27 to the opening of the tournament, PSG fell all the way to 10.78 USDT, almost back to the original point, a drop of more than 80% from the highest point. On the opening day on June 12, PSG plummeted again, with an amplitude of more than 10%;
One month after the end, it reached a new high:Paradoxically, after the European Cup ended, PSG began to rise rapidly, and quickly rose from 15 USDT to 61.5 USDT within 1 month, an increase of more than 310%;
qatar world cup 2022
From November 20 to December 18, 2022, the 2022 Qatar World Cup kicks off.
Among them, we still take CHZ, the leading token in the sports sector, as an example to review the secondary market price performance 5 months before the start of this World Cup and throughout the event cycle. We will find that it can be roughly divided into three stages:
Five months before the event, the short-term bottom was reached:On June 18, about five months before the opening of the event, CHZ hit a short-term low of 0.0811 USDT, and then began a two-month slow rising cycle - rising all the way from 0.0811 USDT on June 18 to August. It hit a maximum of 0.265 USDT on the 24th, with an increase of over 226% in 66 days;
Three months before the event, three top finishes:After hitting the top of the first stage on August 25, CHZ successively hit the second and third stage highs on September 23 and November 7 in the next three months before the game, forming a triple top pattern. ;
During the entire event, there was a huge fall:One week before the opening day on November 20, CHZ rose by more than 50% in just 5 days - from the lowest of 0.178 USDT on November 14 to 0.275 USDT on November 19. However, it immediately fell sharply, and closed down sharply by nearly 20% on the opening day. %, and then fell throughout the entire event, with the lowest falling to $0.1123 on December 17, which was nearly 60% lower than the stage high one month ago;
In addition, the Binance Series fan token SANTOS also started to change about 4 months in advance, and formed a double-top trend 3 months before the event, and then continued to decline. After the event started, it continued to decline. It can be roughly divided into Similar syllogism:
Four months before the event, changes began:On July 15th, about 4 months before the opening of the event, SANTOS began to move abnormally, with an amplitude of 15% on that day, and then began a one-month rapid rise cycle - rising all the way from 3.82 USDT on July 15th to August It reached a maximum of 21.49 USDT on the 19th, with an increase of over 462% in 34 days;
Three months before the event, it was a double top:After hitting the top of the first stage on August 19, SANTOS first fell to a minimum of 9.8 USDT, a drop of more than 50% from the highest point, and then rebounded again, and hit a new high of 22.67 USDT again on September 25, emerging from a double top pattern. ;
During the entire event, there was a huge fall:After setting a new high on September 25, SANTOS continued to fall until the opening of the event. Half a month before the opening of the event, it fell by more than 50% in a few days, and closed sharply down by nearly 20% on the opening day, and has continued to decline since then;
summary
Generally speaking, whether it is the European Cup competition cycle in 2021 or before and after the Qatar World Cup in 2022, the sports public chain tokens represented by CHZ areIt starts 4-5 months in advance and will quickly rise in just 1-2 months, with an increase of more than 200%, and at least a double top trend may be formed during this period.
The trends of fan tokens such as SANTOS are generally similar, but the details are slightly different:
In terms of time, compared to CHZ,Start a month later(Start 3-4 months in advance), the overall cycle rhythm will also be shortened by about a month;
In terms of increase,Preferring self-leveraged, the increase is often as high as 300% -400% or more.Higher than CHZ’s increase of around 200%;
However, as the European Cup World Cup are about to start, funds involved in early speculation tend to sell off at high points. The prices of these tokens often peak and fall 2-3 months before the opening of the event. There are even short-term plummets after the opening of the event. risks of.
From this perspective, the new round of global competition cycle in 2024, which is about to open in June, is just the starting point for the sports sector to carve out the boat and seek the sword, which has a strong reference significance.
Therefore, buy expectations, sell facts, this irrefutable truth in the investment field, is also almost the same for the sports sector (major event nodes), which has a strong cycle and can be planned forward and related currencies. The Iron Law of Crypto Trading.
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