Insiders: CLARITY May Be Split into Multiple Independent Bills Targeting Different Market Segments

Odaily News – Andy, host of The Rollup podcast, stated on X that rumors circulating on Capitol Hill suggest the CLARITY Act has almost zero chance of passing. While Polymarket's prediction probability shows 18%, the real odds are likely only around 3%–5%.

According to his sources, it is widely understood within Washington D.C. that the bill cannot pass, but no one can openly say so, as the industry has already poured tens of millions of dollars and 18 months of resources into pushing it forward. The Democratic Party's ethical scrutiny over Trump's crypto-related business interests has yet to receive substantive answers. With that in mind, the odds for YES on prediction markets appear somewhat overvalued, and NO might be a direction worth watching.

Andy: "The CLARITY Act may subsequently be 'split into several independent bills,' each targeting specific segments of the crypto market. After the CLARITY Act's failure, what may follow are innovation exemptions, regulations, or sub-bills addressing stablecoins, asset tokenization, perpetual contracts, and prediction markets. At this stage, lawmakers appear more inclined toward a segmented, granular approach rather than introducing one sweeping, all-encompassing crypto bill. Based on my conversations with insiders in Washington, this is the more likely scenario in the long run."