Weekly Report on Cryptocurrency Positions: Restoring the "Planet of All Beings" in the Market Before the 5.19 Plunge

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CME Bitcoin Futures

On May 22, CFTC released the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (May 12-May 18). During the latest statistical period, the price of BTC fell by more than 14,000 US dollars. It is worth mentioning that after the statistical period ended Its first trading day is "5.19" worthy of being recorded in the history of the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, the sharp decline in the latest statistical cycle is actually just the prelude to the outbreak of bearish sentiment in the market, and whether various accounts have prepared for the market plunge in advance under this background is the key to this weekly report.

The number of total open positions (total open positions) further rose from 8,469 to 9,522 in the latest data. Although the market continued to fall, after more than a month of continuous reduction of positions, market participation has picked up. .

In terms of sub-item data, the long positions of the largest dealers further rose from 516 to 572, the short positions fell from 113 to 96, and the long-short two-way (hedged) positions further fell from 131 to 69. In the latest statistical cycle, large institutions have unexpectedly carried out net long positions. Compared with the two-way synchronous increase of long and short positions carried out by such accounts before the last wave of rapid decline, the 5.19 sharp decline of such accounts before the Net long position adjustment is a more "wrong" operation, and the "bad luck" of such institutional accounts in the past period of time is still continuing.

The long positions held by asset management institutions further rose from 383 to 393, and the short positions rebounded from 910 to 1,085. This value fell short last week and then rebounded quickly, hitting a record high. Two-way positions dropped from 112 to 0 . In the latest statistical cycle, asset management institutions have simultaneously increased their long-short holdings. However, it is worth mentioning that the short positions of such accounts have hit a record high again. , The attitude of asset management institutions has turned negative during the latest statistical cycle, and they made correct judgments before the market experienced an extreme dive.

In the latest statistical period, the long positions of leveraged fund accounts rose sharply from 2319 to 3279, the short positions rose simultaneously from 5419 to 6136, and the two-way positions further increased from 502 to 644. Leveraged funds once again increased their positions significantly during the latest statistical cycle. However, it is worth noting that although the current headroom of the total positions of such accounts has not changed, after the adjustment of the latest statistical cycle, many The proportion of single positions has increased significantly, so such accounts are also not keenly aware of the risk of extreme market declines after the end of the statistical period.

In terms of large positions, the long position further increased from 2154 to 2403, the short position rose simultaneously from 292 to 339, and the two-way position further increased from 114 to 226. In the latest statistical period, the large account has once again carried out a simultaneous increase in various positions. This type of account has not made a particularly clear unilateral judgment in the past two statistical periods. The continuous decline in the market has made this type of account that has previously continuously and accurately predicted the decline also begin to hesitate. For the 5.19 big drop Did not make too many active preparations.

In terms of retail positions, the long position dropped from 2237 to 1936, which hit a new low in nearly 45 weeks. The last time a similar performance occurred was in mid-July last year, and the short position further rose from 876 to 927. Retail investors once again became the biggest winners in the market. Before the 5.19 crash, they sharply reduced their long positions and made net air-conditioning performance enough to make this group of people who are often "underestimated" by the market proud, and the market plummeted The rapid spread of panic among such investor groups helped retail investors to control risks earlier.

CME Micro Bitcoin Futures

On May 3 this year, CME officially launched the Micro Bitcoin futures (Micro Bitcoin futures, MBT) contract. The MBT contract size is one-tenth of a Bitcoin, which is convenient for market participants to fine-tune Bitcoin exposure and enrich the flexibility of trading strategies. As of now, the position data of the micro-bitcoin futures contract has been updated for three weeks. Due to the substantial increase in the position of the contract during the latest statistical cycle, this new futures contract will be officially covered from this weekly report.

The total number of open positions (total open positions) in the latest period of data has skyrocketed from 2965 to 32865. Compared with the position data in the previous two statistical periods, this newly launched contract in the latest statistical period is truly However, since a single micro-futures contract only represents 0.1 BTC, compared with an ordinary contract with a contract representing 5 BTC, the current position size of such contracts is expected to increase significantly space.

