BTC doubled again, the more it waited for it to pull back, the more it rose.

Little Bee wrote a paragraph a few days ago:

TVB: Why can't I find the resistance level?

BTC: resistance level? Those who stand in my way die!

As a result, the word became a prophecy, and BTC skyrocketed, reaching $17,000 effortlessly.

The Air Force was killed in a mess and suffered a crushing defeat.

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2020 vs 2017 

Little Bee observed the trend of BTC today and found that the trend of BTC this year and 2017, except for the first three months, is very similar.

Look at this picture on coinmarketcap:

In 2017, BTC had two peaks, and then almost kept rushing upwards.

There was a callback during this period. Putting the time from 2016 to the present, you can see this callback relatively clearly. In the blue box on the graph, the callback is a sharp drop and then a rapid rebound, and then almost all the way up.

This year, after the halving, there were also two rounds of peaks, and now it is almost in a state of no resistance, all the way up.

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Bull market ahead?

Naturally, there are certain reasons for the advance of the bull market.

The bull market in 2017 was mainly due to the psychological expectations of investors and speculators, which caused a price bubble in BTC in an instant. The bubble rises fast and bursts quickly. In 2018, BTC fell almost all the way until the end of the year, under the catalysis of the BCH and BSV fork computing power war, BTC fell to $3,000.

However, 2020 is different.

First, in 2016, not many people knew about BTC, and even fewer dared to buy it. Little Bee’s husband knew about BTC as early as when BTC was only 20 yuan, so he didn’t dare to buy it. Of course, even if you buy it, you probably won't be able to sell it now.

However, 2020 is different. In 2020, more people are full of confidence in BTC, and at the same time, they also understand the 4-year cycle. Since they know that 2021 is a big bull, they can’t wait until 2021 to buy BTC! Before the halving of BTC in 2016, it was very quiet, but in February 2020, it rose sharply. Therefore, people began to buy BTC before the expected big bull came, that is, in 2020, thus promoting the advance of the BTC bull market.

Second, 2020 is no longer a bunch of retail investors going crazy, nor is it only the big guys who cut leeks calling for orders.

Grayscale, Microstratery, Paypal, Square, and JPMorgan Chase are all institutional investors in BTC.

There is a clear difference between institutional investors and retail investors: on the one hand, institutional investors invest through professional analysis and judgment. They will not only analyze the investment price of BTC from a financial perspective, but also look at its code to understand its value. . On the other hand, institutional investors cannot be short-term speculators, and they will relatively hold them for a longer period of time.

Some people joked that Huidu is the brave of the currency circle, because Huidu has been buying, buying, buying, and hoarding after buying.

Third, if the bull market advances, there is another reason, which is also the reason why institutions invest in BTC and LTC, and that is risk aversion. After all, the global fiat currency releases water, and gold may have a bubble under the influence of risk aversion. On the other hand, we should be able to understand that the growth space of BTC should be greater than that of gold. Of course, investment institutions should have already allocated gold, and they need other assets other than gold, securities, and foreign exchange to enrich their investment structure, so as to have the possibility of obtaining more returns. Therefore, BTC and LTC have become the choice of institutions.

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two possible trends

The question now is that BTC may have two possible movements next.

The first is that 2020 will really repeat 2017, and it will reach new highs at the end of the year.

The second type, because people's greater expectations are in 2021, so 2020 will stop abruptly after the rise to a certain height, start to pull back, and then restart the rise in 2021.

The first one above is crazy this year, and the second one is callback this year and continue to be crazy next year. Of course, some friends think there are other possibilities.

If there is a third possibility, it is going crazy from this year to next year. This possibility is not very high, because according to the current trend, it is almost a vertical upward trend until next year. This possibility is unlikely, because if BTC is unlikely to only rise but not fall, when the rising trend slows down, especially when the market is sideways, the dealer will always cash out, cut some timid people out of the car, and then start Pull up next round. Therefore, it is possible to continue to rise in the short term, but it is unlikely to continue to rise in the long term.

If there is a fourth one, it has been falling, and the possibility of this is close to zero.

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Volatility Data Comparison

The little bee went to study the fluctuations in 2017. As shown in the following table:

These 5 dates correspond to these 5 points on the BTC price chart:

In February 2020, due to the impact of the halving expectation, there was a peak, but at that time, the little bee thought that it was not the start of the bull market, at most it was the preparation for the bull market. Soon, on March 12, BTC suffered a fatal drop along with the U.S. stock market, and then began to rebound gradually. Before the BTC output was halved, BTC fell slightly again, and then started two rounds of rising. The little bee counted the two rounds according to the above content:

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trend analysis

callback possible

From this graph, we can see that the recent rise of BTC has almost never been pulled back.

It has been 91 days since the last peak of BTC today, and 168 days since the first peak. In 2017, the callback point was 148 days away from the first peak.

The little bee speculates that there may be a callback recently, or at the end of the month or the beginning of next month.

trend analysis

In the first case, if the callback is large and there is no rebound, then the market in 2020 will come to this point, and then we will look forward to the performance of BTC in 2021.

In the second case, if BTC rebounds quickly after the callback, then 2020 may rise as wildly as 2021.

The little bee thinks the first case is more likely.

Logically, everyone's expectations for 2021 are higher than 2020.

In terms of data, we can compare the previous two tables. From the first peak to the second peak, the increase in 2017 was 65.36, while the increase in the second peak in 2020 was only 21.4%.

In terms of trend, BTC in 2016 was almost flat. In 2020, it will be relatively volatile. There was a rise at the beginning of the year, a sharp drop in March, and ups and downs from the halving to the second half of the year. Because the BTC market in 2016 is relatively small, but the volatility will become greater in 2020, so there may be big ups and downs.

write at the end

write at the end

Little Bee wrote this article mainly to analyze the current trend of BTC and remind everyone that there is a risk of a callback, but it is never recommended to short. The bull market is bearish and not short!

If a callback does occur, it is a suitable time to get on the car, but it is not suitable for stud all the bullets at once.

Finally, the little bee predicts the possible new high of BTC. Because the price of BTC fluctuated too much in this round, and the price in 2016 was relatively flat, it is impossible to judge the average situation of this wave. We can only use the peaks of the two rounds of fluctuations for comparison.

According to the trend in 2017, the highest point of BTC in 2017 is 5.46 times of the first peak. According to this multiple, the first peak of this round of bull cycle is 10119. According to this multiple, BTC will rise to 10119*5.46 = $55250.

If BTC is 3.91 times the second peak in 2017, the second peak of this bull cycle is 12284.65, 12284.65*3.91=48023.

in conclusion:

in conclusion:

1. The little bee believes that the big bull may have a callback in late November to early December in 2021.

2. If it rebounds immediately after the callback, it will be a big bull this year.

3. The high point of BTC in this round is conservatively estimated at 29,000 US dollars, moderately estimated at 39,000 US dollars, and optimistically estimated at around 49,000 US dollars.