If you can hide from the first day of the junior high school but not the fifteenth day, is this wave of bottom-hunting or wait and see?

Friends should have watched it in the mustard circle, and saw Professor Shuo’s cry in the group, it’s not the time to buy the bottom, at least the emotions in the US stock market have not yet been vented, we are just a “stepping stone” for others.

Let’s not understand why the decline has occurred. Mustard circles, Weibo, and groups have suggested that this wave of decline has nothing to do with the currency circle itself. The main reason comes from the “fiscal policy” or “monetary policy” that the United States will carry out next. ".

That is to say, the currency circle has been affected, and on the other hand, it also shows that the currency circle is now closely related to the traditional financial circle. It is no longer the same as before. The currency circle ≠ finance, and now the currency circle + XXX + XXXX = finance , This is also the reason why everyone is getting more and more tired now. After all, in addition to paying attention to the daily updated currency circle consultation, we also need to pay attention to the traditional financial circle.

Let's not mention the currency circle for now.

Let’s take a look at the traditional financial circle first.

Foreign exchange part: The US dollar appreciated sharply yesterday, and the renminbi depreciated sharply. Of course, this is relative. For us in the currency circle, the usdt that you have been thinking about has finally appreciated, so are you happy or unhappy?

The part of the U.S. bond interest rate: U.S. treasury bonds have finally risen after a year, and this is very Fomo to the risk aversion sentiment in the market, which may suppress the inflection point of global speculation;

The stock market: Both the big A and the U.S. stocks have collapsed. The big A has fallen for 6 days in a row. The U.S. stock market crashed yesterday, especially the high-tech stocks, which fell directly across the board. Among them, Tesla fell as much as Bitcoin , can’t help but make people laugh, after all, the relationship between Tesla and Bitcoin is really complicated now;

In terms of Sec: Coinbase will be listed soon. Yesterday it directly pulled up the market, and then collapsed along with the US stock market. It is reported that Sec is preparing to collect the richest man’s call for cryptocurrency. Regarding Dogecoin, Btcoin, etc., I don’t know if there will be something. Woolen cloth;

Federal Reserve: Due to the sudden plunge in U.S. stocks yesterday, Fed officials hurriedly stated that the central bank did not plan to tighten liquidity prematurely. At the same time, they affirmed that the surge in U.S. Treasury yields reflects the market’s optimism that the economy will get out of the new crown crisis, which is a good sign;

Seeing the liquidity, I can't help thinking of the continuous circuit breaker last year. The reason is that there is a problem with the exhausted "liquidity". After a year of loose and quantitative monetary policy, the "liquidity is exhausted" immediately. Are you saying that there is still less money printed? ? ?

The next most interesting thing is that overseas is still deeply persecuted by the epidemic, and the unemployment rate remains high. If there is another tightening of currency overseas and no subsidies, then a new round of dzq will start again. 5 yuan each LV, Chanel, Hermes will appear on the Internet, right?

Let's go back to the currency circle.

An immediate question is whether to buy the bottom or not to buy the bottom? Will it fall? In the end or not in the end?

Don’t copy the bottom: This is something that has been said in the group, don’t be influenced by anyone, when you think this point is suitable for you, then you can enter, you must know that when it is 3800, many people say that it will break 1000, and the result is reversed It's $58,000, so don't follow the crowd, it's the reason why many people make money.

Therefore, whether to buy the bottom or not depends on your own definition of the value of BTC, pay attention to the spot and not the contract;

Will it fall in the end: This question is actually not the same as the following. The bottom is determined by the market and will not change because of one person's will, unless you alone can change the will of the entire market, so you don't need to ask others. Just follow your heart.

From the point of view of technical indicators.

In terms of technical indicators, at 58,000, it was said to be a top divergence, and the overbought situation appeared. All the indicators were bearish, but they could not hold back the enthusiasm of the market. From 33,000, they were in a bearish trend. Long pulled up abruptly, so he didn't think that technical indicators could influence the market at the time, but now I realize that it's for my sake.

Pay attention to the U.S. stocks tonight, with a high probability of opening low and going high. After all, the U.S. index has begun to rebound, and Bitcoin should also start to rebound. I am afraid to wait for it to stabilize. Now it depends on what happens at night, and it will be another two days It's the weekend.

Finally, I wish you all a happy Lantern Festival.

Professor Suo WeChat: txshitbusiness