JZL Capital Blockchain Industry Weekly Report No. 18

JZL Capital

特邀专栏作者

2022-05-04 14:04 (UTC+8)

This article is about 10839 words, reading the full article takes about 16 minutes

A quick look at key industry information for the week.

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A quick look at key industry information for the week.

This week's summary:

This week's summary:

- Is Bitcoin a tech stock? Since the beginning of 2022, BTC has shown an unprecedented high correlation with the Nasdaq index. What does this mean for the market outlook?

1. Last week's industry trends:

1. Last week's industry trends:

Last week, the currency market was basically in a sideways market. As of writing, Bitcoin closed at 39,500, down 2.3% from the previous week. On Tuesday, Turkey launched air and ground strikes against Kurdish Workers Party militants in northern Iraq, which led to an increase in the local demand for cryptocurrency safe-haven attributes, active trading volume, and currency prices rose. The currency prices briefly deviated from US stocks; Thursday, another In Turkey, Coinbase said it is negotiating to acquire BTCTurk, the largest local exchange. The transaction value may be about 3.2 billion US dollars. The local transaction volume surged again, and the currency price rose slightly. But such small fights are useless in the face of interest rate hikes. This Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the 50 basis point interest rate hike will be "on the table" at the FOMC meeting in May, and it will not be ruled out in the next The possibility of continuing to raise interest rates sharply at the meeting, the hawks’ remarks will inevitably lead to a sell-off in the market, one after another, this week, Bitcoin is basically in a sideways market compared with last week.

NFT is still the hottest existence in the market with few transactions. Last week, once Moonbirds was released, it has accumulated a transaction volume of 111,200 ETH so far. It jumped to the ninth NFT project with a total transaction volume in the world within a week. The floor price has increased from 2.5 The Mint Price of ETH has risen to 38.5ETH (an overview of Moonbirds will be introduced in the Metaverse section of this week). Afterwards, BAYC followed suit. After Yuga Labs announced the new project "Otherside" promotional video and announced that it would launch the metaverse project Otherside on May 1, BAYC's trading volume, including its token APE, rose to varying degrees.

JZL believes that people's pursuit of Moonbirds and Yuga Labs is not blind, but pertinent to an encryption project with a clear route, strong operational strength, and continuous improvement of intrinsic value. BAYC provides NFT holders with ApeCoin Clear and practical incentives, the acquisition of leading NFT projects such as Crypto Punks and Meetbits to expand the world view, and through the launch of Otherside, their NFTs are no longer limited to avatars and have more possibilities. As the story continues to be narrated, Yuga Labs The impact on the NFT industry will be unprecedented, and it once again proves that users buy NFT not only for "encrypted art" or "encrypted avatar", but for the unlimited possibilities of NFT tokens Pay the bill. In contrast, the first tweet NFT of Twitter founder Jack Dorsey was sold for 2.9 million in March 2021, and the holder listed it for $48 million this month. Until the end of the sale, the highest quotation received was only 1.163ETH, about $3633. For NFT, the future is far more valuable than the past.

Another company that has a relationship with NFT is Coinbase. Coinbase released its NFT trading platform CoinbaseNFT on April 20. Although it is only a Beta version, its trading volume on the first day is appalling, only 8.48ETH. It reached an all-time low of $131.05, a drop of nearly 48% from $252.37 at the beginning of the year. What is interesting is that Bitcoin has "only" fallen by about 17% from about $48,000 at the beginning of the year, while the Nasdaq has fallen by 18% so far. Bitcoin and the Nasdaq have shown a very high correlation this year, with a 30-day correlation of up to 0.97. Compared with the first quarter of 2021 or the fourth quarter of 2021, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter have shown a more obvious correlation. At the same time, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is continuing to decline, reaching about 45%. In a statistical sense, Bitcoin is gradually changing from a "gold-like" to a "technology stock" in people's mouth.

