Bitcoin fell below the trend line and started to withdraw, will it fill the gap?
After Bitcoin tested the pressure of 9,500 US dollars, it did not break through. It chose to test the support downwards. After falling below the upward trend line, it started to withdraw. Next, focus on the strength of the anti-drawing, and observe the pressure around 9,300 US dollars. If it can break through, it will return to the upward trend line again; if it fails, it will return to around 8,600 US dollars, which is a strong support level.
It can be seen from the figure that after Bitcoin hit a high point on May 7, it started to fluctuate and ran in the range for more than a month. This time it fell below, and the "rising wedge" is also the most common head shape. As for whether the head is really formed, it depends on the strength of the back draw. If it can continue to return above the upward trend line, then the head pattern is not established, and if the reverse draw is not in place, then basically the process of bottoming out must begin.
The longer the shock, the longer the time and space for adjustment. This point has been emphasized. Therefore, as I have emphasized recently, the best policy is to rebound to reduce positions and control risks.
As for the support below, there are basically two shock ranges, namely 8600 and 7600 US dollars, because during the rising process, these two ranges have concentrated more bargaining chips.
Regarding the pressure level in the back-drawing stage, it is basically around 9300-9400. If the price falls below this range, it will begin to accelerate its decline. It is a normal trend for the back-drawing to this position to test the new pressure. And if it can rebound to above $9,500, then the market will be bullish again, otherwise it will be bearish.
In the case of ETH, the trend is a little weaker. Basically, after falling below the trend line, it began to accelerate its decline. After the reverse draw, it encountered the suppression of 225 US dollars, and the 230 position above is the key position. The 50% position of Fibonacci near 215 US dollars is the central position of this rebound, and the support is strong, so we can focus on it.
Another point is whether the gap of BTC at 9,450 US dollars will be covered, and if it is to be covered, it may return to the upward trend line again. Of course, according to historical backtesting, the probability of covering is around 70%. This is also a point that everyone needs to pay attention to. Once a gap appears, it means that there is a big difference between the long and short sides here, and this position will also become an important position in the later stage.
On the whole, this wave of decline has hit a new low in the past two weeks. If you do swings, you can reduce your positions during the rebound stage. Medium and long-term investment is still to build positions in batches at the support level. In a contract-controlled market, the more bearish the indicator is, the more likely it is to rebound from the market. Therefore, the more pessimistic you are, the more people are short sellers. We must learn to change our thinking, find a suitable position, and operate in reverse.
