Computational Fantasy: Bitcoin’s 2020 Fengshui Computational Prediction
The halving of Bitcoin block rewards has led to a sharp drop in mining revenue, and the computing power of Bitcoin's entire network has plummeted within a week20EH/sexpectedexpected, after two difficulty adjustments, Bitcoin mining revenue will have a relatively large rebound in the short term.substantial improvement。
And with the unit power consumption (hereinafter referred to asenergy consumption ratio) is the latest generation of 40W/T mining machines, and mining machines with an energy consumption ratio of 45-65W/T continue to be shipped. It is not difficult to imagine that the Bitcoin network computing power will usher in a new peak in 2020.
Many miners who have entered the market or are still on the sidelines are wondering what the computing power will be this year. The author summarizes the data in recent years, and subjectively describes the trend of computing power in the next few months.Not for reference, just an idea。
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Figure 1 Changes in computing power in the last two years (data source:https://www.coinwarz.com/）
During the wet season in 2018(From the beginning of June to the end of October), the computing power of the entire Bitcoin network rose from 37EH/s to 53EH/s, an increase of 43%, and the number of new mining machines in the entire network exceeded1 million units(The average computing power of the main mining machine is about 14TH/s).
At this time, the main mining equipment of the whole network includes Bitmain’s S9 series mining machine, T9; Bitmain’s M3; Canaan’s A741, A841; Ebang International’s E9, E10; Innosilicon’s T2 and other models miner.image description。
Figure 2 Changes in Bitcoin computing power during the wet season in 2018 (data from:https://www.coinwarz.com/）
During the wet season in 2019, the computing power of Bitcoin's entire network rose from 50EH/s to 93EH/s, and the computing power increased by 86%. The number of new mining machines in the entire networkAbout 1 million units。
image description60W/T。
Figure 3 Changes in Bitcoin computing power during the wet season in 2019 (data from:https://www.coinwarz.com/）
Thanks to the emergence of higher-performance mining machines, the increase in computing power in the wet season of 2019 far exceeds that of the wet season in 2018, but the shipments of mining machines are not much different.
On the whole, in a short period of time, before there is a revolutionary technological breakthrough, it is limited to the upstream and downstream including chip production capacity, supply of components such as power supply and wire, and the assembly and production capacity of mining machine foundries.The production capacity of Bitcoin mining machines during the wet season is roughly estimated to be around 1 million units。
02 Current distribution of Bitcoin mining machines (estimation)
On May 11, 2020, before the halving of Bitcoin, the computing power of the entire network reached a historical peak of 120EH/s.85W/TMining machines with high energy consumption ratio still maintain a certain amount of mining income, as the main mining machine in 201960W/TEnergy consumption ratio mining machine, and the average energy consumption ratio represented by S17, T17, M20, M2150W/Tminer,is this timeProvides computing power for the Bitcoin networkmain equipment。
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Figure 4 Distribution of various mining machines before halving (data source: according to the author's imprecise estimation)
20202020wet season, the average energy consumption ratio of the main shipping mining machines is50W/TA batch of mining machines, the main representatives are S17, S17e, M31S and so on.
even40W/Teven30W/TDue to the newly launched mining machines, affected by factors such as chip production capacity constraints and assembly line running-in, the shipments should berelatively limited。
In the earlier generation, the energy consumption ratio was60W/Tmining machines, because they still retain mining revenue, and mining machine manufacturers are considering sharing the cost of mining machines, there may still beSmall quantity shipment。
03 Computing power during the wet season in 2020 (estimation)
After the halving, Bitcoin mining income plummeted, and most of the 85W/T energy consumption ratio mining machines chose to shut down because the mining income did not cover the electricity bill. As of now, the computing power of the entire network is stable at95EH/s-100EH/simage description
Figure 5 The current actual computing power of the entire Bitcoin network (data source:https://miningpoolstats.stream/）
If the computing power continues to stabilize at the current level, it is estimated that when the difficulty of Bitcoin mining is adjusted next time, the difficulty will continue to decrease by 10%-15%, and the mining income will increase by 11%-17%. In addition, the wet season has arrived, and it can be expected thatIn the next one or two difficulty cycles, when the price of Bitcoin did not plummet (stable above 8500USDT),after。
after, with the full entry into the flood season, all kinds of mining machines have entered the stage of mass shipment and put on the shelves, and the computing power will usher in a continuous surge.
hour,135EH/shour,85W/T mining machineThe mining income under Fengshui will beNot covered by electricity billsimage description
Figure 6 The income and expenditure of various mining machines (data source: calculated according to the Bitcoin network)
Remarks: ① The above table shows the mining revenue and electricity expenses of various mining machines with a computing power of 1PH/s when the computing power reaches 135EH/s and the mining difficulty is adjusted; After the block reward is halved, the portion of rewards from handling fees will account for a relatively high proportion of the total mining revenue, which cannot be ignored. Here, the proportion of rewards from handling fees is calculated as 11%; The exchange rate is calculated on the basis of 1USD=7CNY; ④ The electricity price is calculated on the basis of 0.23 yuan/kWh.