The high correlation will not be permanent. The key lies in the impact of short-term fluctuations on the correlation. For example, at the end of February, due to geopolitical incentives, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq experienced a short-term divergence. If the number of such short-term fluctuations increases, the correlation within a certain period It will go down accordingly, and the hedging algorithm acting on the correlation will ignore Bitcoin in the short term, then Bitcoin will hopefully get out of the current "Nasdaq black hole" and become a financial asset with independent attributes again. Such a change is expected to occur at the end of the year.

2. Macro and technical analysis：

2. Macro and technical analysis

After a short-term rise, the market continues to bottom out. We judge that it is still in a bottom-out situation in the short-term, and the trend is still downward. It is recommended to be cautious. After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in May, the market is expected to usher in a short-term rebound, and it is recommended to cautiously participate in the grid method of small positions.

BTC's short-term support is at $38,000, which is currently running along the lower track of the Bollinger Band.

The Nasdaq index should drop to a new low for the year during this decline.

1. Technical indicators:

1. Technical indicators:

1) Ahr999: 0.88, the short-term cost performance is gradually reflected, if it continues to fall, there is a chance for a rebound.

3) Changes in the number of BTC addresses: the number of currency-holding addresses below 10 is increasing rapidly, and the number of currency-holding addresses above 10 is in a slow decline. Retail investors speed up their entry.

4) Changes in the number of ETH addresses: Taking the number of addresses with 100 coins as the dividing point, the number of addresses below 100 increases slowly, and the number of addresses with more than 100 coins is basically stable.

2. Summary:

We believe that the short-term opportunity is that after raising interest rates in May and shrinking the balance sheet, the market will likely usher in a wave of rebound as the bad news lands. However, in the medium term, it is still in a downward trend of sideways fluctuations, and light positions can rebound. , the overall position opportunity needs to wait for the trend.

3. Encrypted ecological tracking:

1）Sandbox：

1. Metaverse

•Sandbox purchased two Moonbirds NFTs with 350 ETH and 64.9 ETH respectively. Sandbox once bought a BAYC NFT with 740 ETH and displayed it in the alpha test. In the future, Sandbox may use Moonbirds, BAYC, etc. An NFT is presented in a world.

• The Sandbox announced that it will migrate all LAND to Layer 2 in preparation for the deployment and bridging of the Polygon network. The gas fee generated by this migration will be fully borne by Sandbox.

2）Moonbirds：

• MTR Corporation and Sandbox have established a cooperative relationship to build a virtual space based on the concept of railways and create an immersive experience through games. It is expected to be a simulation construction game similar to Railway Tycoon.

•Moonbirds has become the hottest NFT project with a transaction volume of 111,000 ETH in the past 30 days. Moonbirds is the PFP avatar NFT of the PROOF Collective project of the famous investor Kevin Rose, which not only provides identity recognition for the Proof community, but also provides other participants with admission tickets to the community.

•PROOF Collective is a private encrypted community focusing on NFT collections. It originated from a podcast founded by Kevin in March 2021. During this period, many well-known celebrities participated, such as Beeple, Sébastien Borget, etc. In December, the token NFT was launched, with a total of 1,000 pieces issued, MintPrice5ETH. Holders enjoy services such as participation in offline activities, early bird rights for NFT launch of cooperative artist projects, exclusive Discord channels, and receiving teaching. The price of PROOF once dropped to 1ETH during the release period, but now affected by Moonbirds and the community, the current floor price is 122.7ETH.

•PROOF holders have enjoyed three actual benefit events during this period. They are two NFT sales, and Moonbirds advance mint rights. ProOF holders of the first two NFT sales can mint related NFTs at a price of 0.05ETH, and the subsequent market increases were 120 times and 7 times respectively. And Moonbirds has risen more than 13 times from the floor price of 2.5ETH.

3) Yuga Labs

•In addition to the avatar function, Moonbirds also has some PROOF rights, such as joining the exclusive Discord (but separate channels from PROOF), obtaining air investment qualifications for follow-up projects, secondary copyright creation, early bird qualifications, etc. In the future, Moonbirds will also introduce the Nest to Earn method to control the number of market circulation, and launch related concepts such as Metaverse Highrise.