In terms of sub-item data, the long positions held by the largest dealers fell from 25 to 0, the short positions soared from 298 to 9,231, and the long-short two-way (hedged) positions remained unchanged at 0. The idea of ​​adjusting the position of the dealer account in the micro bitcoin futures is completely different from the bitcoin futures mentioned above. In the micro bitcoin futures, this type of account has a clear net air-conditioning position. Realized risk control.

The long position held by asset management institutions remains unchanged at 0 contracts, the short position remains unchanged at 0 contracts, and the two-way positions also remain unchanged at 0 contracts. Asset management institutions have not yet made a layout on micro-bitcoin futures.

In the latest statistical period, the long positions of leveraged fund accounts soared from 1,042 to 27,406, the short positions soared from 2,812 to 19,344, and the two-way positions dropped from 1,009 to 452. Leveraged funds have significantly increased this type of new futures contract products in the latest statistical cycle. Due to the large change in data, the reference value has been discounted. However, it should be noted that in the process of position adjustment in this period, the accumulation of long positions by such accounts was significantly greater. Considering the sharp decline after the end of the statistical period, such accounts actually misjudged the trend of the short-term market .

In terms of large positions, long positions rose from 1547 to 1950, short positions rose from 477 to 946, and two-way positions rose from 0 to 69. The increase in holdings of large accounts in the latest statistical cycle is relatively limited, and they have not increased their holdings by more than 10 times like the above-mentioned types of institutional investors, and the two-way increase in long and short positions is also relatively similar, so this type of futures The reference value of contract data changes is limited.

In terms of retail investor positions, long positions rose from 1,580 to 2,988, and short positions rose simultaneously from 607 to 2,525. The increase in short positions of retail investors on micro-bitcoin futures is also very obvious. The huge difference between long and short two-way positions in the last statistical cycle has basically been smoothed out. Retail investors have a clear overall bearish judgment before the 5.19 crash , the sensitivity to this round of market risks is quite commendable.

CME Ethereum Futures

On 5.19, ETH also experienced a waterfall decline. However, considering that the decline of ETH in the latest statistical cycle was greater than that of BTC, the bearish warning of the market before the extreme dive occurred was more clear than that of BTC. Whether various accounts are more active in partial air-conditioning positions is the focus of attention in the performance of Ethereum futures adjustments in this issue.

The number of total open positions (total open positions) rose from 2157 to 2969 in the latest period of data, and the previous downward trend of this value has come to an end.

In terms of sub-item data, the long positions of the largest dealers increased from 0 to 2, the short positions dropped slightly from 42 to 41, and the long-short two-way (hedged) positions rose from 0 to 38. Theoretically, the rebalancing of dealer accounts in the latest statistical period is a net long rebalancing. However, due to the very limited range of changes, the impact of such rebalancing can basically be ignored. From the perspective of current positions of such accounts, short positions Still occupying an absolute advantage, so this type of account did not take too much risk when the crash occurred.

The long positions held by asset management institutions remained unchanged at 0, the short positions rose from 70 to 84, and the two-way positions rose from 10 to 14. Asset management institutions conducted net air-conditioning positions in the latest statistical cycle, and performed risk predictions very accurately before the plunge, and achieved positive returns with the help of increasing holdings of empty orders.

In the latest statistics period, the long positions of leveraged fund accounts further increased from 1,123 to 1,332, the short positions simultaneously increased from 2,089 to 2,264, and the two-way positions rose slightly from 106 to 109. Leveraged funds once again carried out multi-directional simultaneous position increase, and the increase rate of long-short two-way positions was basically the same. In the case that the proportion of short positions was clearly dominant, this increase in positions was the result of a sharp drop. The "negative impact" produced is relatively controllable.

In terms of large positions, long positions fell from 405 to 383, short positions rose from 44 to 52, and two-way positions dropped from 19 to 4. In the latest statistical cycle, the large accounts have carried out long-lost net air-conditioning positions. As the continuous rise of ETH over the past period has come to an end, large accounts have also changed their thinking on position adjustment very quickly, although the current long positions of such accounts are still far more than Short positions, but the adjustment of positions in the latest statistical period is already an active risk control operation.