Why don't a few currency lovers think that this round of bull market is over?

The most intuitive feeling is that the trend of BTC in 2020 is too similar to that in 2017.

First, both 2017 and 2020 started a crazy rise at the end of the year;

Second, there will be a relatively large correction in January 2018 and January 2021;

Third, in January 2018 and January 2021, there was a situation where Ethereum represented and other Altcoins rose.

secondary title

Compared

2020 vs 2017

Little Bee compared the increase of BTC in 2017:

Based on the opening price, on January 1, 2017, the opening price of BTC was 963.66 US dollars, and on December 31, 2017, the opening price of BTC was 12,897.70. , the price of BTC increased by 13.384 times.

If we consider the additional issuance of Bitcoin and compare the market value of Bitcoin, we also do not compare the highest value, but compare January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2017. On January 1, 2017, the market value of BTC was 16,050,407,461 US dollars, and on December 31, 2017, the market value of BTC was 237,465,823,980. Calculated by market value, BTC rose even more in 2017, with an increase of 14.795 times.

Let’s look at BTC in 2020 again,

On January 1, 2020, the opening price of BTC was $7,194.89, and the market value was $130,580,829,150.

On December 31, 2020, the opening price of BTC was $28,841.57, and the market value was $539,051,138,108.

On December 31, 2020, the opening price increased by 4 times that of January 1, 2020, and the market value was 4.13 times.

secondary title

2020 vs 2016   

According to the cycle of BTC every 4 years, BTC's 2020 should correspond to 2016 instead of 2017. Let's compare the BTC in 2020 and 2016.

On January 1, 2016, the opening price of BTC was $430.72, and the market value was $6,529,299,589.

On December 31, 2016, the opening price of BTC was $960.63, and the market value was $15,492,554,222.

On December 31, 2016, the opening price rose to 2.23 times that of January 1, 2016, and the market value was 2.37 times.

secondary title

Introduce US stock factors

Perhaps, some currency enthusiasts think that the acceleration of BTC's rise will become slower and slower, so they think that BTC in 2020 is equivalent to 2017.

But we have overlooked a factor that is the impact of the quantitative easing of the US dollar. The continuous release of the US dollar has an impact on the price of BTC.

On the one hand, because the BTC price we are talking about is denominated in U.S. dollars, when the U.S. dollar continues to release water, the nominal price of BTC expressed in U.S. dollars will naturally rise.

On the other hand, due to the deluge of the US dollar, people's expectations are affected, so the scarce BTC and gold will be affected by the expected factors, so more hot money flows in, which pushes up the price of BTC. On this basis, some short-term speculators joined in, so the price of BTC was even higher.

what to do?

Data Sources:

Data Sources:https://siblisresearch.com/data/us-stock-market-value/

On December 31, 2015, the ratio of the market value of BTC to the total market value of US stocks was 2.58 per ten thousand.

On December 31, 2016, the ratio of the market value of BTC to the total market value of US stocks was 5.66 per ten thousand.

On December 31, 2017, the ratio of the market capitalization of BTC to the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks was 73.73 per ten thousand.

On December 31, 2019, the ratio of the market capitalization of BTC to the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks was 105.09 per ten thousand.

After introducing U.S. stocks, let’s compare the changes in the value ratio of BTC to the U.S. dollar.

In 2016, the ratio changed to 2.19 times,

In 2017, the ratio changed by 13.03 times,

In 2020, the ratio will change by 1.42 times.

As a growing financial asset, BTC has a diminishing acceleration, which is normal. However, by comparing with US stocks, we can find that compared with 2016, the growth rate in 2020 has already decreased to a certain extent, but it is almost incomparable with 2017.

Therefore, the little bee thinks that BTC in 2020 is not as crazy as it was in 2017.

The madness we see is the impact of the increased release of the dollar.

This screenshot was used by the little bee once. It can be seen that on December 20, 2020, the United States released another 900 billion stimulus bill.

Let’s take a look at the performance of BTC from December 2020 to the present. Around December 16, it started a more accelerated rise.

The stimulus bill passed on December 20 should have been proposed before the 20th.

Therefore, the reason we see the crazy rise of BTC may be different from that in 2017. 2017 was the result of the market's main pull, and December 2020 may be the stimulating effect of the dollar's release.

Of course, this stimulating effect is also limited. BTC has been rising for too long, and it has changed from a large-scale increase to a shrinking increase.

There isn't much selling and there isn't much buying left. Without chasing the rise, of course the dealer will no longer pull the market. Market callback, into consolidation.

write at the end

write at the end

Finally, the little bee would like to add something. Although a new US$1.9 trillion economic stimulus bill is on the way, I am afraid that more of this part of the funds will flow to the real economy.

The next market may continue to wash the market.

A coin friend posted a post on AEX, which made Little Bee very emotional:

Even more impressive is this:

We must not let the market affect our emotions. We cannot think that the bull market is gone just because of a pullback, nor can we feel that the bull market has completely returned when we see a rise.

This washboard market is to let us be washed back and forth on the washboard, the pain is really painful, but calm down!

The little bee thinks that if the bull market is over, $30,000 should not be stable and will soon fall. If it stabilizes, it won't rise anytime soon. On the one hand, funds will flow to the real economy, and on the other hand, it takes a long time for BTC to rise, from $20,000 to $40,000, it only took about 21 days. The consolidation time will not be shorter than this time, it will only be longer than this time.

Moreover, from a consolidation to a bull market, it has to go through a slow bull process.

The little bee still said that the market of Bitcoin should not be pessimistic, but it should not be too optimistic.