• Yuga Labs metaverse project Otherside will be launched on May 1st, and Otherside has opened a Discord channel. According to rumors, Otherside will have an auction of metaverse land, the auction will adopt a Dutch auction, and the starting price will be 600 APE.

4) Luxury goods giant LVMH, luxury goods giant Hermès, and American trading platform Fidelity Investments have tried the metaverse.

1）Polygon

2. Scalability expansion

• CCTV.com announced that it will launch the aerospace commemorative digital collections "Yangyang" and "Shishi" from April 21st to 24th. The distribution platform will be "Number One Collection". Not appearing in front of the public, this platform will also be the only sales channel confirmed by CCTV.

2）Scroll

•Polygon launched the Supernet chain, which is a developer-friendly chain that requires no hosting or operating costs, and aims to provide Polygon developers with more convenient development tools. Developers can choose to use Supernet Sovereign Chain or Supernet Shared Security Chain. The former only relies on one verification node to run, which also saves maintenance costs; the latter provides shared professional verifiers. At the same time, Polygon also plans to allocate $100 million to developers to support developers who want to build content on it.

•Polychain recently led the investment in Scroll, an Ethereum Layer 2 expansion infrastructure, with a financing amount of US$30 million. In addition to Polychain, Bain Capital Crypto was also involved in the investment. investment company) in March 2022 to launch a $560 million encryption ecological special fund.

•Scroll is a zkRollup expansion solution that will have an EVM-equivalent experience. Scroll's vision is to create an EVM-compatible zkp that is more friendly to developers and users. By using Scroll, Solidity developers can copy intelligence from Ethereum Contract code and deploy it on Scroll without modifying it. Technical details for Scroll will be announced in the coming months.

3）SKALE

• The Ethereum expansion protocol SKALE completed the V2 upgrade and launched a new Hub architecture. SKALE Hub is similar to Cosmos, anyone can create a Hub, and through SKALE V2, the chain on the Hub can directly mint ERC tokens or NFT at zero cost.

3. GameFi blockchain games

3. GameFi blockchain games

1) Ronin sidechain hacking attack (4) -- Binance intercepted a small amount of stolen assets, and the frequency of attackers' operations increased

•Review: Within 2 weeks of the attack, the attacker’s address transferred USD 20.72 million worth of ETH to centralized exchanges (FTX, Huobi) and transferred about USD 90 million worth of ETH to Tornado Cash through the multi-layer wallet structure.

• Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said on Twitter on the 22nd, "North Korean hackers began to transfer the funds they stole from the AxieInfinity side chain Ronin today. Part of the funds were transferred to Binance through 86 addresses, and Binance has recovered $5.8 million in stolen funds. Stealing assets.” Every move of the attacker’s address has been closely tracked, even if the operation is transferred to the centralized exchange through a multi-layer address structure (non-encrypted operation), it will face freezing.

• On April 24, the Ronin Network attacker's address transferred 33,568.152 ETH to the new address on April 24, and the current balance of the attacker's address is 61,253.4 ETH.

• In the past week, the attacker's address has completed 4 transfer operations in total, and the transfer amount exceeded 83,582 ETH, about 250 million US dollars. It is worth noting that the recipients are all new addresses. There is no further operation on the above new addresses. It is not ruled out that the attacker will only use it as an intermediate address. The next step is to Deposit to Tornado Cash to get rid of address tracking.

•At present, Tornado Cash has accumulatively stored 2,873,500 ETHs, which is enough to handle about 170,000 ETHs involved in this hacking attack.

