69 Points of Year-End Reflection: In 2022, We Are Lost in the Crypto World
Original author: RedphoneCrypto, KOL
Original compilation: Leo, BlockBeats
Original compilation: Leo, BlockBeats
If Crypto is a dividing line in human history, then 2022 is very likely to become a dividing line in the history of encryption, distinguishing between before 2022 and the future, the well-known encryption KOL RedphoneCrypto wrote an article, including his exposure to encryption The story of the story and some insights in the industry for 10 years, BlockBeats compiled as follows:
When I bought my first BTC in 2013, I had to print out the paperwork, drive half an hour to the pharmacy, pick up the old red phone (the one with the hard wire), call a MoneyGram ) line to California, they asked me to wire $100 to BitInstant, and after a few days of transaction, wait for the BTC to appear in my wallet. In addition to downloading and installing BTC Core, it takes a total of one week to get in touch with the "future of finance", but I don't care, BTC has affected me, and I began to question my cognition about economy, wealth, power, privacy, and psychology and coordinate everything.
This industry has fascinated me for a decade that seemed to mean nothing to me, how could a few immutable blockchains be so powerful as to sway my mind? Now I know, and it's because Crypto is the defining battleground of our generation, a hot headline in every media outlet in the world, affecting war, politics, law, culture, sex, and even the economy of entire countries. There have always been many predictions about the future of encryption, and no one can know where we should go next. I hold the "crypto status quo" paper in my hand, and I humbly come to you again (with the scars I once had), Let me share some predictions (maybe rambling is a better description) about the future of crypto, my crypto journey and some thoughts on my learning.
If there was one theme for my articles this year, it would be this: 2022, we are lost in the crypto world. Leverage, greed, and dishonesty have driven us so far that we are now left to "eat the fruit" and get back to the basic question: why are we here? where are we going? Why is this important?
For those who fell, those who fought, and those who are about to enter.
It has been ten years since I have been exposed to Crypto, and 2022 has brought me a lot, but the industry has also brought me a feeling that I have never felt before: Shame, shame for all 7 million+ people whose life savings have been wiped out. The newly grown children "played and stole, and disappeared.
We are here because Crypto inspired us, but they stole everything, even our reputation, and now we are faced with a choice, we can choose to accept everything, abandon crypto and enter a new kind of field, or go back to the beginning and build us What should have been: A freer world — one ruled not by fallible humans, but by transparent, just, unstoppable code.
Here are my 69 points:
1: Crypto will have more new users in 2023 than all previous years combined, Crypto adoption will continue to grow in inflation-stricken countries, and elsewhere as Web 2 companies, brands, and games finally integrate NFTs , many people don't know or care that they are entering the crypto space.
2: To me the graph is more important than the price, while the curve is trending poorly, all over the world, democracies are failing, some are crashing loudly, some are crying for help, some are resigned, but Crypto has provided a lifeline to many , and it will be more important than ever in the coming years.
3: I’ve been on the phone with at least 3 people whose lives have been directly affected by the wars in Russia and Ukraine, and I’ve heard stories of late night hikes across the border, deactivated bank accounts, crypto donations to the accidentally homeless,To some, encryption is a game, to others, an open, censorship-resistant web is a matter of life and death.
4: Four major trends for 2023:
-DeFi rebuilds CeFi products on the chain
- Enterprise adoption (probably Amazon, Apple, Google, etc.)
- Macro recession/cash capitalization
- Financialization of NFTs and dramatic expansion of use cases
5: Sometimes the goal is not to evolve in a direction that makes sense for you, but to evolve in a direction that makes sense for an adderall addict/influencer, before buying, imagine you only have 85% of your current IQ.
6: There is so much wasted/overlapped energy in crypto, if you are contributing to a project/chain that is doomed, you can sense its problems, now is the time to cut your losses and move on, the only one in the world So many people understand this field and power, don't waste your knowledge and skills sticking to a token with no prospects, turn your talents into enough to change the world level.
