World Bank: Commodity Prices Projected to Rise 23% in 2026, Global Oil Supply to Fall 5.2%

Odaily: The World Bank said on Wednesday that global commodity prices are projected to rise 23% in 2026, driven by factors including higher energy prices during the Middle East war, disrupted shipping, obstructed grain transportation through the Black Sea, and strong demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report, the World Bank noted that oil, natural gas, food, and metals prices have all risen sharply this year as global shocks continue to intensify. The situation could deteriorate further if the Middle East conflict escalates and Russian oil infrastructure continues to be damaged.

The report forecasts that commodity prices will fall 7% next year. However, if shocks persist—including what could be the most severe El Niño phenomenon since 1950—food commodity prices may remain elevated, increasing the risk of rising inflation and tighter monetary policy. The World Bank noted that global oil inventories have been steadily depleted during the Middle East war. It expects global oil supply to decline 5.2% in 2026, the largest drop in the past 40 years outside of the 2020 global recession.