•F1® Delta Time

2) Agency Tracking – Animoca Brands

F1® Delta Time (project token REVV), the racing project that AnimocaBrands used to focus on, has recently officially ceased operations at the end of March 2022 due to the expiration of its authorized cooperation with Formula 1 racing cars and the failure to renew the contract. The outage of F1® Delta Time has also brought serious damage to the REVV Motorsport ecology, and the price of REVV tokens has continued to decline recently;
In order not to lose track of the racing category, Animoca Brands acquired 100% of the issued capital of Eden Games SAS from Engine Gaming & Media (NASDAQ: GAME; TSX: GAME);

Eden Games was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in France. The company has extensive experience developing award-winning racing games for mobile, handheld and PC, including Need for Speed: Porsche Tour, F1® Mobile Racing, The Speed Club, Test Drive Unlimited and V Rally. And established long-term partnerships with more than 30 well-known brands in the industry including BMW, Bugatti, Porsche, Lotus, and Pagani;

AnimocaBrands will leverage Eden Games' expertise and capabilities to develop existing as well as new games within the REVV Motorsport ecosystem and bring to market a new range of blockchain-based racing games. Profitable and playable racing projects (not blockchain games made up of a few JPGs) will be more attractive in the market, and in line with GameFi's development path, it is possible to create the next "AxieInfinity" under AnimocaBrands ".

•In addition, AnimocaBrands continues to invest & cooperate in the fields of film and television, music, and sports, including:
Established MetaHollywood, a joint venture company with Planet Hollywood Group, to create a Metaverse community for movie lovers. Users will be able to interact in the Hollywood-themed metaverse, and can also use MetaHollywood’s native tokens in the community to purchase NFTs in the form of movies, posters, and clips;
Participated in the completion of a $120 million financing for Rario, a cricket NFT platform. Cricket is the second most popular sport after football, with more than 2.5 billion fans worldwide. By establishing an NFT platform, Rario enables cricket fans to interact with world-renowned players and capture the highlights of the game through blockchain technology;
Reached a 5-year metaverse partnership with the Australian Football League (AFL), and will cooperate to launch the AFL Mint brand and issue NFT. This NFT is similar to NBA TopShot, mainly recording the highlight moments in AFL men's and women's games;

SoundMint, a music NFT platform, announced the completion of a US$1.7 million seed round of financing, led by Animoca Brands, with participation from Castle Island Ventures, Focus Labs, Sfermion, Sky Vision, Tess Capital, and Goodwater Capital, with a post-money valuation of US$30 million. It is understood that this round of funds will be used to expand SoundMint's team, accelerate product development, and expand utility and brand awareness.

3) Important project – Game Space

•Game Space is the first one-stop GameFi service for large game companies, which solves the biggest difficulty for traditional game manufacturers to enter Web3.0, that is, the lack of blockchain and smart contract development talents, and it is difficult to quickly recruit a team in the short term Experienced blockchain development team.

•Game Space commercializes challenging blockchain functions and services (including an exclusive Marketplace that can be embedded in games for users to trade NFTs). By providing GaaS commercial-level management background, game manufacturers can focus on the development of business applications without requiring It is dedicated to building its own GameFi infrastructure and completing the deployment of multiple mainstream public chains including BSC, ETH, SOL, and POLYGON.

• At the same time, Game Space provides multi-dimensional data statistical analysis for project parties, including wallet address data, NFT transaction data, etc. It can also deeply analyze users' investment and consumption behaviors, provide various advanced management tools, and help game studios focus on providing better services to users.

4) Important project – Certik

4.Platform public chain

4.Platform public chain

1) Dynamic summary of the public chain:

• Last week, the overall lock-up volume of the public chain (including Staking) dropped from US$184.6 billion to US$181.2 billion, with a small change of less than -2%. The top five are Curve, Lido, Anchor, MakerDAO, and Convex Finance, and the dominance of Ethereum applications is still strong.

•Horizontally comparing the locked positions of various public chains, the proportion of Ethereum continued to decline, from 52.90% last week to 52.70%. The top five public chains have not changed from last week, among which Terra has risen again by 7.9% from last week. Although the currency price is in a downward trend, the ecological foundation continues to strengthen, and it has stepped out of the independent situation.

• The public chains with the largest increase this week are Aurora and Parallel. The reasons for the increase are the development of the native stable currency transaction project (Curve-like) Bastion and the launch of AMM transactions.

