Estimating the Distribution of Bitcoin Miners
Two recent articles, includingandandForecast of Bitcoin Fengshui computing power in 2020, the article uses a bitcoin mining machineQuantity distributionandQuantity distributionFor these data, some readers have raised doubts.
Indeed, there are currently many mining machine manufacturers, each type of mining machineProduction status，SalesIt is not completely transparent, and it is difficult to accurately count the proportion of various mining machines. But fortunately, the author does not want to analyze the entire mining machine industry, but only estimates the computing power of the entire network, soOnly for Bitcoin mining machinesandandhistorical growth trendstatistics and estimates. This does not require the data to be 100 percent precise.
Basic dataBasic dataare sourced from trusted third-party websites,Estimated resultMost of it comes from the author's conjecture,Just provide an idea, not for reference。
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data fromhttps://www.f2pool.com/minersandhttps://www.asicminervalue.com/
time onlinetime online, the unit computing power consumption of the mining machine (referred to asMining power)andMining powerCondition. Some of the mining machines of the same model have different computing power or different energy consumption ratios due to different physiques or through overclocking and frequency reduction techniques, which are also listed in the mining machine computing power column.
In addition, there are some mining machine manufacturers such as ASICMiner, Bitfly, Bitfury, GMO, Halong Mining and other mining machine manufacturers, who also shipped mining machines in different periods, but the scale is small, so I will not list them.
According to the above table, it can be seen thatBefore the wet season in 2018, the mining machines that have been put on sale, the models include A841, T2, E10, A921 and S9, with an average energy consumption ratio of 90W/T, but after firmware optimization and overclocking, these mining machines represented by S9The average energy consumption ratio can reach 85W/T。
S11, T15, A1026 and other mining machines with an energy consumption ratio of about 70W/T, as a transitional model between the S9 mining machine and the M10 and S15, the shipments are not many.
Before the wet season in 2019, the mining machines that have been released include M10 series mining machines, T3 series mining machines, S15, E11, M21 series, etc.The average energy consumption ratio is 60W/Tmining machine. Also includes T17, M20 series, S17, etc.The average energy consumption ratio is 50W/Tmining machine. Among them, the 50W/T mining machine was launched not long before the high water season, and the mining machine was newly put into production, which was affected by chip production capacity and product quality.Small shipments, It did not become the main shipment model until the third and fourth quarters of 2019.
Before the wet season in 2020, the mining machines that have been released, except for the main shipments50W/T mining machineIn addition, there are S17+, M30 series mining machines, M31 series mining machines, S19 series mining machines,The average energy consumption ratio reaches 40W/T, or even lower.
For the convenience of statistics, grouping the mining machines in the above table according to the average energy consumption ratio can roughly estimate the average computing power of each group of mining machines:
Average energy consumption ratio85W/TMining machine, the average computing power of mainstream mining machines14TH/s；
Average energy consumption ratio60W/TMining machine, the average computing power of mainstream mining machines45TH/s；
Average energy consumption ratio50W/TMining machine, the average computing power of mainstream mining machines55TH/s；
Average energy consumption ratio40W/TMining machine, the average computing power of mainstream mining machines95TH/s。
data from
data fromhttps://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart
According to the data in the above table,2018 wet season(June-October 2018) The newly added computing power is 16EH/s, and the newly added mining machines are mainly mining machines with an average computing power of 14TH/s and an average energy consumption ratio of 85W/T.It is roughly estimated that the number of new mining machines is about 1.1 million(Due to the existence of M3, T9, V9 and other mining machines with lower computing power, the actual number may be more).
December 2018 to May 2019, the newly added computing power is 14EH/s. Since the currency price has entered the bottom during this period, the income of a large number of energy consumption ratio mining machines is not equal to the electricity bill. The newly added mining machines are mainly partially restarted 85W/T energy consumption ratio mining machines and 60W/T According to the irresponsible estimation of the author, the total computing power of the newly added 60W/T energy consumption ratio mining machine during this period is about 10EH/s.The number of new mining machines is about 200,000。
2019 wet season(June-October 2019) The newly added computing power is 43EH/s. At this time, the 85W/T energy consumption ratio mining machines basically no longer add new shipments, and the newly added mining machines are mainly 60W/T with an average computing power of 45TH/s. T energy consumption ratio mining machine and 50W/T energy consumption ratio mining machine with an average computing power of 55W/T, the former is the main shipment model, and the latter is less than the former due to the new launch, restricted by production capacity and production line . (According to the author's irresponsible estimate, the newly added 50W/T mining machine computing power accounted for 25% of the newly added computing power in the wet season in 2019) The newly added 50W/T energy consumption in the wet season in 2019 is 10EH/ s (estimated), the total computing power of the newly added 60W/T energy consumption ratio mining machine is 33EH/s.It is roughly estimated that the number of new mining machines is about 910,000, which is nearly 1 million。
November 2019 to May 2020, the newly added computing power is 27EH/s, and the newly added mining machines are mainly 50W/T energy consumption ratio mining machines with an average computing power of 55TH/s and 40W/T energy consumption ratio mining machines with an average computing power of 95W/T. The former is The main shipping model. According to the estimate that the author is not responsible for, during this period, the new computing power of 50W/T mining machine is 22EH/s, and the new computing power of 40W/T mining machine is 5EH/s.It is roughly estimated that the number of new mining machines is about 450,000。
Overall,The number of newly added mining machines is about 1.3 million units each year, of which 1 million units are added during the wet season and 300,000 units are added during the dry season。
Before the halving, the proportion of various mining machines in the Bitcoin network
Before the third Bitcoin halving, the currency price fluctuated between 9,000-10,000 USDT, the mining computing power reached 120EH/s, and the 85W/T energy consumption ratio mining machine still had a mining profit of more than 40%.This means that at this time, the mining machines with an average energy consumption ratio of 85W/T and higher performance are all powered on and running。
According to the second part of the data, it is roughly estimated that before the halving, the average energy consumption ratio of the total computing power of the 40W/T mining machine is about5EH/s, the average energy consumption ratio is about 50W/T total computing power32EH/s, the average energy consumption ratio is about43EH/s. At this time, the total computing power is 120EH/s. Assuming that all the remaining computing power is provided by the mining machine with an average energy consumption ratio of 85W/T, the total computing power is40EH/s。
This data is consistent with December 2018, when the currency price fell to the bottom, and the net profit of the S9 mining machine, which was the mainstream mining machine at that time, was about to return to zero (this means that all other mining machines with higher power consumption have been shut down, and only the S9 and When the same type of mining machine is running), the computing power of the whole network is 36EH/s, which is basically the same (the total computing power is provided by the 85W/T mining machine, and there will be almost no new 85W/T mining machines after that).
Therefore, according to the author's model estimation, before the halving,as follows:as follows:
The above analysis is purely a model constructed by the author to estimate the scale and change trend of Bitcoin computing power. Although the source of basic data is a trusted third party, the dismantling and use of data are too subjective. Therefore,Again, this data only shares an idea of calculating the distribution of Bitcoin network mining machines, and does not serve as a reference。
