BTC fell back after reaching a record high on January 8, and rushed to $40,000 again on February 6. There is a lot of pressure here at $41,000. After the BTC breakthrough was frustrated, it fell back below $38,000 again. The biggest drop was about 8.8%.

This callback is not small for BTC, but it is not too big either.

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ETH

call back

On February 2, ETH suddenly started to rise and successfully broke through the historical high. On February 5, it rose to a new high of $1,760. Then gradually pull back, ETH dropped suddenly in the early morning of this morning, the lowest point was 1490 US dollars, and the largest drop was 15.34%.

This wave of ETH’s rise, from the perspective of the market alone, is indeed that ETH has been sorting out for a period of time, and the market has high expectations for ETH to break through the previous high.

What detonated this expectation and brought about the rise was the news of ETH futures on CME. The news appeared in China on February 3. As soon as the news came out, ETH continued to rise.

And CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, is a large futures exchange. Its main futures products include agricultural products, energy, stock indexes, foreign exchange rates, financial products, etc. Cryptocurrency futures have been introduced in recent years. Before ETH, there were only BTC futures and options. And ETH is determined to be listed on February 8.

One of the biggest differences between CME’s cryptocurrency futures and futures contracts on cryptocurrency exchanges is that they must be delivered in cash. This means that there will be an increase in demand for ETH, and ETH will be held to meet the expiration of CME's ETH futures.

Therefore, CME's launch of ETH futures is not just a positive news.

Therefore, ETH fell for a wave before the incident. On the one hand, due to the sell-off of speculators affected by the news, ETH fell rapidly after a sharp rise; Throw some retail investors out of the car.

In response to the saying that is often said in the currency circle, all good things are bad news. Just like BTC on May 10, 2020, there was a wave of decline before BTC production was halved.

However, if we observe carefully, we will find that although the correction of ETH is not small, the price still has not fallen back to the level before the news appeared, and the lowest point has not touched the previous high point.

bull market

bull market

In addition, it is observed that the current decline is relatively obvious. Whether it is BTC, ETH or Defi, which the little bees want to talk about later, they have all experienced significant rises.

Public chain coins such as BSV and EOS have not fallen back in the past 24 hours and have risen.

Dogecoin hit its previous high under the orders of celebrity bosses.

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Defi

diving

I believe that most currency lovers have not lost ETH. In everyone's asset allocation, BTC and ETH should be a necessary component. However, there should be some currency fans who are like little bees, because Defi has become popular more than once in 2020, so Defi is not configured in 2021.

And Defi will be amazing again from January to early February 2021. During the BTC callback phase, Defi coins such as UNI are still rising, and when BTC and ETH are rising, Defi is still rising.

It wasn't until February 6, when BTC reached another $40,000, that blood began to flow, and Defi dived collectively.

At this time, there should be some coin lovers, like Little Bee, who want to get on Defi?

Little Bee analyzed in the article a few days ago that there are four main reasons why Defi has risen: first, because Defi is mostly a new project, with little selling pressure and easy to pull; second, because Defi projects are financial The project is indeed the place closest to the money; the third is because the blockchain industry is still in a wild stage, and there are not many blockchains that really create value for the society, so the funds will be concentrated in the financial field; the fourth is the continuous release of legal currency , Hot money enters the currency market, and a hot spot is needed to trigger a rise.

So back to the current stage, the first point has changed. After all, after the rise, the selling pressure of Defi projects has increased. But the second, third, and fourth factors have not changed.

And there are no new hotspots in the currency market, and the four sectors that everyone expects are still high: Polkadot ecology, NFT, Layer2, and Defi.

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battle of the gods

However, Defi in 2021 is different from 2020. If Defi in 2020 is a dance of demons, then Defi in 2021 will be a battle of gods.

The leader of Defi, as the place closest to money in the currency market, is still hot.

Little Bee originally wanted to calculate the price-earnings ratio based on each Defi algorithm. But after a closer look, it is really impossible to calculate, and everyone will not calculate this when buying coins. On the contrary, the amount of locked positions is more intuitive, so Little Bee calculated the price-to-book ratio by dividing the market value of the top 20 locked Defi coins by the amount locked on the platform:

Among them, Curve, Badger, and CREAM have relatively low price-to-book ratios.

Of course, the price-to-book ratio does not work in the currency market. On the one hand, different types of Defi have different capital models. On the other hand, the currency market does not talk about martial arts, and people will not rationally calculate this capital model.

Therefore, Little Bee calculated the coefficient of variation of the market value of these 18 currencies using the data of the past year.

Because there are more data on price fluctuations every day, it is simply calculated by market value.

Coefficient of variation = standard deviation / mean, which reflects the deviation level of the price.

A coin with a larger coefficient of variation indicates that the price fluctuates more, and there are relatively more opportunities to make profits in short-term fluctuations.

Curve, Uniswap, Sushiswap, Synthetix, Badger, Alpha, and Ren have an average fluctuation of more than 100%.

Let’s take a look at the recent fluctuations. Of course, these data are available on many platforms, and the little bees are organized together for easy comparison: