Polymarket's probability of "the U.S. 5-year Treasury yield reaching 5.15% before 2027" has risen to 40%, up 30% in 24 hours

According to monitoring by PPP prediction market tool, Polymarket's probability of "the U.S. 5-year Treasury yield reaching 5.15% before 2027" has risen to 40%, up 30% in 24 hours.

If the U.S. 5-year Treasury yield reaches or exceeds the specified value on any day during the period from the creation date of this prediction market through December 31, 2026, the event will resolve as "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve as "No".

Once the U.S. 5-year Treasury yield reaches or exceeds the specified value, the event will resolve immediately; if it does not, it will resolve after the data for December 31, 2026 is published. If, as of 23:59 ET on January 14, 2027, no qualifying value has yet been published and the data for December 31, 2026 remains unavailable, the event will resolve as "No".

Resolution is based on the "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" data published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, specifically the "5 Yr" (5-year) column.

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