7: On-chain transactions are just "crumbs" rather than "bread" itself. I realized this when I saw BTC flowing out of exchanges before the FTX crash, I thought it was time to be bullish on BTC, in retrospect, many exchange failures were fraudulent, they sucked users' funds, assuming the chain The data on the above is falsified or misleading unless proven otherwise.
8: The people who underestimate the courage it takes to voice controversial opinions in public are the ones who say nothing.
9: A lot of people talk about how long it took tech stocks to recover after the dot-com bubble, but what about the few who bought after the bubble burst? The truth is that most of the leading tech stocks rose several times over the next two years,We will get a similar but more violent opportunity in 2023 (assuming the bottom has not yet come), many small households will become giant whales, and many giant whales will be "divided and eaten".
10: For someone reading this, inflation may mean less and less coffee, on the other hand, it may mean shooting squirrels for dinner, 28 countries around the world with inflation below 20% (45 countries with inflation rates above 15%),While we can’t get our head around regulatory issues, people everywhere are using crypto assets to feed and protect their families.
11: Big bucks don't go to silent onlookers.
12: I get horrified when I hear the term “Demand Destruction” because what it really means is people being fired every day, businesses shutting down, hard working employees going to bed hungry, and the only thing worse than that is a runaway currency inflation (since it affects people's appetites more than "demand destruction," which affects the poor the most), nonetheless,I don't think the Fed will turn around anytime soon as many hope, and if this process takes longer than expected and hurts more than expected, the last thing you want to do is "all in", but watch out , keep some assets in case the TradFi market has its own FTX moment.
13: Telegram has over 700 million users, mostly primitive, tech-savvy, privacy-focused futurists promoting their own junk tokens, and now, a crypto ecosystem, The Open Network (TON) growing savagely,Although TON token has not attracted so much attention for the time being, I expect TON and its NFT to usher in a huge explosion.
14: My 2022 looks like this: Make a lot of money which is to me, and then, like a greedy pig, I put those assets in Anchor so I have cash to pay my tax bill , Then, UST was decoupled, which caused me a huge loss. If I hadn’t been too lazy to use the Orion cross-bridge stablecoin to Anchor, things wouldn’t have been so bad. It took a few days to withdraw UST, and when I got back UST, it had already fallen 85%, which means I have to sell other tokens to pay my taxes, at least my tax bill will be less this year.
No Which DAO can, like PleasrDAO, epitomize the delightful overlap between two worlds, I'd say I'm biased (I worked on the project), but I see it as a collected collection, from legendary band Wu Tang Clan "Once Upon a Time in Shaolin", to Nadya Tolokonnikova's vial of blood in Puss Riot, to the computer Jimmy Wells used to write Wikipedia, to the original doge NFT, Snowden NFT, pplpleasr's Uni swap v3 NFT and more - a combination of ideas and boards, no one knows where Pleasr will go next, but as Willy Wonka puts it, Jamis Johnson (@PleasrDAO loyal user) likes to say: "We're going to do it soon Clear."
16: The crypto industry is like a shatterable glass house, as the four horsemen (Binance, Tether, Silvergate, and Garyscale) gallop through hell on foam steeds, with regulators crushing them like vultures, should any of them fall , others will fall with it, in the blood, a real opportunity will arise that allows you to sell everything and buy, I hope this will not happen, but we need to hold fiat currency just in case.
17: Digital ownership is one of the greatest innovations of our lifetime, let the baby boomers tell themselves that regulation, fraud, and falling prices will kill the industry, but they will perish before Crypto is perfected.
18: Creativity is a very mysterious state, you have a positive attitude towards everything, rationality is a knife, you can identify the part that should be negative.
19: The most xenophobic DAO in the world is the Fed, and their "tokenomics" aim to keep inflation low enough to prevent unrest, but high enough to wipe out government debt and make their friends rich .
20: NFT is looking for meaning, and soon, meaning will be given to NFT.
21: There has never been an industry in history that has given small people so many opportunities to fool "sophisticated" investors. As institutions trip up and withdraw from crypto, we must accumulate patiently. One day, we will return the color.
