Bottom rebound, is the market down over?

Any capital market is a field of human nature. When it is beautiful, thousands of fans are blessed, and all kinds of icing on the cake are whitewashed. How to change the world, how to make technological progress, and which projects will be raised how much? When frustrated, all kinds of comments make complaints, and everyone pretends to be a saint to step on it. I don’t know if the demand for media development accounts for a higher proportion of these news, or the pessimism of the market causes the sour grapes who spread negative emotions to come out again. up. Of course these are not important,Under extreme market conditions, it is extreme treatment. Optimists are happy to see optimism, and pessimists are always pessimistic。

And we belong to those without emotions, not believers in the market, but believers in trends, believers in technological development, and believers in the Austrian School of Economics!

butWe look at the news and ask the logic, see the logic and ask the reason, don't listen to other people's judgments, only look at the data and the news itself，

Going back to the news itself today to verify our previous understanding of the policy:

"Economic Information Daily: RemediationVirtual currency hypewithout delay

The Economic Information Daily published an article today "It is urgent to rectify the chaos of virtual currency speculation". According to the article, recently, the China Internet Finance Association and other three associations jointly issued the "Announcement on Preventing the Risk of Hype in Virtual Currency Transactions" (hereinafter referred to as the "Announcement"),Tips on virtual currency trading hype risk, emphasizing that virtual currency transactions are illegal financial activities. On May 21, the Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council further requested to "crack down on Bitcoin mining and trading." In the next step, the financial management department should increase the crackdown on illegal mining and trading activities of virtual currencies, maintain the normal economic and financial order, and create a better environment for the official launch of my country's digital renminbi.For illegal participation in virtual currency transactionsInstitutions and platforms that conduct publicity, hype, or provide support services for them should cooperate with the judicial department to deal with them in a timely manner, increase the cost of violations of laws and regulations, and increase the deterrent effect of rectification activities.For Bitcoin mining projects, all localities should be fully cleaned up and shut down in time。”

Looking at the bold black part above, everyone will know that the first prevention is illegal participation in virtual currency transactions and bitcoin mining projects. The other parts are mainly emphasized and reminded, not shut down, blocked, or seized.High-level executives are also making rational regulatory voices, and there is no one-size-fits-all like 94, which shows that everyone is gradually aware of issues such as the accuracy of supervision。

Some high-level financial researchers said that if Bitcoin wants to circulate in the market on a large scale, it must be subject to regulation, and regulation is indeed a long-term benefit to the industry. The main Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are closely connected with the financial market and are closely related, so they have to Accepting such supervision, the financial market is the unshakable foundation of any country.

Let us predict and analyze here, one of the next two biggest variable factors (regulation and monetary policy), regulation has been gradually expected to be implemented, this part of the panic will not trigger another market crash,With the gradual landing of regulation, the market will gradually become positive as the bad news runs out, but it will take a certain period of time, not right away, just saying that the market has passed the period of severe shocks under the conditions of this variable factor, and the period of slow changes will follow.

But another variable that has yet to be determined, and which has a bigger impact, is the Fed's expected rate hikes. If the Fed fails to raise interest rates, the market may have a positive rebound, but the rebound will not be too large, because it will always be a sword of Damocles hanging over the entire market.Sooner or later, interest rates will be raised, and the rebound is the time to lighten up。

The big strategy above is very clear.

BTC market analysis

BTC market analysis

Looking at the 1H-4H cycle, the decline is heavy, some people take delivery, the rise is immeasurable, and no one pushes the market. It shows that those who enter the market are collecting chips first rather than pushing up the market. In the short term, they may be affected by market acceptance and will not continue to fall. ,butETH market analysis。

ETH market analysis

Consistent with BTC, the amount of decline has increased, and the amount of increase has increased compared with BTC. The bottom of the impact of regulatory policies has gradually emerged.Long-termists can gradually build positions in this positionDeFi sector

DeFi sector

The entire DeFi sector is currently rebounding the most. I haven't thought about the logic very clearly yet, but one thing is known, that is, the decline of ETH will reduce the cost of DeFi; another reason may be that DeFi was affected by the previous decline. The impact is the biggest. I still need to spend time thinking and analyzing this point. Once there are results, I will report them in time. At present, the rebound is the largest, and we have to pay attention.

(1) LINK - the leading oracle machine, with a long-term layout foundation;

(2) UNI——DEX leader, with an absolute market share basis, coupled with the blessing of UV3, the future market size will be far ahead;

(3) SNX - the leader of derivatives, a category supermarket of DeFi, linking the world of traditional finance and currency rights, worthy of long-term follow-up;

Other 1inch, INJ, all deserve our attention. Compared with BCH/XRP/EOS/the application of these DeFi markets is more direct,DOT/KSM market analysis。

DOT/KSM market analysis

It has been analyzed before that DOT/KSM has a very high degree of control, either against the trend to pull the market, or to take advantage of the trend to strongly wash the market. Obviously, I am a market maker, and I can’t go against the trend, unless the market is not in a real downtrend. No banker has a bodhisattva heart, and they are all attributes of the king of Hades. You can see that the recent unspecified targets will know that people who come out with kind eyebrows and good intentions are actually They are all snake-hearted, the target has no bottom line, and the field of interest is the field of interest.

I went straight to 13 last night, and then rebounded in large quantities. There is no need to increase too much, and you can take advantage of the trend to reduce costs, soThere is no need to report too high hopes for the rebound space, no one will be rescued. Be sober, listen to us before, sell high and buy low, and now you won’t lose money. It’s really sad, waiting for the bottom to oscillate back and forth, this is the attribute of DOT.Only half of the bull market can earn DOT, remember this formula。