Rebound or reversal, how the follow-up market will go, this is our deep thinking

The past two days must have been a tormenting two days for all those who held positions and increased their positions at low positions.Such a dishwashing may be a disaster for all participants, but it may be a long-term benefit for the development of the entire market. Yesterday we briefly analyzed that the basis of this decline is different from last year's 312,17 decline, but the incentives for the decline are the same:

（1） Huge new retail investors enter the market, hyping various zoo air coins, causing rhythm chaos and capital chaos in the entire market;

（2）Regulatory policies in various countries are gradually promoted, and policy risks are further increased；

（3） The money-making effect of old retail investors is obvious, but also immersed in the joy of making money;

(4) withUpgraded Inflation Expectations, Economic Recovery and Epidemic ControlAnd other reasons make the monetary policy have to move towards the direction of marginal tightening.

If there are various other reasons, then all point to the impact of the tightening of currency margins on the market. No matter how risk-averse and crazy the cryptocurrency market is, the direct reason for its rise is the promotion of currency. If China's currency shrinks due to a series of factors such as policy and market, then the currency market will face a period of deep correction and shock.

In this decline, I believe there will still be many big analysts who will still hold the long-term bull market and long-term views. Of course, we also hold the same view. The reason is that only those who are optimistic and call the bulls have enough attention. But is our purpose blindly seeking more attention? At least I have not enjoyed this bonus, so in essence, we are pursuing a correct investment thinking and operational feedback. Making money is of course the first priority of our operation and investment, but I still have the illusion of a lighthouse in the currency circle. Of course, this kind of fantasy is actually impossible. Just like the operation of adding, reducing, clearing, and reloading that we reminded before, the reminders of risks and opportunities, in fact, no one can keep up with the rhythm, just like Descartes said "I think, therefore I am", Wang Yangming's "unity of knowledge and action", I can't implement my own thinking and strategies 100%, so what about our audiences and fans, how can you do it?

So I apologize to the friends who scolded me before. It is normal for you to be unable to do so (I let you lighten up and clear your positions). The problem is that my "ego" and your "ego" are not the same Persistence, I can't force everyone to read the article to keep up with my pace.

Having said so much nonsense, what I want to analyze today is how should we look at the next market and how to operate?

First of all, let’s look at the turnover rate in the past two days. I believe that few people will pay attention to this indicator. Everyone is talking about the idea that it is only when the tide goes out that we can know who is not wearing pants.

The turnover rate is to know which currency has the most retail investors and the most risky currency, and we must always pay attention to its risk. The higher the degree of control, the lower the turnover rate in this sudden situation。 

Let’s compare the several currencies we analyzed (the following data comes from the statistics of each platform):

From the data in the above table, it can be seen thatThe lower the turnover rate of mainstream currencies, the smaller the volatility, indicating that the market consensus is still there, which provides a reference for our later configuration. BTC/ETH is still the mainstream currency we configure。

However, LTC/EOS/BCH obviously has a large number of retail investors, and the growth trend in the later stage of the market will be affected by too many retail investors, making it difficult to effectively control the market, and the account volatility will be very large, which is not conducive to the allocation of shocking markets.

However, although doge/dot/ksm fluctuates greatly, the turnover rate is not high, and the rebound rate is large. It shows that the degree of control on the market is still very high. In this case, we must pay attention not to enter the market in a bear market. The market with a high degree of control may deliberately take advantage of the market to kill the oversold trend for a forced bloodbath, and then spread it for themselves. low stakes. If it is a volatile market, the dealer may walk out of the independent high-volatility and turbulent market. At this time, you cannot go long without thinking, butYou should be brave to sell high and buy low。 

Finally, we give our judgment on the future market trend: based on the expected judgment of the macro analysis of the future market (I have analyzed it before, the supervision will be increased, the monetary policy is likely to be tightened and other reasons),The following market is likely to move towards a relatively volatile structural bear market(It is also the corresponding to the structural bull market), why is the structure facing the bear market?

That is to say, most of the time the market is pessimistic, and the participants will flee the market at any time like a frightened bird. Occasionally, some market hotspots and specific applications will appear, which will drive some rhythm of the market, butThe big pies are still in a volatile trend as a whole. At this time, the market should take the application-oriented ETH as the wind vane, to operate. Don't mess around blindly, and use hot short-term operations as the main operating guideline.

This is only my current opinion, and it depends on the expectations of regulatory policies and monetary policies. If expectations become more optimistic, we will still actively enter the market again. We can slap ourselves in the face, but it will not affect our purpose of making money.The market is changing rapidly, and we only use the current point of view as a guide. If the market changes, our point of view will change to a certain extent. I hope all investors and friends know that the current pessimistic view, don't look at the current rebound.

The current strategy is still to rebound and reduce positions with positions, increase positions when falling, and reduce positions after rebounding, so as to reduce the cost of holding positions.The cost of holding positions is the only criterion for good or bad mentality。

Friends who don't have a position, wait for the market to clear up, and don't rush to make this little money.