22: There is no more reality-distorting "drug" than wealth. I felt its pull during the last bull market. I'm partially grateful for the bear market. Life is a never-ending series of losses that can only be mastered Only by mastering them can you truly grasp the victory.
23: Crypto represents a red thread in human history: distinguishing life before and after. If something can be tokenized, the truth will follow, the only question is how quickly it will come.
24: One of the biggest opportunities in the crypto space is still BTC + DeFi, someone will eat this $330 billion pie soon, and it will be delicious.
25: The only thing that follows a fundamental trade is a 40-year-old stock with a 2% annual dividend, you want to apply them to a token that was issued four months ago?
26: The DAO is a reflection of corporate soulless life, and an organizational change enabled by crypto, a new search for meaning as tech deflation (and geo-arbitrage exploited by digital nomads) makes necessities cheaper Show up, and the end result is less loyalty to the company and more loyalty to the mission and goals, and if your mission and goals suck, so will your employees.
27: Lessons learned after SBF:
-Underutilized traditional media in Web 3;
-Low liquidity tokens in the hands of CEOs and VCs do more harm than good to their ecosystems, if you really want the community to grow and grow, let them take ownership of you;
- Every lie eats part of your soul.
28: Facebook, Instagram, and Reddit all move into crypto, now, NFTs are on the cusp of max adoption, all web 2 can get in (Amazon, Google, etc), NFTs may go parabolic (maybe price), but not minting , trading and exposure to new crypto participants.
29: The most prolific crypto users of the future will not be humans, but AI.
30: After all the crashes and uncertainty in 2022, even the word "crypto" has been tainted, NFT adoption could skyrocket, the word "crypto" fades into the background, instead brands will use Web 2 Friendly language like "points; credits; stars and verified", meanwhile, DeFi and our little subculture will power and profit from the infrastructure behind the scenes.
31: DeFi appears to be on hold until the U.S. gets more clarity on regulation, a trend that will continue to widen the divide between regulated DeFi and Wild West (unregulated) DeFi (like the surface web versus the deep or dark web). As with the divergence), DeFi "synthetics" with legal frontiers/use cases may emerge to move assets between two different systems (much like the guise of drugs).
32: Crypto has its own personal and corporate champions, it’s time for its political champions to come forward, once-obscure countries can rewrite their regulations to welcome DAOs and DeFi, they can introduce new immigration and tax policies, One day it will awaken and become a giant of the new economy.
33: For many years, we have believed that "institutional systems will come". Now, as FTX, Celsius, Voyager, BlockFi, etc. are replaced by TradFi (Fidelity, Goldman, ICE, Cash, etc.), "institutionalization" is coming, reliable, but boring, without passion, looking forward to the innovation of original DeFi and NFT .
34: With Web 2 and TradFi all in crypto, we will see more crypto projects in 2023 than all previous years combined.
35: Decentralized storage (NFTs in particular) is finally on the rise, after Meta developed Arweave (AR) for Facebook and Instagram NFTs, I suspect there are many other protocols starting to see widespread adoption.
36: The ve Token model will come to the fore in 2022, and the protocol’s own liquidity (POL) may become an increasingly important moat. Expect more projects to accumulate funds, which can be used for better execution and stable currency support And use cases we haven't even thought of yet.
37: Everything will lead to the Cosmos application chain, which is a powerful new development space, DYDX's move to the Cosmos chain shocked ETH maxis (as @defigginger said, call me "ETH mostly"), and verified customizable, scalable Interoperable appchains make sense, they are very flexible, some are optimized for speed, some for security, some for low/zero fees, etc.
I am very bullish on two projects in the Cosmosverse: @astroport_fi (as a flexible AMM/liquidity layer for Cosmos) and @mars_protocol (as a credit account primitive that aims to bring an FTX-like trading experience directly on-chain), looking forward to Huge innovation in the application chain field.
38: BTC will always prove that one brave coder can shake the foundations of society.
