Reviewing the premiums of Grayscale’s 14 crypto trusts, what investment opportunities exist?
Original |
Author | Qin Xiaofeng
Last night, Grayscale won a lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The court found that the SEC’s reasons for rejecting a Bitcoin spot ETF were insufficient. Although there is still a long way to go to achieve final victory, Grayscales short-term victory has undoubtedly boosted confidence in the market.
Stimulated by the good news, Grayscale’s crypto trust has also gained favor from investors. Finance.yahoo data shows that the trading volume of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) reached 20 million shares yesterday, the highest level since the crypto market crash in June 2022; the GBTC discount rate narrowed to 18.06%, the lowest value so far this year .
Fineqia research analyst Matteo Greco commented: “The sharp narrowing of the negative premium rate of Grayscale GBTC shows that the possibility of future ETF spot approval in the United States has increased significantly, which has prompted investors who believe that future ETFs will be listed to buy at a significant discount. GBTC.”
In fact, many people may not have noticed that since the beginning of this year, the discount rates and premium rates of many of Grayscale’s cryptocurrency trust funds have shrunk and the premium rates have expanded. This is not only due to the impact of the upward trend of the crypto market, but also cannot be separated from the increased recognition of traditional financial markets. Incoming buying orders rise. The discount rate has narrowed significantly, which means that the return rate of buying Grayscale Trust products during the same period is much higher than buying crypto spot.
According to statistics, currently, only 7 of Grayscales 14 crypto trusts are at a discount - 11 were at a discount at the beginning of this year, and 4 products have turned to positive premiums in the past 8 months (XLM, MANA, ZEN and BAT ), and the discounts on the other seven products are also constantly narrowing. Odaily has compiled the premium performance of Grayscale Trust this year, as shown in the video, click to view (the horizontal screen effect is better):
(Premium performance of various currency trusts this year, produced by Odaily)
Data shows that in mid-to-late December last year, the discounts of various currencies reached the maximum. For example, BTC reached -48.89% on December 14 last year, and ETH hit -59.61% on December 30. After mid-June, as many traditional institutions such as BlackRock applied for Bitcoin spot ETFs, grayscale products became popular, and the discounts of many products began to narrow and premiums began to expand. Especially after Grayscale won the lawsuit last night, the discounts of BTC and ETH hit new lows this year, 18.06% and -30.14% respectively.
Other grayscale products have mixed performance, here are the key points:
ETC Trust (ETCG) had a discount of 76.69% at the beginning of this year, and hit a lowest value of -50.49% last night. The performance throughout the year was stable, and the discount situation ranked last among grayscale products.
BCH and LTC both belong to POW mining, and their trend is stronger than BTC this year, which is also reflected in the premium of Grayscale products. Among them, BCH Trust (BCHG) once rose from -56.98% at the beginning of the year to -5.56% (July 4); then it prospered and then declined, the BCH price fell sharply, and the BCHG discount also fell to the lowest -42.5% (August 4 Japan); the discount of LTC Trust (LTCN) rose to 19.03% (August 30) from 65.23% at the beginning of the year, which is equivalent to the discount level of BCHG.
ZEC Trust (ZCSH) recorded two premiums on July 4 and August 3, respectively 4.65% and 16.02%.
XLM Trust (GXLM) reversed its decline at the end of January, switching from discount to premium, and then consolidated below 10% for more than 4 months. Finally, it broke out in June, with the premium rate rising, reaching a maximum of 417.75% (July 1 ), which is currently maintained at a premium of around 150%.
ZEN Trust (HZEN) has experienced a premium since June, with the highest point reaching 47.89% on July 21.
The discount of BAT Trust (GBAT) in the first half of the year has been around 40%, and it started to gain momentum in late June, with the premium rising to a maximum of 42.46% (July 1).
LINK Trust (GLNK) performed steadily throughout the year, always maintaining a positive premium, reaching a peak of 251.35% (July 4).
MANA Trust (MANA) started trading at a premium in March, peaking at 158.58% (July 20), and the premium currently remains above 50%.
FIL Trust (FILG) maintained a premium of 109% at the beginning of the year and has been stable, rising as high as 783.05% (July 14).
LPT Trust (GLIV) has experienced a premium since May, rising as high as 26.7% (July 6), then falling sharply, and currently trading at a discount of 30%.
Solana Trust (GSOL) is special. It was placed to investors in November 2021, but it did not start supporting OTC trading until April 2023. Data from Grayscale’s official website shows that GSOL had a premium of 144.17% on its first day of launch on April 28. Since then, it has maintained a premium of more than 1 times, reaching a maximum of 356.52% (August 15), and the current premium is 270%.
Finally, the appendix is a GIF of premium trends for each currency, as shown below:
