March 2020 is a day remembered in history.

With the outbreak of the epidemic, U.S. stocks melted several times in a short period of time, and the currency market plunged...

On March 12, 2020, both the U.S. stock market and the currency market fell off the cliff, which became the most memorable day for stockholders and currency lovers.

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Association Interval Hypothesis

Little Bee has divided the fluctuation of BTC into three stages in the past two years:

Phase 1, before March 12, 2020;

The second stage, from March 12, 2020 to October 16, 2020;

The third stage, after October 16, 2020.

In the first stage, the currency market rarely talks about U.S. stocks, and BTC is generally in the monkey market stage;

In the second stage, after the currency market and U.S. stocks fell simultaneously, the currency market began to pay attention to U.S. stocks and the U.S. election, and BTC was in a slow-rising stage;

In the third stage, after the U.S. election, the currency market began to pay less attention to U.S. stocks, and the entry of institutions pushed BTC to start a rapid rise.

Therefore, the little bee assumes that BTC has experienced three intervals in the past two or two years, which are:

BTC has nothing to do with the range of US stocks

The range related to BTC and US stocks

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Correlation Interval Statistics

Whether it can be established or not, Little Bee began to make statistics on the daily fluctuations of US stocks and BTC.

For fluctuations in U.S. stocks, choose the S&P index (the data source is Yingwei Finance), because the S&P index is more representative of U.S. stocks as a whole;

BTC fluctuates, and Little Bee uses the data of coimarketcap and bitfinex respectively (data source Yingwei Finance).

The statistical results are as follows:

It can be seen that before interval 1, that is, before March 9 last year (the Monday of the week of 312), the proportion of BTC and U.S. stocks fluctuating in the same direction was almost 50%, indicating that within this interval, BTC and U.S. stocks moved in the same direction and reversed. Volatility is roughly divided equally, and BTC is not correlated with US stocks.

However, in interval 2, it can be clearly seen that the date when BTC and U.S. stocks fluctuate in the same direction has risen, and more than 60% of the time, BTC and U.S. stocks fluctuate in the same direction. Moreover, Bitfinex data is more obvious than coinmarketcap data, because coinmarketcap is the average data of global exchanges, and bitfinex is an American exchange, and its users have become more sensitive to US stocks. This further shows that in interval 2, that is, from March September to October 16 last year, BTC has a certain correlation with US stocks. In this range, the rise of BTC is also relatively slow.

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may be associated again

Last week, affected by interest rate hike rumors and U.S. debt factors, U.S. stocks and currency markets fell again at the same time. From last Monday (February 22) to the present, there have been 7 complete working days. During these 7 working days, the US stock market opened. Except for last Tuesday (February 23), in the other 6 working days, both coinmarketcap and bitfinex showed that BTC and US stocks fluctuated in the same direction.

Therefore, last week's decline may be a repetition of last year's 312. After 3.12 last year, BTC has entered a correlation gap with US stocks. The data shows that now BTC may once again enter the correlation range of the US stock market.

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Shock washing will continue

BTC may once again enter the correlation range with US stocks, so the US economic policy is the focus of our next attention. There is a high probability that the release of the dollar will continue. but:

The $1.9 trillion stimulus package didn't quite pass. It was just voted through by the House of Representatives. However, the $1.9 trillion has not yet been released. So the current positive news for US stocks and BTC is nothing more than optimism in terms of news and sentiment.

Next, the $1.9 trillion stimulus plan will enter the Senate for a vote.

Therefore, from this perspective, there is almost no doubt that U.S. stocks should continue to fluctuate in a more optimistic range, while BTC will continue to wash up.

Until the US$1.9 trillion plan is passed, some US dollars will not enter the financial sector, and more US dollars will gradually concentrate from the consumer sector to the capital circle, and then enter the financial market. During this process, BTC will show a slow rise, even like the two waves this year, with ups and downs and zigzags.

write at the end

write at the end

What we have to do is, at this stage, pay attention to factors such as US stocks and the fiscal and monetary policies of mainstream countries in the world, as well as cryptocurrency regulation.

In addition, just waiting quietly, waiting for the next take-off of BTC after leaving the US stock market...