Texas Hold'em, Werewolf Killing and the Art of Venture Capital

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ZhenFund (ID: zhenfund)

"I've seen a two-legged toad, but I haven't seen an investor who doesn't play poker"

"I've seen a toad wearing glasses, but I haven't seen a post-90s investor who doesn't play Werewolf"

——"Mr. Toad"Although the above two famous sayings are purely fabricated (don’t listen to the wind is the rain), they are enough to describe the popularity of mental games with important social (look) and social (face) attributes such as Texas Hold’em and Werewolf Killing in the investment circle in recent years. . Staring at the screen in chess, Go, and even StarCraft 2 canget it done

In the game, human beings can hardly escape the fate of becoming a scumbag in front of AI, while poker and Werewolf emphasize real offline interaction, focusing on the detection of players' micro-expressions and even the speculation of each other's behavior and psychology The analyzed game becomes our last stand in the battle between humans and AI.Master Qiao once said,Creativity is nothing more than the ability to find connections between things

What needs to be stated in advance is that the poker and werewolf killing techniques mentioned in this article are only from my short experience in pecking games in fish ponds and vegetables. Please click to close immediately for all high-end players. In addition, it is necessary to declare in advance that the investment experience mentioned in this article only comes from my more than one year of experience in small funds, please first-line fund partners...

AX-Kickermatters

first level titleA lot of Shark players teach us rookies that there is nothing to be proud of with an ace, and that if the Kicker (another card) is small, it is fine to fold pre-flop (before the flop).

You can't play if the flop really comes out with an A. If you have A4 in your hand, if someone else has an A and any other card, you will be far ahead, and you will not dare to accept a random raise.As an early investment institution, my fund has always emphasized the importance of founders, which is often referred to as "investment".We pay attention to all aspects of the founder's ability because we firmly believe that great businesses are created by great people. In the last year, we also changed "investing people" to "investing cattle"

, is to vote for those big cow founders who make people want to kneel at the first sight, that is, A-level talents.In addition, we have also deeply realized that two fists are hard to defeat four hands, and a hero cannot stand up to many people. As the saying goes, there are green hills outside the mountains, buildings outside the buildings, and there are people behind capable people.

Sometimes an A is not enough, it depends on whether the No. 2 founder is also good enough to be called "Niu Er".The reason is that a truly powerful founder and CEO should have a strong influence

So we not only have to cast a card with an A, but also a card with an A and a big kicker.

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9Ts-Take one point and don't count the restBut you can’t just play big cards. A perfect all-round entrepreneurial team is hard to come by, and no one really only plays AA KK AKs (AK of the same suit).And often like 9Ts (9 and 10 of the same suit) this kind of smaller combo or flush combo

, which is the "structural card", is easy to become a big card if you play it well, such as a flower and a success.

In 2012, when we decided to invest in Yitu Technology, although the commercialization of artificial intelligence in the security field faced huge challenges, we knew that the founders Zhu Long and Lin Chenxi were not only top genius scientists in this field, but also high school classmates. The matching is seamless (the same suit and consecutive cards). Based on this, we made an investment decision, and today Yitu is already a star-level unicorn in the field of artificial intelligence.

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55 - Ambush

I have always believed that there is a similar logic in early investment. We should look for thunder in the silent place. The really huge opportunities may be hidden and ignored.

whenwhenquick worker

When it turned out, many investors who were pampered in the capital of Shanghai and the imperial capital were extremely surprised. They never imagined that the boring people in the third-tier cities could burst out with such a strong vitality. However, in fact, Kuaishou has never "turned out". The people he serves and the needs of these people have always existed, but few entrepreneurs or investors can perceive it.And our most recent investmentbeauty articles, is also meeting the huge needs of a neglected population.In fact, it was in the circle of friends of an elder nearly 30 years older than me that I saw the beauty of this product for the first time and immediately realized its beauty. Zhen is also working with the founding team of Meipian Investment decisions were quickly made after the exchange. Just as Kuaishou seized the neglected crowd in second- and third-tier cities and rose rapidly, Meipian definitely has a chance to become a national-level product.

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Don't be intimidated by the valuationOn a table where everyone's hands are loose, don't try to see the flop at a cheap price.

