Bitcoin market analysis: Bitcoin is following in the footsteps of gold?

Last night, the market was more complicated than normal. Usually, if you want to insert needles, you usually solve the battle at one time, and not all insert in one direction. But last night, after a fall, there was another wave in the middle of the night. Two points of information can be drawn. One is that the confidence of the market to continue to rise is not that strong when it is approaching the previous high. After all, the continued rise will break the previous high. The strength required is different from that of a normal rise, and it needs to boost market confidence. factor emerges.

Second, if the first wave of callbacks yesterday was expected, then the second wave is more deliberately aimed at the market, especially at the point of 11500. The first wave normally hits this key support position, while the second wave deliberately falls below At this position, even if it rebounds now, it will rebound to around 11500.

Last night, the price of the currency fell back. From the results, Bitcoin also fell by about 400 US dollars. At the deepest point, it was only less than 600 US dollars. The market that was once indifferent to the fluctuation of 700-800 US dollars now seems to be much more sensitive. Probably because I still have lingering fears about the big correction last weekend, and it is currently at a high level, so the mood changes will be more drastic.

The trigger for yesterday’s decline came from the U.S. market. The July non-agricultural employment report released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday showed that 1.763 million new jobs were created that month, and the unemployment rate fell to 10.2%, which was better than market expectations.

The result of this data boosted the US dollar. The US dollar index rebounded yesterday. The strong gold and silver bulls fled one after another. The price of gold and silver fell to a certain extent. fall back.

But it is still too early to say that the economy has begun to recover at a faster pace, especially when the epidemic situation has not improved significantly. Both the employment situation and the consumption situation will not improve quickly in the short term. This is just the impact of the epidemic situation. The impact of the epidemic is not only the current economic situation, but more seriously, the living habits of the local people have changed during this period, and this change may not be conducive to the later market economy.

The first is the consumption situation. The standard of living in the United States is indeed among the top in the world, but this is based on the premise that the American people "enjoy the present and overdraw the future". The disadvantages of this lifestyle are also reflected in this epidemic. Unfinished credit cards and penniless savings. Some time ago, there was a data report that many Americans could not come up with $400 in cash. This does not refer to cash such as banknotes, but all deposits. Therefore, during the epidemic, there is no When the income is low, the credit card cannot be used for overdraft consumption.

After the epidemic, the savings habits of the American people may have changed. This is still very important. There is evidence that after the Great Depression in the 1930s, that generation of Americans was also very thrifty. Only then returned to normal.

Taking China as an example, with the development of living standards, online borrowing is also easier, so many young people in China are basically living a life of "overdrafting the future". However, the epidemic has allowed more people to learn to save money, including the current domestic The impact of the epidemic has basically been reduced to very small, but the speed of economic recovery is only unsatisfactory. The most important reason is that many people have begun to save money and reduce consumption. It is expected that even after the epidemic situation in the United States begins to improve later, it will be a marathon in terms of consumption stimulus. For the United States, consumption accounts for 70% of economic activity.

In addition, the United States currently owes more and more debts. The "release of water" is the cause sown now, and the fruit of "repayment" will be greeted in the later stage. In addition, the overall economic environment in the world is still in a loose state, and the temporary data is better for reference The value is not great.

The logic of economic change is like this. If it has been poor all the time, there will be a temporary turning point in the middle. This turning point may be the life-saving straw of the market. When it occurs, we should grasp it first, but after a while, we find that the straw is straw after all. It will fall silent again, and the real economic recovery will definitely have a period of dormancy and accumulation, just like when Bitcoin falls to the bottom, it will start to rise slowly when the foundation is laid.

Not only was Bitcoin falling yesterday, but other currencies fell even more. It can be seen that this week is dominated by Bitcoin. Among the mainstream currencies, only Bitcoin rose the most this week. Other traditional mainstream currencies There is no particularly outstanding performance, but it took the lead when it fell. Basically, it can be determined that Bitcoin is mainly following the macro logic.

If it is at the daily line level, it does not seem to be a big problem. It will rebound quickly after falling down on the 10-day moving average. It is more logical to continue to explore the bottom today. Under the premise of not messing around.

After all, the macro market basically does not open on weekends, so it will not bring guiding market prices to the currency market.

There are several factors worthy of attention at present that may make it difficult for the currency market next week.

One is that the U.S. dollar index rose sharply and gold fell this Friday, which may continue next week, so Bitcoin may still follow this logic to influence the market.

Second, from the perspective of Bitcoin itself, the daily MACD is at a high level and is about to cross, while the weekly line is a little far away from the moving average, and it is possible to adjust it appropriately.

The third is that there has been a callback around $12,000 for two consecutive times. This position may create a pressure on the market. When the price reaches this position, the probability of the bulls slowing down the spread of the bearish sentiment is relatively high.

To sum up, if the market makers don’t make trouble deliberately, there will probably not be violent ups and downs on weekends, and the overall trend of shocks or even shocks will be repaired. Next week, we must consider the impact of the macro environment, technical perspective, and market sentiment.