From HYPE price call at $150 to full liquidation in just three days, how much credibility does Arthur Hayes have left?
- Core Point: BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has recently repeatedly made public price calls only to rapidly liquidate crypto assets (such as HYPE, WLD), achieving precise top-selling. This operational model undermines market credibility, and investors should focus on his on-chain behavior rather than his words.
- Key Elements:
- Arthur Hayes liquidated his HYPE position just 3 days after publicly calling for a $150 price target and making a bet agreement, causing HYPE to drop over 13.6% on that day, successfully selling at the $75.5 high.
- After calling for WLD to reach $10, he liquidated his position just 3 days later, causing WLD to drop over 20% that day, explaining it as "abnormal" pre-market pricing from SpaceX, an operation similar to "pump and dump".
- His reasons for selling include rising energy costs, AI stock IPOs, and potential policy shifts that could burst the AI bubble, but his actual actions contradict his statements, often "bullish one moment, fully liquidated the next".
- Historical examples show Arthur Hayes frequently liquidates quickly after public bullish calls. For instance, he sold HYPE for millions in profit one month after promoting it in August 2025, after which the token's price fluctuated downwards.
- Long-term investors summarize his pattern as "his words are unreliable, but his actions need monitoring." Entries should be cautious when following him, exits need to be decisive, but continuous manipulation will lead to a credibility backlash.
Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author: Golem (@web3_golem)
How much market credibility does Arthur Hayes still have? Recently, the "godfather of crypto perpetual swaps" and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has faced public backlash, with on-chain detective ZachXBT publicly questioning how much exit liquidity he has created using his followers.
Liquidating HYPE, NEAR, and WLD
Starting last week, Arthur Hayes repeatedly executed unexpected sell-offs at market peaks.
Arthur Hayes had frequently stated publicly that HYPE would rise to $150 in this cycle. On June 1, he even engaged in a heated argument with former Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani over the latter's criticism of Hyperliquid, placing a $100,000 bet with him. However, just three days later, Arthur Hayes announced he had fully liquidated his HYPE and NEAR positions, causing HYPE to drop over 13.6% that day. His sell-off indeed successfully topped the market; HYPE hit a new high of $75.5 on June 4 before declining steadily, now trading around the $62-$64 range.
Besides offloading HYPE and NEAR, Arthur Hayes also liquidated ZEC and WLD. His sell-off of ZEC might be justifiable following the Orchard Pool attack, but dumping WLD resembles a classic "KOL pump and dump" scheme—early accumulation, public shilling, and finally selling into the rally.
From publicly shilling WLD to dumping it, Arthur Hayes only "kept up the act" for three days. On June 3, the day before selling HYPE, Arthur Hayes publicly called for WLD to target $10, claiming it would become an alternative investment for those unable to directly participate in SpaceX equity deals. Following the hype, WLD surged over 35% that day. But by June 6, Arthur Hayes changed his tune, stating he had sold all his WLD, citing "abnormal" pre-market price action of SpaceX. This flimsy explanation caused WLD to plunge over 20% that day.
The difference between Arthur Hayes and "third-rate KOLs" is that he writes elaborate essays, often offering seemingly reasonable justifications for his moves from a macroeconomic and top-down perspective.
On June 9, Arthur Hayes published a long-form article titled Reality Test (takes about 20 minutes to read fully) explaining his recent actions. He argues that three factors will burst the AI bubble: rising energy costs due to restricted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the IPOs of three major AI stocks (SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI), and Trump pivoting against AI for the midterm elections.
Given this, his family office Maelstrom holds significant positions in US-listed energy producers and has sold off AI-related stocks and non-core crypto assets, holding only BTC and ETH.
Don't Listen to Arthur Hayes, But Watch His Moves
Arthur Hayes' articles are adept at using extensive economic data, charts, and even political and historical perspectives to validate his arguments, often leaving readers impressed. But when you buy into his words and invest real money following his lead, he might announce a full liquidation and turn bearish the next day, as if completely forgetting what he said the day prior—synchronizing a blow to your portfolio.
Such maneuvers are common. As early as 2025, Arthur Hayes repeatedly pulled off the "bullish one moment, sold out the next" routine. The most classic example remains HYPE. In August 2025, Arthur Hayes touted HYPE during a speech at WebX Japan, claiming the token had up to 126x upside potential (Odaily note: price was $45.9 that day). Yet just one month later, he announced he had liquidated HYPE and made millions in profit, citing the need to avoid token unlock risks.
This sale by Arthur Hayes occurred precisely at the peak of the previous HYPE cycle, after which the token declined with volatility. He didn't start buying HYPE heavily again until mid-January 2026. Looking at the trend, his buy-in point turned out to be the bottom of that cycle.
Similar examples include ETHFI and ENA: publicly bullish calls followed by unexpected sell-offs, resulting in precise top-outs. (Related reading: You Ran Again! A Look Back at Arthur Hayes' Top-Timing Exits)
Long-time followers of Arthur Hayes have distilled a methodology: Don't listen to what Arthur Hayes says, but watch what he does. Follow cautiously on accumulation, but sell decisively when he exits.
However, if Arthur Hayes continues to pull these stunts—especially cases like manipulating WLD's price swings—no matter how well-disguised the excuses, his market credibility will suffer. It's akin to a crypto version of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf"; eventually, Arthur Hayes will face the backlash.
One statement in his latest article rings true: "I am still a full-blown gambler." And gamblers rarely end well.