At this time, the new computing power of the whole network15EH/sAbout, it is expected to need to addMore than 200,000 unitsMining machines are enough. According to the computing power growth and mining machine shipments in 2018 and 2019, it will probably take1 month. ArriveAt the end of July and the beginning of August, the 85W/T mining machine ushered in another wave of shutdown。
The computing power of the whole network reachesAfter 135EH/s, every time a batch of new mining machines is added, a batch of 85W/T computing power will be withdrawn. However, in a short period of time, this is not carried out synchronously. Since the mining difficulty of Bitcoin is adjusted every 2016 blocks (about two weeks), this computing power competition will be based onMost of the 85W/T mining machines are turned off (difficulty increases) and turned on again (difficulty decreases)state, which continues until the average energy consumption ratio60W/T, 50W/T and 40W/Tmining machine,The total computing power reaches 135EH/s, at this time, all 85W/T energy consumption ratio mining machines have been cleared out of the Bitcoin computing power market.
At this time, the new computing power of the whole network is nearly40EH/s, it is estimated that nearly600,000 mining machines, to achieve this computing power. According to the historical shipment speed of mining machine manufacturers, it will probably take3 to 5 months(Affected by the epidemic, the actual shipment speed may be slower), that is, under the condition that the currency price will not plummet (below 8500USDT), it is expected toFrom October to December, mining machines with an energy consumption ratio of 85W/T were completely withdrawn from the computing power market.
After that, electricity costs accounted for less than 60% of the mining revenue of the mining machines with an average energy consumption ratio of 60W/T, 50W/T and 40W/T, and still maintain a relatively high mining revenue.
Instead, to reduce the average energy consumption ratio60W/TThe mining machine needs the computing power of the whole network to reach190EH/s, the Bitcoin network needs to add another 55EH/s computing power, and about 800,000 new mining machines are needed. Optimistically, it is alsoimage description。
Figure 7 When the 60W/T mine is shut down, the income and expenditure of various mining machines (data source: calculated according to the Bitcoin network)
Remarks: ① The above table shows the mining income and electricity expenses of various mining machines with a computing power of 1PH/s when the 60W/T mine is shut down, the computing power reaches 190EH/s, and the mining difficulty is adjusted; ② ③ ④ Same as Remarks for Figure 6.
Therefore, it can be concluded that mining machines with an average energy consumption ratio of 60W/T and lower energy consumption ratio mining machines will not quit mining during the wet season in 2020.There is only one factor limiting the peak computing power during the wet season in 2020, and that is the shipment speed of mining machine manufacturers。
According to the wet season, the total shipment volume is estimated at 1 million units. When the currency price does not fluctuate violently (stable at 8500USDT-9500USDT),During the wet season in 2020, the computing power of the entire network will reach a maximum of 150EH/s: by the end of July, the computing power of the entire network will increase to 135EH/s; then the computing power of the entire network will fluctuate in the range of 105EH/s-145EH/s until early October , the 85W/T mining machine was completely withdrawn, and the computing power began to rise steadily, reaching a maximum of 150EH/s, and the flood season ended. There will be a round of computing power fluctuations in the future.
Rhapsody 1:Currency prices soared, the 85W/T mining machine was restarted, and when the currency price exceeded 11500USDT, all 85W/T mining machines had net profits from mining, and the computing power of the entire network skyrocketed to 190EH/s.
Rhapsody 2:Currency prices plummeted, 85W/T mining machines will be retired in advance, and the computing power of the entire network will experience a decline first and then rise, and finally increase steadily, reaching 150EH/s. Subsequently, the currency price continued to decline, the currency price fell below 7000USDT, and some 60W/T mining machines began to shut down. When the currency price continued to decline, the Bitcoin network dynamically adjusted the mining difficulty to increase the mining income to maintain the entire network computing power. When the currency price falls below 5000USDT, the 60W/T mining machine will be bloodbathed and all will be cleared out of the Bitcoin computing power market.