39: In just a few short months, I went from barely using Al directly to using it almost every day (all art here is from Stable Diffusion), and I found myself asking philosophical questions that I couldn't answer :What makes us unique when the sum of all knowledge and skills is available to all?
40: If you don't feel a little nervous when you are trading, don't continue to trade.
41: Cool headed new currency experts have exited crypto, with little or no net inflows you are now competing with bloody warlike apes, extend timelines, forget about everything for a while, or draw the knife out head on fighting.
42: Spend less time choosing tokens and more time choosing directions.
43: As a decentralized exchange protocol for native assets (i.e. swap BTC ATOM without going through an exchange), Thorchain (RUNE) remains my single largest holding, sold earlier this year A lot (much smaller than my holdings), but after the FTX crash, I bought a lot more, about $1, and besides, Thorswap (THOR) is one of the most active Thorschain+DEX aggregators in the space, if DeFi is in If a CeFi like FTX cannot rise after its collapse, it is hard to imagine what will happen to it.
44: The only line I remember from Jurassic World: Dominion is: "We're only three meals away from chaos?" When food shortages hit, you can see exactly what's in people's hearts idea.
45: Honestly, I missed watching the psychological warfare footage from @zhusu, @stablekwon, and even @FTX SBF, every industry has heroes and villains, now, we need more heroes rising.
46: Ease of use trumps everything, which is why Ftx Crypto.com and BlockFi's attract most users, if DeFi dominates the future, it must become easier to use.
47: BTC and ETH are now trading below their 2017 peaks, all latecomers, derided entrants to Crypto at any point in the last five years are now at a trough, and near-term prices are likely to head lower from here (Especially if a knight goes down) This is the bottoming process I've ever seen.
48: Let us observe a moment of silence for fallen projects in 2022:
-Voyager： 3.5 million
-Celsius： 2 million FTX: 1 million
-BlockFi： 572, 000
-Terra： 400, 000+
49: Perhaps for me, the biggest change in recent years is thinking from the perspective of probability. 12 months from now, how likely is XX Token to be bullish? Why? 60% or 80% chance? I only invest if I'm 70% or 80% more confident in a particular outcome, I don't waste time on things I'm only 55% sure of, and help me gauge my buy-in, e.g. if I'm 90% sure about something and I should be taking a much bigger position than I'm 70% sure about.
50: "Real yield" should not be a trend, but common sense, and if regulators can accept that crypto tokens are different from TradFi securities, crypto will be ubiquitous,Regardless, I expect many projects to progress in 2023.
51: The end game may be about wallets, the best wallets will eventually integrate everything you have in DeFi, they may become the future JP Morgan Chase, Fidelity, MasterCard, Cash App, Venmo, Apple Pay, Google Pay, etc., There is a huge opportunity in the wallet space,But more likely, the likes of Coinbase wallet and Trust wallet will lead the way.
52: Regulations are coming, I'm optimistic they won't be as tough as we thought before (after the relatively loose MiCA regulations in Europe), if that happens, the competition starts, I also think hold Fiat currency is also to prevent your own stupid behavior. In the end, nothing is impossible, especially if the fiat currency system suffers major adjustments, wars or new epidemics, such as banning PoW or criminalizing DeFi and DAO are low-probability events. But it's not impossible, and if it did, the winners would certainly be stripped off, and it would be an excellent opportunity to buy on fear.
53: As Twitter struggles to transition, I expect it to move to encryption - 5x harder than Instagram and Facebook. Twitter's user base has been dominated by Cryptobros. Its new CEO Musk not only has a background in online payment (via PayPal), but he also likes to call DOGE. As Musk digs deeper into the crypto space, I hope he finally sees the merits of Ethereum, Cosmos and other chains.
54: The Howe test should have its own exhibit in a museum, Asians laugh when it is mentioned, South Americans are not interested, only Americans recoil from it.
55: The impact of inflation is not evenly distributed, no matter which country you look at from the perspective of crypto is very dangerous, in inflation-plagued Argentina and Turkey, 33% and 54% of people respectively claim to be at least With a crypto transaction (h/t to Bankless), how is it possible for a government to prevent the adoption of this technology that prevents citizen starvation?