• Aurora is an EVM expansion network based on NEAR. For Aurora itself, last week it cooperated with Immunefi to launch a bug bounty program, which mainly covers rainbow bridges, governance funds, smart contracts, etc. For smart contract vulnerabilities, the bounty amount ranges from $1,000 to $6 million depending on the threat level of the vulnerability; for websites and applications, the bounty amount ranges from $2,000 to $100,000 depending on the threat level of the vulnerability. Further improve its own capabilities in terms of safety.

• Bastion is a lending and stable exchange protocol built on Aurora, NEAR's EVM compatibility layer. Building on Aurora, Bastion was able to create an autonomous rate engine with optimized capital efficiency, low-slippage swaps, fast transactions, ultra-low fees, precise clearing, and leverage the fundamental UX benefits of NEAR.

•Bastion strives to become the liquidity foundation of Aurora, superimposing income through Stableswap and Lending. Since launching a month and a half ago, Bastion has amassed over $600 million in TVL and encompasses most of the stablecoin liquidity in the NEAR/Aurora ecosystem. With the imminent launch of $USN, Bastion will be strategically positioned as the foundational DeFiLego to facilitate the adoption of NEAR's native stablecoin initiative. At the same time, it also launched BSTN governance tokens, with a total of 5 billion pieces, 15% of which will be allocated to investors, 25% will be used for team members and consultants, 30% of tokens will be used for liquidity mining incentives, and 30% will be used for Protocol treasury.

•Bastion completed a $9 million Series A financing last week, led by Three Arrows Capital, with participation from FTX Ventures, Jump Crypto, Jane Street, CMS Holdings, and Crypto.com Capital. Bastion founder N^2 said that Bastion plans to further expand its ecosystem with new financing. To this end, the program plans to recruit for marketing and business development functions. We will also set up a column for stablecoins in future columns, so stay tuned.

•Since Parallel Finance launched the multi-functional, one-stop DeFi platform “Super App” based on the Polkadot ecosystem in March this year, it has attracted many investors. Recently completed an angel investment of $5 million on April 5, led by Coinbase and StarkWare. On April 15, Parallel Finance AMM (Automated Market Maker) was officially launched, and users can start trading.

2) Fundamental layer investment:

• On April 19, Flipside Crypto, a blockchain data analysis company, announced the completion of $50 million in financing. This round of financing was led by Republic Capital, True Ventures, Galaxy Digital, Terra, Dapper Labs, M13, BlockchainCoinvestors, Collab Currency, Hashkey, Avon Ventures (Fidelity Investments' VC fund) and others participated in the investment.

• Flipside supports blockchain on-demand analytics to drive ecosystem growth and user retention. Through a free, open data platform, thousands of analysts can learn, collaborate and compete to solve analytical challenges through a structured rewards program.

• On April 19, Mytaverse, an enterprise metaverse infrastructure company, announced the completion of a US$7.6 million seed round of financing. This round of financing was led by Blumberg Capital, with participation from Baselayer Ventures, Correlation Ventures, and Accelerator Ventures. This round of funds will be used to accelerate product development, expand sales and technical teams, and further deepen interactions and strategic partnerships with brand owners. It is reported that Mytaverse has provided commercial metaverse solutions to enterprises such as PepsiCo, Zaha Hadid Architects, Dassault Aviation and packaging manufacturer Tekni-Plex. While the initial launch of the cloud platform focuses on meeting rooms, training simulations, interactive large-scale events and exhibition spaces, Mytaverse is being built for new multi-dimensional and cross-platform use cases, including brand engagement, NFT galleries, entertainment, human resources and Collaborative work.

3) Specific public chain ecology: Cosmos——Juno

•After Proposal#18 Harmony Proposal to end FUD was rejected by the community, CCN issued Proposal#19 Confirmation by CCN to agree to Unity Prop proposal in the Juno community, and continued to try to reconcile with the community, retrieve assets, and change the vote on Proposal#16 result.

• CCN stated in the proposal that it will seek an independent third-party audit and verify through KYC that the 50 addresses that CCN managed for customers and receive JUNO airdrops through pledged ATOM are real individuals, not CCN's "fictitious" wallets. Unity Prop is a draft proposal published by the Juno core development team in the community discussion area. It is suggested that the assets of CCN be transferred to a smart contract jointly controlled by the community and CCN, so as to encourage both parties to find solutions together and avoid destroying assets in a hurry. cause harm to the community.

