Analyst: Increased turnover among BTC long-term holders, phased selling pressure release may reduce resistance for future upside

Odaily News: On-chain analyst Murphy posted on X platform that from October 7 to 8, Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) transferred approximately 32,000 BTC to exchanges, marking the second-largest single-day inflow since the major sell-off on February 5 this year. However, during the same period, a U.S. government-related wallet transferred approximately 17,200 BTC to Coinbase Prime. Given that this platform serves as the official custodian and trading service provider for the U.S. Marshals Service, the related transfer does not necessarily indicate a sale. After excluding this portion, the notable potential selling pressure amounts to approximately 14,800 BTC, primarily from long-term holdings with coin ages of 6 to 12 months and 3 to 5 years.

Murphy noted that the long-term holder coins spent on October 8 had an average coin age of 712 days, higher than the 651 days on July 14, indicating that earlier holdings are gradually participating in turnover. He believes that long-term holder distribution during the bull-bear transition phase is not necessarily bearish. The phased release of selling pressure helps with coin redistribution, and the key lies in whether market demand can effectively absorb it. If new capital can digest the supply, sufficient turnover may actually reduce resistance for subsequent market movements.