Yesterday Little Bee compared the BTC data from the second half of 2019 to the present with the S&P index data.

In general, the correlation between BTC and the S&P index can be divided into three stages. The initial stage is the uncorrelated stage. In this stage, BTC behaves like a monkey market; from around March 12, 2020 to mid-October, BTC and US stocks appear A certain correlation has been established, and BTC at this stage behaves as a slow bull; and since mid-October 2020, BTC has almost no correlation with U.S. stocks again, and this stage is exactly the stage of BTC’s rapid rise.

However, affected by rumors of interest rate hikes and rising U.S. bond yields last week, U.S. stocks and BTC collectively fell last week. The little bee found that this simultaneous decline in the U.S. stock market and currency market seems to be repeating the plot of 312 last year. It is also affected by the macro environment, and the U.S. stock and currency markets also fell at the same time. The only difference is that the U.S. stock market and the currency market suffered a severe decline at 312 last year, while the decline in the U.S. stock market and currency market was relatively smaller last week.

However, last March was affected by the outbreak of the epidemic, and there is a high probability that this year will not be so bad.

Therefore, the little bee speculates that it may have been a repeat of 312 last week. Both the U.S. stock market and the currency market have experienced sustained and considerable gains, so a pullback and a shakeout are actually what the market needs.

From February 22 to March 4, there were 9 opening days in total, of which 7 days BTC fluctuated in the same direction as the S&P index.

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Washing up is still going on

Last weekend, a $190 million stimulus package was voted through by House of Representatives. Originally, the little bee thought that the faucet could be turned on, and the dollar was already on the way. After searching the information yesterday, I found out that after the House of Representatives passes it, there will be a Senate.

The Democratic Party, the main backer of the plan, hopes to pass it on March 14.

Therefore, in general, before March 14, that is, between this week and next week, the bill may still be pending.

Whether it can pass on March 14, we will continue to observe.

However, BTC fell from $58,000 to $43,000, rebounded to $52,000 and fell again. The amplitude of this shock became smaller and smaller, and the fluctuation period became shorter. This convergence pattern is quite obvious.

Little Bee believes that there may be a wave of dips next, and a rebound may only occur when it falls to a certain level.

Especially before the 1.9 trillion plan is passed by the Senate, there may be another drop. The experience of the little bee is that there is often a decline before all the positives.

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May be a slow cow after washing dishes

The Fed chair spoke again in our late night hours.

Powell acknowledged volatility in the bond market, while voicing concerns about tightening financial conditions and denying interest rate hikes. The attitude towards inflation is to expect inflation and be patient with inflation. Its forecast is to anchor dollar inflation at 2%.

If the Fed's monetary policy is effective, then the dollar will have a sustained and mild inflation next. The motivation is to stimulate economic development through this mild inflation.

Judging from the development of the epidemic, the real economy this year should be better than last year. And dollar inflation may not be worse than last year. So the next U.S. stock market may not be like the situation last year. Last year’s U.S. stock market rose a lot and was almost separated from the real economy. This year’s U.S. stock market growth may be more moderate and more practical. It may not even drop a bit now and then.

Judging from the development of the epidemic, the real economy this year should be better than last year. And dollar inflation may not be worse than last year. So the next U.S. stock market may not be like the situation last year. Last year’s U.S. stock market rose a lot and was almost separated from the real economy. This year’s U.S. stock market growth may be more moderate and more practical. It may not even drop a bit now and then.

If BTC and U.S. stocks enter a certain degree of correlation next, BTC may also enter a slow bull.

This kind of slow bull may not be in the same form as last year. Last year, both U.S. stocks and BTC were rising, so the rise of BTC was not too fast or tortuous. However, this year's U.S. stock market may not rise more than last year's U.S. stock market, which means that some speculators will turn to chase BTC, but they will quickly withdraw after BTC rises. Therefore, this year's BTC slow bull may be more tortuous than last year's, showing more dramatic ups and downs.

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(one)

(one)

If BTC has a certain degree of correlation with US stocks next, then we can refer to the situation from March to October last year.

Little Bee made statistics on BTC fluctuations:

Statistics show

In the first range, that is, the range where BTC is not correlated with US stocks, before March 8, 2020, there were no obvious rising days from Monday to Sunday.

In the second interval, from March September to October 18, 2020, BTC at this stage has a certain correlation with US stocks. Therefore, the opening and closing of US stocks has a certain impact on BTC. Therefore, it is more obvious that the probability of rising on Monday is the highest, and the probability of falling on Friday is the highest.

Furthermore, within this range:

The probability of a rise on Monday is the highest, and the average rise is relatively large, and the average fall is not too large;

The probability of rising on Tuesday is not obvious, and the fluctuations of rising and falling are relatively small;

The probability of falling on Wednesday is relatively high, and the fluctuation range of rising and falling is slightly larger;

The probability and magnitude of the rise on Thursday are relatively large, but once it falls, the magnitude of the decline will be greater;

The probability of falling on Friday is the highest, the rising range is small, and the falling range is small;

The probability of rising on Saturday is the highest, but the range of rising and falling is small;

The probability of a rise or fall on Sunday is half and half, but the rise is small and the fall is relatively large.

At present, if BTC enters the correlation range of the US stock market again, the above data may have a little reference value.

In the third range, which is the range where BTC and US stocks are almost out of anchor, the probability of rising from Monday to Saturday is not low, and the probability of rising on Tuesday and Thursday is the highest.

(two)

If one week is taken as the unit, Monday is used as the weathervane of this week, and the direction of fluctuations from Tuesday to Sunday is consistent with that of Monday:

In the first and third intervals, there is no obvious trend in the uncorrelated interval between US stocks and BTC. The most obvious is that the trends on Sunday and this Monday are opposite.

In the second range, that is, the range in which BTC has a certain correlation with US stocks:

On Tuesday, there is a relatively obvious reverse fluctuation with a high probability of Monday;

On Wednesday, it is relatively obvious that it fluctuates in the same direction as Monday with a high probability;

On Thursday and Monday, the same direction and reverse probability are half and half;

Friday is slightly more likely to be reversed than Monday;

Saturday is almost half and half too.

write at the end

write at the end

At present, BTC may be associated with U.S. stocks again, and the U.S. economic policy in 2021 should be pending. Therefore, in the first half of the year, at least in the near future, BTC may be more sensitive to U.S. economic policy. Before March 14, BTC may continue to wash up, and there may be another dip, and it may not necessarily fall more next week than last week.

With the implementation of the $190 million economic stimulus plan and the management of dollar inflation, BTC may be more tortuous, with ups and downs, and it is recommended to be prepared.

Perhaps by the end of the year, the implementation of macroeconomic policies will come to an end, and when there is no new influence, BTC may break away from the influence of macroeconomics and proudly follow its own market. It may be the top of this round of bull market at that time.