•Proposal #19 has been rejected by the community (73% of the votes against it), and community members generally reflect their distrust and aversion to CCN. Some people think that CCN is actually a centralized exchange and should have been excluded from the airdrop, and said that CCN is eligible to initiate the proposal only after the Unity Prop is approved by the community.

• The giant whale obviously will not give up its efforts easily. It keeps posting comments and explanations on Twitter, hoping to reduce community concerns and reach a settlement. The passage of #16 led to a halving of the price of JUNO; at the same time, he expressed his inability to manipulate community votes or confront the community. The passage of Proposal #16 and the rejection of subsequent proposals are the best proof. But judging from Twitter's reply, community users don't buy it. It is generally believed that this person has violated the interests of the community by taking advantage of loopholes, and his words and deeds are inconsistent, so he is not trustworthy.

•The price of the native token JUNO fell to the position before the launch at the beginning of this year, and won a weak support at around 15 yuan, and stabilized; we believe that the price has a certain cost performance.

4) Specific public chain ecology: Cosmos——Osmosis

• The Osmosis community is currently voting for a cross-chain bridge service provider to access Ethereum. This proposal aims to select the Cosmos-Ethereum cross-chain bridge through community voting to bring Ethereum assets into Osmosis DEX. There are currently 4 optional cross-chain bridge projects, including: Axelar, Gravity Bridge, Nomad, Wormhole; you can also vote not to access the cross-chain bridge.

•Osmosis is the largest DEX in the Cosmos ecosystem and the public chain with the most active IBC activities. The current TVL is about 1.31 billion US dollars, and the monthly transaction volume exceeds 3.2 billion US dollars. The price of OSMO, the native token, has been falling since it peaked in mid-March. It has now fallen into the shock range of the previous box. The rate of decline has slowed down, and the price/performance ratio has begun to show, but it is still in a downward channel. It is recommended to continue to observe.

5. DAO Decentralized Autonomous Organization

1）DecentDAO

5. DAO Decentralized Autonomous Organization

• On April 21, Decent DAO announced the completion of a US$10 million seed round of financing, led by BlockTowerCapital and GSR, with participation from Cumberland DRW, Digital Currency Group and 1kx, with a post-money valuation of US$56 million.

•Decent DAO was launched by Decent Labs, the main purpose is to invest in and empower Web3.0 start-up projects. The project positions itself as a shared decentralized venture studio. In addition to passive investment, the organization hopes to empower projects by helping with development, tool support, and talent support. Decent Labs has more than 5 years of experience in developing decentralized finance (DeFi) solutions on Ethereum, while Decent DAO has a broader vision, hoping to build an open source decentralized system with tokens as the economic driver.

2) Cloud Country

• Nation3 DAO, a national project on the cloud, announced its tokens and economic mechanism. The token is named NATION, with an initial supply of 4,2069 pieces, 80% of which will belong to the community and 20% will belong to the team.

•NATION can be exchanged for veNATION by mortgage, and a certain amount of veNATION can be merged and minted into Nation3 DAO NFT as the identity symbol of the organization's citizens, with governance and other rights. The project was announced by Luis Cuende, the co-founder of Aragon, on Twitter on April 10, and published the "Statement Declaration" (see the 16th weekly report for details).

•The conditions for receiving NATION token airdrops are to retweet their "Declaration of the Founding of the Nation" tweet and leave a message on the ENS address. The snapshot date is April 18. As of April 24, the price of NATION is about 3,000 US dollars. Recently, the price has fluctuated violently and the hype is strong. It is not recommended to participate in the investment.

4. JZL team news:

JZL Capital is a professional organization registered overseas, focusing on blockchain ecological research and investment. The founder has rich experience in the industry. He has served as the CEO and executive director of many overseas listed companies, and has led and participated in eToro's global investment.

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