56: Non-public offerings annoy me. It feels like elitist bullshit. I’ve seen a few of them. It’s a dilemma, because there is too much demand for early-stage projects, and not enough entrepreneurs are willing to solve the problem. Since Why waste your time raising money from 100,000 strangers when you can raise money from 5 strangers? Not only can these 5 strangers help you along the way, but they are also much less likely to sue you.
57: A very simple way to get early access to a private deal that you think will change the world: Go for it, this applies to hackathons and incubators, or put together a deck and throw it out, if your idea is very Well, you're motivated, the money will find you, and in the end, you'll have a lot more token/equity than you would as an investor, can join startups through token distribution, and you can not only see how it works, but also participate in it .
58: Two things I like (but didn't expect) about private offerings: it's an opportunity to brainstorm with smart, brilliant founders; more valuable with or without economic rewards), because information is, and will remain, the currency of the field.
59: 5 projects I participated in/still optimistic about:
Societal：An application chain built specifically for the creation and management of DAOs, focusing on new DApp store tools, built and run on the Polkadot ecosystem @societal_xyz*
Infinity Keys：A gamification platform that helps brands build challenges and metaverse missions, similar to Ready Player One. @infinitykeys
TapiocaDAO：A full-chain money market based on Layer Zero, using Bentobox v2 to earn real eth income @tapioca_dao
Paragon DAO：NFT lending platform where P2E players can use their reputation as collateral to borrow in-game assets at zero cost - just repaying a portion of their earnings; @paragonsDAO
XDEFI Wallet: XDEFI is an extension of a decentralized wallet, users can receive, send, store digital assets, connect to any blockchain application; seamlessly exchange between protocols, access DeFi localization functions, and facilitate users to use a single Wallet monitors the entire DeFi strategy; @xdefi_wallet
60: You don't need to identify certain trends before the project starts, just spot the project early, follow them on twitter, and wait patiently for their actions.
61: If there’s one thing Crypto has taught me, it’s that incentives are more effective than punishment, and thousands of miners, node operators, stakeholders, developers, users, and founders would have no HQ or CEO Collaborate around the world, and if the world needs your project, and it fails, your motivation may be gone.
62: After seeing the many anonymous avatars I see on Twitter, realizing the gap between my assumptions about them (for better or worse) and reality, questioning every post and the intent behind every post — even This is mine.
63: Someday humans will look back at our monetary system as a make way for refined egoists (outdated and unfair) and that algorithms (not emotionally complex humans) should and will dictate our monetary system.
64: The worst fate is that we know that encryption will succeed, but are afraid of being eliminated before we reach Valhalla.
65: Two results of the end of a bear market: During the long side bottoming process, it erodes your will and forces you to sneak out of the field like a "snake"; it turns you into a "charizard" that can enter the next Cycle, are you the former or the latter?
66:Another substitute for "Alpha" is knowledge, which is the easiest way to make money, especially in the field of encryption,It's very scarce, rule a vertical chain or ecosystem, become a master of it, and in just a few weeks of intense study, you may know a particular detail better than the richest fund, time-strapped analyst, and vest-wearing MBA. By industry, once you have this knowledge, you can simply use this knowledge to identify good and bad markets.
67: Give me a choice, a strong dev team with bad tokenomics, or a bad dev team with strong tokenomics, and I'll tell you that's not an option at all, you take a strong dev team and watch them normal operation.
68: Never forget that there are many blocks in blood on nodes around the world, minted by people who are dead or imprisoned, or who are constantly afraid of missing the Crypto wagon. You develop a proprietary app on a XX network where you take a 1% fee on every transaction?
69: The reason why they think Crypto will fail: Crypto needs too much transparency and we humans like to hide the truth... not only from others but from ourselves, crypto makes us stare at ourselves in the mirror, power will never will be the same.
Dilute us, restrain us, imprison us, terrorize us, punish us, threaten us, imprison us, but we shall not die, for we are beasts of thought, with unparalleled vision,Original link
