Why does the little bee think that last week was the stage of BTC washing, rather than BTC peaking?

First of all, most of us should be able to understand that the BTC market is manipulated by bookmakers. I believe this sentence should not be questioned.

Next, look at this K-line chart of BTC. The little bee draws a dotted line in the middle. The latest wave of declines is still above the dotted line, and the high point of the previous wave is just below the dotted line.

In other words, although BTC fell sharply last week, it still did not fall below the previous high. Not to mention the main body of the K-line when it is stable, even the pin of the lower shadow line has not fallen below the top of the previous high upper shadow line.

This shows that the overall trend is still upward.

In order to be more rigorous, let's also look at the situation of the coinbase exchange, and the result is exactly the same: the trend of BTC,

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slow down

Looking at the decline of BTC in the last week, the entity is getting shorter and shorter, indicating that BTC is decelerating and falling more slowly.

Coinbase is the same.

A deceleration decline means that the decline is gradually weakening. If it is the main force smashing the plate, it will not get slower and slower. Compared with the BTC daily line in December 2017:

At the end of 2017, it also fell continuously within a week:

On the one hand, the downward trend at that time clearly fell below the previous high, which is a state where the bullish trend has fallen;

On the other hand, the decline at that time was obviously an accelerated decline, and history proved that the bull market at that time was really beginning to end.

In contrast, it is not difficult to find that the current BTC does not look like the end of the bull market at all. From a sudden plunge to a deceleration decline, it seems that the main force is deliberately maintaining BTC above the previous high.

If you look at the status, you will find that it is washing dishes.

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downcast

Let’s recall the week from the 22nd to the 28th. BTC first fell significantly on Monday, and last week’s BTC drop seemed to be related to US stocks. Last Monday and Tuesday, there were rumors of an early interest rate hike in the US fund market, which led to US stocks plummeted. The chairman of the Federal Reserve made a speech, saying that he would not raise interest rates for the time being, and then the U.S. stock market rose again. Then, affected by the U.S. debt, the U.S. stock market suffered another setback.

In fact, the last high-speed rise of BTC was from December 16, 2020 to January 8, 2021, and the rising cycle was 23 days;

And this wave, BTC is from January 28, 2021 to February 21, 2021 after the callback, and the rising cycle is 24 days.

This cycle is relatively neat, so BTC should actually enter a wave of corrections. Even if the main force does not manipulate, the market expects the same. You must know that many small investors may not care about the cycle, but investors with large funds tend to be careful.

Therefore, BTC's own callback force is the dominant force, and US stocks are only a boost. With the help of U.S. stocks, BTC experienced a large decline on February 22. Still under the influence of U.S. stocks, BTC only recovered slightly on Wednesday, and fell on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday.

Until Saturday and Sunday, U.S. stocks will not open. However, the $1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan (water release plan) was finally officially passed.

The main force is still continuing to wash the market, but it seems that it does not want to fall below the previous high point. Therefore, on Saturdays, Sundays, and even from the beginning of the week, BTC has experienced negative declines.

Buffett

Buffett

Buffett published a 2021 letter to shareholders on February 27. Buffett's understanding of BTC may be biased, but his views on the macro economy and US stocks should be worth learning from.

After all, the currency market will also be affected by the macro economy and has a certain degree of correlation with US stocks.

Little Bee believes that there are three main points in Buffett's letter:

First of all, Buffett said that "bonds are not a good choice for investment", which means that Buffett's expectation for bonds is continued negative interest rates.

Second, Buffett said "don't short the United States." Of course, there are emotional factors in it as an American, but at the same time, his views are also reasonable. The influence of US stocks and the US dollar will still be very large in the world. Therefore, US stocks may continue to rise after the adjustment.

Again, Buffett mentioned some industries and companies. We don't discuss stocks, but it can be seen that Buffett, as always, maintains his philosophy of value investing and chooses high-quality stock investments.

Under the release of water, the bubble in the US stock market is indeed very large, but there is a high probability that the release of water will continue. Under such circumstances, it should be noted that the subsequent growth of US stocks, especially after the epidemic is under control and the economy begins to recover, may be structural growth.

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what to do next

How to go next, nothing more than three possibilities:

The first possibility: the rebound rises.

The second possibility: continue to explore.

The third possibility: range shocks.

• price angle

The last wave of BTC fell from 42,000 to 30,000, a drop of 28%. At present, BTC has fallen from 58,000 to around 44,000, a drop of 25%, so there may be some room for decline, and BTC does not seem to have bottomed out.

On the other hand, BTC is already very close to the previous high, and there is still a possibility of continuing to drop, but there may not be much room for a complete decline.

• cycle angle

The last wave of corrections lasted from January 9th to January 27th, with a total of 18 days of corrections. This wave currently only has 7 days, plus today’s up to 8 days, so it may take some time for consolidation.

• macroeconomic perspective

The $1.9 trillion water release plan was officially passed. However, this is not just a water release plan. Its essence is an economic stimulus plan. The main motivation is to stimulate consumption and develop the economy.

Therefore, the flow of funds to the market needs to go through several rounds of consumption, distribution, re-consumption, and re-distribution, and will eventually be concentrated in the hands of capital tycoons and flow to the financial market.

Therefore, there is no substantial benefit in the short term, and the funds driving the currency market should gradually flow into the currency market after one month.

However, the passage of the $1.9 trillion plan should still have a positive emotional impact on the U.S. stocks that opened on Monday and the currency market at the same time. Buffett's letter also brought more confidence to the U.S. stock market, and there is a high probability that the U.S. stock market will rise to a certain extent at the opening tonight. Of course, this rise is temporary, after all, it will take time for the real benefits to be released.

• short term possibility

Through the above analysis, it can be concluded that BTC still has a certain room for dipping, but it is more likely to be a pin, and the space for the entity to fall is relatively small; and BTC will start to rise again, and it may take 1-2 weeks to wash the market. , against the previous wave of callbacks, it will still take 12 days for this round of reshuffle (estimate, for reference only).

write at the end

write at the end

In the past two months, the trend of BTC has been ups and downs, and the ups and downs are greater than the downs. Comparing the BTC callback in 2017, we will find that it is more like a wash, and the bullish trend is still there.

And Buffett's letter to shareholders, let us believe that the release of legal currency and negative interest rates continue, and there is still room for growth in US stocks. Therefore, in this environment, BTC still has growth potential.

From the perspective of BTC price, cycle and macroeconomics, short-term BTC may enter a range of shocks and occasionally insert pins, and there is still some room for dipping (Little Bee placed an order from 41,000 to around 38,000, because Little Bee is playing It is more than 5 times, so it is not very accurate to correspond). It may take a 1-2 consolidation, and the funds waiting to be released will be concentrated from the consumption field to the capital field, and BTC will start a new round of rise again.

Of course, the personal views of Little Bee do not constitute investment advice. After all, the factors that affect the market in the short term are too complicated, and no one can accurately predict the short term with a high probability.