It's like a large amount of capital pouring into the early investment industry in the past period of time, making many early project valuations ridiculously expensive.However, a very simple truth is that if you have AA in your hand, no matter how many people push all in before the flop, you should call it, right?。

And in early investment, if you really encounter a project that feels extremely awesome, you really can’t care about the valuation

There are many sad stories behind this. It is rumored that a big guy gave an offer of 15 million when Toutiao was valued at 20 million, but it was not negotiated; become. Dreaming back at midnight, I don't know how he will feel when he thinks about the entanglement about valuation at the beginning.

We call this kind of project Win-at-all-price. An extremely awesome founder and team found us with a dream he firmly believed in, and valuation is really a secondary matter.

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State is more important than logicFamous anchor and "National Service Wolf King" JY often talks about one thing. In the game of werewolf killing, most people are analyzing the corresponding logic behind everyone's words and actions, but in fact, after everyone knows how to play, it is logical There may be an anti-logic behind the anti-logic, and there is a positive logic behind the anti-logic. The chain of suspicion is endless. Analytical logic is actually useless at all. What can really tell whether a player is a good person or a werewolf is the state he shows. See if he is nervous, abnormal, subconsciously looking for a wolf or God, etc.

That is, state is always more important than logic. This sentence has always been my standard. And this reminds me of the debate on the weight of judging people and things in investment.

I often ask some colleagues in the same industry, and even friends of some funds at a later stage, "Is it really possible for investors to understand this industry better than the entrepreneurs who want to invest?", I was surprised at how often I heard the affirmative answer "Of course." , that’s what we do.”I figured there must be something wrong,There is no reason that an investor who has done industry research for a week, a month, or even accumulated for many years can understand better than an entrepreneur who has decided to devote all the resources he has accumulated and the rest of his life to one thing. what he's going to do

. Industry research can sometimes help investors to pass a project: "I think what you said is wrong" (not to mention that this is often because investors actually have a half-knowledge), but it can never help investors decide to invest in a project: "I think what you said is wrong." "Everything is right" is far from enough, "I think I can't keep up with what you said", "Damn it, I didn't think it was like this before" are the basis for supporting investment decisions.。

We emphasize that investing in people is more important than investing in things, because in a great cause, the factor of direction is actually insignificant compared with the factor of people

When Ma Yun and Ma Huateng Bezos took their products with tens of millions of users (not the earliest) to seek investment, compared with their final achievements, the track analysis was still insignificant and even a bit ridiculous.

Can a senior industry analyst tell me that a Yellow Pages company that puts corporate information on the Internet can eventually connect all merchants and customers in the world? Can you predict that a company that makes chat tools recently made a game with a DAU of 100 million? Can you even guess what an "Internet bookstore" defines as a cloud service by selling its excess computing power?

Therefore, there is nothing embarrassing to admit that logic is really useless sometimes. Just remember the following three principles:

1. The team matters

3. When the above two points contradict each other, forget 2

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don't paddle

The most fearful thing about playing werewolf is to meet such players, "ah, I'm not very good at playing, and I can't see anything, so I'll just pass it."

There is really no other way for this kind of people except to be voted out. Being a good person can't make a contribution, and being a bad person will silently stay until the end. If you don't vote them out, can you keep them for the New Year?So everything is possible, except for paddling.

, No matter what you think, whether you resign or not, you should say it directly.Investors are only respected for one thing, which is conviction bet.

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Most replays are useless

Three cobblers are better than Zhuge Liang, and the only person in this world who is more than a cobbler is Zhuge Liang after the fact.

The general rhythm of playing Werewolf is to discuss the rules for half an hour, play for half an hour, and discuss for an hour and a half who carried and who was stupid just now.Although we should respect the review, most of the time it is actually an afterthought. We often reflect on how to operate next time from the opportunities we missed and seized at the beginning.However, in fact, I did not make too many truly correct predictions at the beginning, nor did I take any actions. I just distorted the once ambiguous concepts as much as possible and made predictions about everything a long time ago.Let’s admit it frankly, when we first voted for shared bicycles, no one would have expected it to become such a hit.Inke

I'm not advocating agnosticism, but I occasionally feel that instead of constantly reflecting on the past, it is better to spend more time looking for the future.

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<chicken soup>Either choose the one you like for fun, or choose the one that suits you for utilitarianism.

secondary title

<chicken soup>Being lucky is better than being smart. You are lucky, you are lost. The probability of success has little to do with talent and hard work. May we all have a heart of awe forever.

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